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Daily Report 28-Jun-22

Indian market manages to hold on to gap-up opening giving up minor gain by end of day yesterday, manages to close above crucial technical level.

Wall Street ended flat to negative in a quite session as data dry going into month end.  Growth stocks saw some profit booking.

Approach on Indices: Weekly setup for Indices is bullish, today’s morning cues are weak.  We remain positive after yesterday closing above on Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 33691.

Market View: Global cues are muted after many days, domestic news had very little impact in this month, F&O expiry & technical indicate rally to continue.  Going into Tuesday’s trade with muted expectation but important for market to hold on to yesterday’s gain.

SGX Nifty @ 15790 down 42 points at 7:50 AM. 

IT & Banking stocks, we will be watching this closely ahead of F&O expiry with a potential to reach our weekly target on Nifty @ 16178 & Banknifty @ 34557.

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Daily Report 27-Jun-22

Wall Street rallied on Friday on major indices 2.68% – 3.34% as tech stocks seen buying.

Final F&O expiry for June series this week, SGX Nifty indicates opening above 15850 – highest level in last 2 weeks, since 13-Jun-22.

Nifty: above 15798 could test 16178 & 20-DMA @ 16025 could face some minor resistance.  So now Nifty @ 15563 remains important support level.

Banknifty: above 33691 could test 34557 in near term.  Banknifty RSI @ 45.44 & RSI average @ 38.58 showing similar chart formation as Nifty.

Approach on Indices: Avoid buying in gap-up opening, Nifty could test 15798 & Banknifty @ 33691 and remains key immediate support, holding on this level during the day will be positive.

SGX Nifty @ 15870 up 169 points at 7:55 AM.  

Indices is opening above resistance zone after gap-down opening on 13-Jun-22, reacting to US Inflation data where US Fed increase rate by 75 bps instead of 50 bps expected before inflation data released on 10-Jun-22.  First hour trade will be crucial after gap-up opening, any sustain up move could be seen in 2nd half.

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Daily Report 24-Jun-22

Crazy move: Indian market move yesterday could be termed as roller coaster.  Index weekly options expiry play at its best.

Wall Street ended volatile session with minor gains.  Defensive & tech stocks were up, Nasdaq was up 1.62%.

US Fed annual “stress test” showed the banks have enough capital to whether severe economic downturn and paves way for buyback & dividend.

Auto stocks led from the front as all top 5 Nifty gainers were auto stocks & Reliance was down as crude oil cool-off.

VIX @ 20.88: below 22 – indicate comfortable zone, no major fall seen in near term.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 – can go long with review or stop-loss if Index goes below this level.

Market View: Recent low on Indices made on 16 – 17 June, most of the stocks are trading near their respective recent lows.  Indices & stocks are around 2 – 4% from recent lows.  Time to do some bottom fishing, rally before final F&O expiry & before next quarter result season.  Review or plan exit if Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 are broken.

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Daily Report 22-Jun-22

Indian market manages to close by around 1.5% on major indices and around 3.5% on Mid-Cap & Small-Cap indices on back of strong short-covering.  Last hour sell-off on a otherwise strong day of trading.

Wall Street was up 2.15% to 2.51% on major indices on back of short-covering.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies before Senate & Finance committee today at 7 PM IST.

VIX @ 21.14: Cooled-off yesterday, VIX remaining under 22 indicates low volatility going ahead.

Approach on Indices: Going into trade with mix signal with global cues indicating risk-off sentiment.  Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 32787 remains our target and resistance zone.

Market View: F&O data indicates further short-covering to continue where as global cues indicate risk-off & weak global cues.  Crude oil down over as recession fear.

Stock in focus: Oil refiners & Metal stocks could resume down move.

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Daily Report 21-Jun-22

Blood bath in broader market as major indices manage to close in flat in a volatile session.

Australian central bank, RBA hints at more hike in a meeting minute released today as inflation seen at 7% compared to previous forecast of 6%.

VIX @ 22.41: was high at 23.64 in opening but cooled-off during second half.  Cool-off below 22 could trigger another short-covering on Indices.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 – can go long till this level are hold on to, and review long position once this level is broken.

Market View: Most of bad news in short-term have been factored although medium to long term overhang remains, currently on technical & F&O data indicate – Market in oversold zone.

Stocks in focus: IT & Cement stocks – due for bounce.

SGX Nifty @ 15411 up 49 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 20-Jun-22

On weekly basis, major indices were down by around 5% to 5.5% and Small-Cap 100 down by 7.91%.  Friday, market ended volatile session with minor cuts.

Oil prices corrected by more than $10 compared to Friday evening to current rate, mainly on fear of recession in US, over production in Russia and pressure on demand.

Any technical bounce: Banknifty could test 33787 with 32366 is short term support.  On lower side Banknifty could test 30946 & 30069.

VIX @ 22.76: Continue to trade above comfort level of 22, and move up 25 could turn highly volatile.  Indices are below March & May 2022 low and VIX above 25 is a deadly combination.

For Bulls – important support level Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 remains key support and will need to review long position.  For bears – downward momentum may accelerate once below this important support level.  We would prefer to add short / hedge existing long once Indices below this level.

SGX Nifty @ 15264 down 51.50 points at 7:50 AM.  

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Daily Report 17-Jun-22

Market reacted to 75 bps hike by US Fed on Thursday, Indian market was down by around 2%.  

Wall Street was down by 2.42% to 4.08%.  Recession fear grips the market as US Fed set the goal clear to bring inflation under control.  DOW30 closed below 30000 level mark.

Direct Tax Collections Jump 51%, Advance Tax Mop-Up Rises 48% In Q1 FY23.

VIX @ 22.87: Yesterday’s opening hour trade – cooled-off as per expectation, but sell-off triggered sharp rebound in VIX.  If VIX manages to go above 25 – expect more volatility.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicates flat opening around 15350 level, as we mentioned around closing time – high VIX and Indices below May & March 2022 lows create deadly combination.  

SGX Nifty @ 15352.50 up 43 points at 7:50 AM

Whether Indices could witness after a sharp sell-off?  Indices at fresh 52-week-low making technical chart looks highly bearish and indicate worst is yet to come, we expect sell-off in first half to yesterday low or even lower and any sustainable bounce likely in 2nd half or on Monday.  FII long exposure continue below 12%.

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Daily Report 16-Jun-22

US Fed increase rate by 75 bps, highest hike since November 1994.  US Fed guides rate by 3.4% by 2022, 3.8% by 2023 & 3.4% by 2024.

Fed Chair Powell: Don’t expect move of 75 bps to be common, next rate hike could be 50 bps or 75 bps based on data.

VIX @ 22.15: Increase yesterday in last half hour – going into US Fed event, we expect to cool-off significantly today.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicates opening around 15800 level & weekly option expiry will play its role after initial opening.  

Market View: went into US Fed event with binary expectation, witness sharp increase in premium in last half hour, will witness premium erosion in opening trade.  US market reaction post Fed meeting have been muted.  Major event is out, expect a relief rally, time to accumulate stocks with recent low as review

Going into US Fed event, we expect 300 points gap-up / gap-down opening but market opening indicates around 100 points gap-up opening.  Market continues to trade in oversold zone, we still remain optimistic and expect Nifty to test 16000 & Banknifty to test 34000 during the day today.

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Daily Report 15-Jun-22

After a sharp move on Monday, yesterday was a volatile session trading in narrow range.  F&O data indicates market currently in oversold zone. WPI inflation @ 15.9%.

Wall Street ended with minor cuts; Nasdaq was flat to positive with 0.18% gain.  

VIX @ 21.89: Still within comfort level.  Will be watching VIX closely today as going into US FOMC outcome tonight.

Approach on Indices: Evenly poised for 500 points move on Nifty on either side.  F&O data indicates highly oversold zone.

Market View: 75 bps hike by US Fed is factored in and Indian market and F&O data indicates – currently in highly oversold zone.  After yesterday F&O data reading, we see strong chance of sharp bounce, still market will go into event on a cautious note.

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Daily Report 13-Jun-22

Wall Street was down from 2.73% to 3.52% as growth stocks continue to drag market down.  Going into US FOMC meeting outcome on 15-Jun-22, risk-off continues

Meltdown in Crypto currency continues as Bitcoin now below $26000.  Dollar Index @ 104.373 & US 10-year bond yield @ 3.20%.

VIX @ 19.58: today likely to open around 22 level.  We would turn cautious if VIX crosses 25 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicates opening around 15860 level, back to March & May 2022 lows, approaching 3rd time. 

Market View: Market approach “Play for June – Technical bounce” now seems to be over and we need to closely watch whether the market is able to hold on to it.  Global risk-off continues as tight monitory policy will money will move to safe asset classes.

Wall Street was down from 2.73% to 3.52% as growth stocks continue to drag market down.  Going into US FOMC meeting outcome on 15-Jun-22, risk-off continues

Next major event for global market is US FOMC meeting outcome on 15-Jun-22.  Indian market will react to it on 16-Jun-22.  Indian inflation & IIP data due to released today & WPI data to be released on 14-Jun-22.  Remain light & prefer hedge position.

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