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Daily Report 12-Jul-22

IT stocks as expected were down, reacting to TCS ‘s numbers.  Banking stocks outperformed as Banknifty was up 0.98% while Nifty was flat.

RBI rolls out global trade settlement system in Rupee: long term & strategic steps by RBI.  This step will help bi-lateral trade settlement with countries like Russia & Iran.  Strength for INR.

VIX @ 18.37: continue to trade below 20, comfortable zone.  Indicates low volatility.

Approach on Indices: Banknifty PCR @ 1.34, indicate overbought zone.  Nifty find resistance at 16255 level.  Look for support on Nifty @ 15970 & Banknifty @ 34602.

SGX Nifty @ 16071.50 down 127 points at 8:30 AM

Market View: Broader market along with Banknifty was up around 1%.  Recession fear may provide much needed trigger for correction as important data in next few days.  US Fed expected to raise interest rate by 75 bps in 27-Jul-22 FOMC meeting.

Global risk-off on recession fear grips the market and Dollar Index at fresh 2-decade high on back on unprecedented weakness in EURO.  Global flows moving back to safe heaven & at the same time, gold prices continue to trade near $1740 is surprising.   HCLTECH to declare result today, any positive surprise could be taken well by market we expect limited downside from current level.

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Daily Report 11-Jul-22

TCS result may react negative with IT stocks, corporate earnings & economic data will continue to dominate this week.  India’s CPI on 12-July.

Telecom News: 5G Auction.  Adani Telecom will be the fourth player to bid in 5G auction along with JIO, BHARTI & VI.  However, Adani Group clarified – no planning to enter consumer mobility.

Telecom News: 5G Auction.  Adani Telecom will be the fourth player to bid in 5G auction along with JIO, BHARTI & VI.  However, Adani Group clarified – no planning to enter consumer mobility.

Approach on Indices: Looking for support on Nifty @ 15970 & Banknifty @ 34228 and breakout if Nifty manages to cross 16255.

Market View: Rally in last week was supported by weak food and energy prices, which was main cause of inflation.  Crude oil & Agriculture prices have recovered from last week’s low.  Consolidation looks likely before fresh set of news and triggers.

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Daily Report 8-Jul-22

Banknifty outperformed Nifty – as expected from Wednesday’s EDO F&O data.  Upside may have been capped due to weekly Index options expiry.

Crude oil & Metal stocks bounce after China announce $220 billion stimulus package with unprecedented bond sales.

VIX @ 19.20: Finally, below 20 – positive for market.

Approach on Indices: Will be opening right at resistance level.  Reduce long and short only in any sign of weakness.  Resistance level on Nifty @ 16255 & Banknifty @ 35646.

Market View: TCS earnings today, US Economic data due today.  Gap up opening – reduce long exposure & Book profit by 10% to 20%.

SGX Nifty @ 16278.50 up 145.50 points at 8:00 AM.

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Daily Report 7-Jul-22

RBI Takes Steps To liberalize Forex Flows Amid Weakening Rupee, positive for Banks also.

F&O data: Perfect setup for short covering rally.  FII added 20983 contracts in Index futures and sold Put contract by 80726 contracts.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.38 indicates overbought zone.

VIX @ 20.27: Within comfortable zone of 20 – 22.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate opening around 16100, F&O data indicate – huge short covering.  Today is weekly options expiry.  Nifty likely closing around 16150 – 16200 & Banknifty can test 35000.  Stay long for the day.

Market View: Today’s setup looks bullish all-around, but focus will soon shift to corporate earnings.  TCS comes out with result on 8-Jul-22 after market hours.

SGX Nifty @ 16102 up 119.50 points at 8:05 AM

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Daily Report 6-Jul-22

Indian market was strong in 1st half, sold off on global risk-off cues.  Nifty tested 16000 level but ended flat to negative on major indices.

Wall Street was down more than 2% in opening trade, but recovered by closing to end DOW30 with minor loss, S&P500 was flat and Nasdaq ended with 1.75% gain.

VIX @ 20.79: VIX continue to trade in 20 – 22 range, within comfortable range.  Any sharp increase in VIX – will need to turn cautious.

Approach on Indices: Nifty PCR @ 0.93, back below 1 from previous PCR @ 1.13.  Global cues will continue to dominate.  Major downward trend once Nifty @ 15563 & Banknifty @ 33156 are broken.

US Data – today’s release: JOLTS Job opening and US FOMC Meeting minutes.

SGX Nifty @ 15801 up 35 points at 8:45 AM

SGX Nifty indicate opening around 15800 level.  What is this fear all about – Recession in US?  Q2 GDP data of US will be released on 28-Jul-22 which will confirm.  It is time to focus on capital protection and we expect volatility to only increase before some stability returns.

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Daily Report 5-Jul-22

Indian market witness late recovery in relatively quite session yesterday, Banknifty was up 1.20% outperformed.

Trade deficit rose to $25.6 billion in June, a record high, compared with $24.3 billion in the preceding month, Exports rose 16.8% year-on-year to $37.9 billion. On a month-on-month basis, exports fell 2.6%.

VIX @ 20.97: Yesterday made an attempt to cross 22 level but later cooled-down in 2nd half as Indices rallied.

Approach on Indices: Review on long position in short term – Nifty @ 15563 & Banknifty @ 33156.  

SGX Nifty @ 15836 up 12.50 points at 8:15 AM

SGX Nifty indicates flat opening after surprising 2nd half rally yesterday.  Economic data from US & Europe will start from tomorrow, today also there is no major global cues.  IT stocks would be in focus ahead of TCS result on 8-Jul-22.  FII constant selling continue to remain a key concern going into result season.

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Daily Report 4-Jul-22

Windfall tax on Oil refiners & Oil exporters including units in SEZ, RELIANCE, ONGC and other oil refiners corrected heavily on Friday.

US 10-year bond yield is trading below 3% mark & Dollar Index near 105 – typical risk-off indicator.  Wall Street was higher around 1% on all 3 major indices.

Time to focus on individual stocks, sectors and for broad base move – need to looks at data & events from US & Europe.  Globally market narrative will continue to be recession fear, interest rate & Corporate earnings.  Quarterly business updates by DMART & HDFC were robust.

HDFCBANK & HDFC merger: No objection from stock exchanges.

OIL & GAS: will continue to remain weak in today season as well.  We believe another 5% correction from current level will be attractive.

SGX Nifty @ 15723 down 21.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Report 1-Jul-22

Core sector growth surges to 18.1% in May.  IIP numbers will get boost from this numbers for month of May to be released in 2 weeks.  Fiscal deficit at 12.3% of full year target.

VIX @ 21.84: remains within comfortable range, will turn cautious only above 24 – 25 level.

Approach on Indices: F&O expiry for June series over, soon monthly data to start flowing and quarterly result season.  Nifty @ 15563 & Banknifty @ 33006 watching out support level on Indices.

RBI Financial stability report released on 30-Jun-22: sees bad loan falling in FY23.  Baseline scenario – Gross NPA to fall from 5.3% from 5.9%.  Asset quality improved in FY22.  Positive for Banking stocks.

SGX Nifty @ 15716.50 down 6 points at 8:05 AM

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Daily Report 30-Jun-22

Indian market, gap-down opening of 150 points on Nifty but manage close with minor loss on back of Reliance.  Banking stocks continue to remain weak.  Banknifty down by 1.11%.

Wall Street closed flat after US Fed chair Jerome Powell comments – continue to focus on inflation, price stability remains key target.

SGX Nifty @ 15755.50 down 22 points at 8:15 AM

Today’s expiry move could drive, FII selling reduced in cash segment could through positive surprise, going into today’s trade with mix setup.

Market View: RELIANCE, HDFC twins, BAJAJ twins could remain in focus due to expiry day.  Banknifty in focus as it is expected to give wide swing today.

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Daily Report 29-Jun-22

Indian market closed flat in an attempt to close above important support level in 2nd half led by IT stocks.

Wall Street resumed its sell-off post poor US consumer confidence fell to 98.70 in June Vs 103.2 in May.  DOW30 was down 1.56% & Nasdaq down by 2.98%.

VIX @ 21.45: expected to open above 22 and warrant cautious in case VIX attempt to move above 24 – 25 level going into next series.

Approach on Indices: Monday gap-up – got sold into, Tuesday gap-down – later recovery.  Today indicated gap-down – downward momentum could get build into ahead of expiry.  For short position – review on Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 33691.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.98 compared to 1.03 – stable.  FII Long: Short @ 24.61%:75.39%.

SGX Nifty @ 15708 down 145.50 points at 8:20 AM

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