Month: October 2022

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 21-Oct-22

AXISBANK, BAJFINANCE & ITC result beat market expectation.  Long term story becomes strong but could see some profit booking at higher level.

Key earnings today: RELIANCE, HINDUNILVR, BAJAJFINSV, HDFCLIFE, JSWSTEEL, IDBI, HINDZINC & DLF.

VIX @ 17.23: watch out for any reversal once VIX goes below 17.

Approach on Indices:  SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, Nifty above 17591 & Banknifty above 40659 would resume uptrend, we can assume, it is correction rally / technical bounce in down-trend.

Market View: Corporate earnings remains key reason for rally and we see this as positive sign.  IT participation could help indices to break-out from range.  RELIANCE, KOTKABANK & ICICIBANK will react to result on 24-Oct-22 (Mahurat trading day)

SGX Nifty @ 17550.50 up 30.50 points at 8:10 AM.

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Daily Reprot 20-Oct-22

USD/INR @ 83, at historic low.  US Dollar continues to rise again major currency globally.  USD at fresh high against Chinese yuan.

Weekly options expiry will be in focus and index heavy earnings today.

VIX @ 17.49: expect reversal once VIX below 17 level

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 17285 & Banknifty @ 40138 is near term support, once Nifty above 17591 & Banknifty above 40659 – indices will enter momentum zone and can expect sharp rally once this level is crossed.

Market View: SGX Nifty indicate gap-down opening of around 120 – 150 points, we expect recovery and see limited downside due to weekly options expiry.  Use this correction to add fresh long with stock specific approach.

SGX Nifty @ 17363.50 down 140.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Report 19-Oct-22

Wall Street had another round of rally as Goldman Sachs result was above market estimate.  US indices closed with rally around 1%.  NETFLIX earnings after market hours beat market estimate.

FII cover short by 27396 contracts as now short position stands at 30%, more short covering possible.

VIX @ 17.45: in recent times trend reverses on VIX below 17 level.

Approach on Indices: We would like to see some consolidation to take fresh entry and prefer to play long, indices likely to enter momentum zone.

Market View: global earnings are helping momentum in Indian market as well; we expect earnings to continue to drive near term market.  With 3 days before Diwali Mahurat trading day, we expect some fireworks supported by short covering rally.  Some consolidation at current level would be healthy for fresh entry.

SGX Nifty @ 17525.50 up 30.50 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Report 12-Oct-22

Nifty PCR @ 0.72 Vs 1.05 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 0.72 Vs 0.99 previous.  Nifty PCR indicate highly oversold zone.

FII Long: Short exposure in F&O futures contract now stands at 14.68:85.32.  Only 14.68% long indicate highly oversold zone.  Last hour sell-off was mainly due to FII selling and global cues are stable.

VIX @ 20.49: sharp increase in VIX in last hour of trading yesterday.  Today’s if VIX sustains & moves higher or not needs to be seen.

Approach on Indices: Indices are heading towards important support zone of Nifty @ 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386.  Turn bearish only if these levels are broken.

Market View: IT failed to cheer the market, FII sell-off in cash segment and global cues are some near tern hurdles.  We are finding opportunity to add long and prefer to play long till some important levels are held on.  Any reversal trend would come post US inflation data on 13-Oct-22.

SGX Nifty @ 17008 up 68 points at 8:40 AM

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Daily Report 11-Oct-22

TCS result beat market expectation, with steady margin and strong order book, result was better on all count, attrition remain at 21.5% on TTM basis compared to 19.7% as of June 2022.

INFY to consider buyback along with its result on 13-Oct-22.

VIX @ 19.62: If VIX moves above 20, need to turn cautious.

Approach on Indices: Nifty below 17095 & Banknifty below 38437 – need to turn cautious and major up move only once Nifty @ 17591 & Banknifty @ 40138 is crossed.

Market View: Geo-political tension on rise, as its not a new event for market, there is not knee-jerk reaction but fresh escalation will have economic consequences.  US Economic data & result will continue to dominate market movement.

Stocks in focus: TCS, INFY & IT stocks.  Defense stocks – HAL, BDL & BEL.  

SGX Nifty @ 17163 down 65 points at 8:20 AM

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Daily Report 10-Oct-22

US Economic data came strong, non-farm employment change & Unemployment rate both were strong.  Currently strong economic data – market reacts negatively as US Fed would continue to follow tight monitory policy.

Wall Street was down 2.11% to 3.80%, as strong economic data diminish any of hope of US Fed to pivot in near term.  Nasdaq was down by 3.80%.

US economic data on 12th & 13th will also be important event for further cues.

VIX @ 18.81: today likely to open around 20 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate around 300 points gap-down opening on weak global cues.  We expect limited downside in Indian market, no major weakness on chart as on Friday’s closing.

We would contrarian bullish till Nifty @ 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386 are holding on to indices on closing basis.  Global narrative do have a tendency to change fast on economic data.

SGX Nifty @ 17045.50 down 268.50 points at 7:45 AM

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Daily Report 7-Oct-22

Wall Street ended with around 1% cuts as focus continues whether US Fed will pivot or not?  Important monthly jobs data due to be released today remains in focus.

OPEC+ nations decided to decrease production by 2 million bpd from 1-Nov-22, triggered fresh inflation fears as Crude oil now up more than 10% from its recent lows.

World Bank has cut India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY23 from 7.5% forecasted in June.

VIX @ 19.32: below 20 – within comfortable level.

Approach on Indices: Indices likely to consolidate before any fresh up move, Nifty @ 17591 & Banknifty @ 40138 remains key resistance / target level.

Stocks in focus: ICICIBANK, LT, DLF, IRCTC, UBL, AEGISCHEM & EIDPARRY.

SGX Nifty @ 17268 down 48 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Report 6-Oct-22

OPEC+ nations continue to cut production, set target for cut of 2 million BPD starting from November 2022.  WTI Crude & Brent Crude rallied over 2%.

Wall Street ended yesterday’s session off from day’s low after more than 5% rally on Monday & Tuesday on expectation of US Fed to pivot.  

Weekly options expiry today: FII covered 30134 short contracts on Tuesday; Long: Short exposure in future stands at 19.29:80.71.

VIX @ 19.57: back to below 20 level, in comfortable zone.

Approach on Indices: Indices bounce from over-sold zone; we would prefer to play long with immediate target on Nifty @ 17591 & Banknifty @ 40138 & support on Nifty @ 17095 & Banknifty @ 38437.

SGX Nifty @ 17424.50 up 118.50 points (NF @ 17306) at 8:35 AM.

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Daily Report 4-Oct-22

UK takes a U-turn on tax cut announcement after market turmoil.  CREDIT SUISEE & DEUTSCHE BANK continue to pose risk in near term as market fear repeat of LEHMAN 2008 – 09 moments.

U.N. call US Fed and other central banks to halt interest rate hike, Gold now back above $1700.  

VIX @ 21.36: fresh cautious if VIX goes above 22 – 23 level.

Approach on Indices: Indices to test upper end of the range today and we see high probability of breakout on upside going into result season starting from next week.

Market View: We continue to focus on domestic economy stocks, FII Long: Short exposure now stands at 13.37:86.63.  Nifty above 17166 & Banknifty above 38811 could trigger short covering rally.

Time to go long with Friday’s low on Nifty @ 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386.50 as review long or Stop-loss.

SGX Nifty @ 17110 up 241.50 points at 8:05 AM.

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Daily Report 3-Oct-22

Buzz over social median on likely stress for CREDIT SUISEE & DEUTSCHE BANK and question of likely situation of repeat of LEHMAN BROTHERS, as CDS of both these banks were at 2009 level.

Natural Gas prices increase to $8.57/ MMBTU from $6.1 and rates for Reliance-BP gas field increase to $12.46/MMBTU.

VIX @ 19.97: back to below 20, likely to remain in 20 – 22 range.

Approach on Indices: Currently we believe Nifty range 16800 – 17100 & Banknifty range 38000 – 38800 is in accumulation zone.  Break-out on Nifty above 17166 & Banknifty above 39432 would turn market trend positive and open significant upside.

SGX Nifty @ 16953 down 135 points at 7:55 AM

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