Month: June 2022

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-Jun-22

Indian market, gap-down opening of 150 points on Nifty but manage close with minor loss on back of Reliance.  Banking stocks continue to remain weak.  Banknifty down by 1.11%.

Wall Street closed flat after US Fed chair Jerome Powell comments – continue to focus on inflation, price stability remains key target.

SGX Nifty @ 15755.50 down 22 points at 8:15 AM

Today’s expiry move could drive, FII selling reduced in cash segment could through positive surprise, going into today’s trade with mix setup.

Market View: RELIANCE, HDFC twins, BAJAJ twins could remain in focus due to expiry day.  Banknifty in focus as it is expected to give wide swing today.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 29-Jun-22

Indian market closed flat in an attempt to close above important support level in 2nd half led by IT stocks.

Wall Street resumed its sell-off post poor US consumer confidence fell to 98.70 in June Vs 103.2 in May.  DOW30 was down 1.56% & Nasdaq down by 2.98%.

VIX @ 21.45: expected to open above 22 and warrant cautious in case VIX attempt to move above 24 – 25 level going into next series.

Approach on Indices: Monday gap-up – got sold into, Tuesday gap-down – later recovery.  Today indicated gap-down – downward momentum could get build into ahead of expiry.  For short position – review on Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 33691.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.98 compared to 1.03 – stable.  FII Long: Short @ 24.61%:75.39%.

SGX Nifty @ 15708 down 145.50 points at 8:20 AM

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Daily Report 28-Jun-22

Indian market manages to hold on to gap-up opening giving up minor gain by end of day yesterday, manages to close above crucial technical level.

Wall Street ended flat to negative in a quite session as data dry going into month end.  Growth stocks saw some profit booking.

Approach on Indices: Weekly setup for Indices is bullish, today’s morning cues are weak.  We remain positive after yesterday closing above on Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 33691.

Market View: Global cues are muted after many days, domestic news had very little impact in this month, F&O expiry & technical indicate rally to continue.  Going into Tuesday’s trade with muted expectation but important for market to hold on to yesterday’s gain.

SGX Nifty @ 15790 down 42 points at 7:50 AM. 

IT & Banking stocks, we will be watching this closely ahead of F&O expiry with a potential to reach our weekly target on Nifty @ 16178 & Banknifty @ 34557.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 27-Jun-22

Wall Street rallied on Friday on major indices 2.68% – 3.34% as tech stocks seen buying.

Final F&O expiry for June series this week, SGX Nifty indicates opening above 15850 – highest level in last 2 weeks, since 13-Jun-22.

Nifty: above 15798 could test 16178 & 20-DMA @ 16025 could face some minor resistance.  So now Nifty @ 15563 remains important support level.

Banknifty: above 33691 could test 34557 in near term.  Banknifty RSI @ 45.44 & RSI average @ 38.58 showing similar chart formation as Nifty.

Approach on Indices: Avoid buying in gap-up opening, Nifty could test 15798 & Banknifty @ 33691 and remains key immediate support, holding on this level during the day will be positive.

SGX Nifty @ 15870 up 169 points at 7:55 AM.  

Indices is opening above resistance zone after gap-down opening on 13-Jun-22, reacting to US Inflation data where US Fed increase rate by 75 bps instead of 50 bps expected before inflation data released on 10-Jun-22.  First hour trade will be crucial after gap-up opening, any sustain up move could be seen in 2nd half.

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Research Report

Global Market – Questions, question & Questions?

In last 3 weeks we have covered 3 important subjects going into key central banks events and last week analyzing US Fed’s move.  

1) Food inflation & Energy inflation – 4th June 2022
2) Central Banks – Sacrifice growth to control inflation – 11th June 2022
3) US Fed preparing for crash landing – 18th June 2022

This week we will try and analyze whether financial market globally have come to term with the changing dynamics or financial market needs to be prepared for worst outcome?  We would mention here 3 question and share our views on it.

1) Does Central banks can control Food inflation & Energy inflation by increasing interest rate?
2) US market (mother market) – is it in bear market?
3) US Fed (most powerful central bank) – pushing world in another crisis only to save it later?

Please read this as our disclaimer: we are optimistic on market with long term view and also remain bullish with short term view going into result season.  In medium term, let us say for next 1 – 2 quarter, globally narratives and dynamics are changing very fast.
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Weekly Reports

25-Jun-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our last weekly update, we expected technical bounce from lower level, provided the levels on Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 are not broken.

Auto stocks outperformed as metal prices continue to decline.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony to US Senate and banking committee on 22- 23 June 2022, reiterated its stance to continue to focus to tame inflation even at the cost of growth.  Jerome Powell also said with current steps recession looks inevitable.   SGX Nifty @ 15859 up 158 points from Friday’s closing.

Approach on Technical: Currently we have considered correction from 16793 to 15183 and level mention are retracement @ 38.2% & 61.8% retracement level on Nifty & Banknifty.

Fundamental Insight

Accenture Plc result on 23-Jun-22 was strong with strong order book.  Although stocks are trading around 35% from its recent 52-week high.  Indian IT companies are also trading around 30% – 50% from their respective 52 week high.  

We see strong possibility of technical bounce in next week and it could also get followed in first week on July ahead of next quarterly result season begins.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Jun-22

Crazy move: Indian market move yesterday could be termed as roller coaster.  Index weekly options expiry play at its best.

Wall Street ended volatile session with minor gains.  Defensive & tech stocks were up, Nasdaq was up 1.62%.

US Fed annual “stress test” showed the banks have enough capital to whether severe economic downturn and paves way for buyback & dividend.

Auto stocks led from the front as all top 5 Nifty gainers were auto stocks & Reliance was down as crude oil cool-off.

VIX @ 20.88: below 22 – indicate comfortable zone, no major fall seen in near term.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 – can go long with review or stop-loss if Index goes below this level.

Market View: Recent low on Indices made on 16 – 17 June, most of the stocks are trading near their respective recent lows.  Indices & stocks are around 2 – 4% from recent lows.  Time to do some bottom fishing, rally before final F&O expiry & before next quarter result season.  Review or plan exit if Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 are broken.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Jun-22

Indian market manages to close by around 1.5% on major indices and around 3.5% on Mid-Cap & Small-Cap indices on back of strong short-covering.  Last hour sell-off on a otherwise strong day of trading.

Wall Street was up 2.15% to 2.51% on major indices on back of short-covering.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies before Senate & Finance committee today at 7 PM IST.

VIX @ 21.14: Cooled-off yesterday, VIX remaining under 22 indicates low volatility going ahead.

Approach on Indices: Going into trade with mix signal with global cues indicating risk-off sentiment.  Nifty @ 15779 & Banknifty @ 32787 remains our target and resistance zone.

Market View: F&O data indicates further short-covering to continue where as global cues indicate risk-off & weak global cues.  Crude oil down over as recession fear.

Stock in focus: Oil refiners & Metal stocks could resume down move.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 21-Jun-22

Blood bath in broader market as major indices manage to close in flat in a volatile session.

Australian central bank, RBA hints at more hike in a meeting minute released today as inflation seen at 7% compared to previous forecast of 6%.

VIX @ 22.41: was high at 23.64 in opening but cooled-off during second half.  Cool-off below 22 could trigger another short-covering on Indices.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 – can go long till this level are hold on to, and review long position once this level is broken.

Market View: Most of bad news in short-term have been factored although medium to long term overhang remains, currently on technical & F&O data indicate – Market in oversold zone.

Stocks in focus: IT & Cement stocks – due for bounce.

SGX Nifty @ 15411 up 49 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 20-Jun-22

On weekly basis, major indices were down by around 5% to 5.5% and Small-Cap 100 down by 7.91%.  Friday, market ended volatile session with minor cuts.

Oil prices corrected by more than $10 compared to Friday evening to current rate, mainly on fear of recession in US, over production in Russia and pressure on demand.

Any technical bounce: Banknifty could test 33787 with 32366 is short term support.  On lower side Banknifty could test 30946 & 30069.

VIX @ 22.76: Continue to trade above comfort level of 22, and move up 25 could turn highly volatile.  Indices are below March & May 2022 low and VIX above 25 is a deadly combination.

For Bulls – important support level Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 remains key support and will need to review long position.  For bears – downward momentum may accelerate once below this important support level.  We would prefer to add short / hedge existing long once Indices below this level.

SGX Nifty @ 15264 down 51.50 points at 7:50 AM.  

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