Month: November 2022

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-Nov-22

Wall Street ended flat to negative, NASDAQ closed 0.59% lower as APPLE drag it lower.  Global market waiting for further cues due today.

US Economic data & Event today

1) ADP non-farm payroll employment – Estimate @ 196k
2) JOLTS Job openings – estimate @ 10.24 million
3) Pending Home sales data – estimate @ -5.8%
4) US Fed chair Jerome Powell speech.

From today onwards, market will be active as US economic data and back home, auto sales number, GST Collection figures and Gujarat election.  Action begins from today.

F&O Data: FII net long in index future 72.85%.  No of contracts is at 90918 long in index futures 

Approach on Indices: seeing some supply at higher level, no sign of weakness but there are some signs of fatigue, even though a small correction would be healthy from current level. 

SGX Nifty 18759.50 up 1 point at 8:30 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
30-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

26-Nov-22 – Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Market went into trade this week, with facing supply at higher level, but market turned positive post US Fed meeting minutes.  We had clear view to go long and, on any correction, we had mentioned to add fresh long around key support level.  

Approach on Technical: Technical breakout will open further upside 6% – 9%.  Over a period of 3 to 5 weeks.  Outlook for December end looks interesting.

This week outlook remains sideways with little pull-back or correction would be healthy.  Nifty @ 18436 & 18175 & Banknifty around 42300 – 42400 could provide good entry opportunity for long.  Technical setup is bullish and our strategy to trade long.

Market View & Strategy

Global cues will continue to drive the narrative which is currently building around the slowdown in rate hike by US Fed.  Major economic data from US starts from 2-Dec-22 and any change in global narrative could lead to further correction.  Easy monitory policy means mid-cap & Small-cap could do well and we are bullish on Mid-cap & Small-cap with short term view till budget.  

We would focus on IT & Metal as a sector which could do well during easy monitory policy.   We see 1st half of December to very eventful and interesting which could set the stage for some consolidation this week.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
26-Nov-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – US Fed balance & US economic data

Global Market- US Balance sheet & Economic data indicates weakness

This week we will focus on US Fed meeting minutes, US Jobless claim and China’s attempt to boost economy which has been hit by zero COVID policy and stringent lockdown.  Recent rally in global market is purely supported by narrative that US Fed will slowdown rate hike and likely to pause see impact of steepest rate hike in recent US history.

US Fed – Balance sheet @ $ 8.62 trillion Vs peak of $ 8.96 trillion.

• US Fed balance sheet was at $ 8.96 trillion in March 2022 which is currently at $ 8.62 trillion.   
• Currently US Fed QT is at $95 billion per month and is expected to continue till Mid 2023.

China Central Bank Boosts Stimulus To Aid Covid-Hit Economy

The People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 basis points, it said in a statement Friday. The adjustment takes effect on Dec. 5 and will inject 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) of liquidity into the economy.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Current global narrative of soft monitory policy due to economic slowdown in US or economic crisis in Europe or economic impact in China due to zero COVID policy, all this indicate the return of easy monitory policy globally.  So, we repeat our view and statement for 3rd week straight that we see December 2022 as repeat of August 2007.

Recent development seen this week have turned our view bullish and high probability of repeat of August 2007 – January 2008 phase which witness sharp rally in global assets class with risk-on sentiment.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global market -US Fed balance sheet & US economic data.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 25-Nov-22

New series start with interesting F&O setup.  FII net long @ 76.63% in Index futures.  Rollover is at 68% light as comparison.

Indices at fresh recent high, one of the best trade setups going into last month of year 2022.  

Banknifty crossed 43000 level convincingly and Nifty less than 125 points away from all-time high.  BSE Sensex crossed all-time high.

VIX @ 13.48: below 14, surprisingly low.

Approach on Indices: After strong rally yesterday, some consolidation would be healthy.  Indices on chart indicate classic textbook break out and opens up further upside by 6% to 9% in near term.

SGX Nifty @ 18624.50 down 43.50 points.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
25-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Nov-22

Wall Street closed at fresh recent high after US FOMC meeting minutes shows slower rate hike in Dec-22 & Jan-23 Fed meetings.  NASDAQ was up 0.99%, tech stocks are directly co-related.

Dollar Index below 106 level & US 10-year bond yield below 3.70% is factoring 50-bps rate in December Fed meeting.  

Crude oil prices lower – WTI Crude oil below $80 & Brent Crude around $85.  

VIX @ 14.04: expect to be in range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate around 70 – 80 points gap-up opening, Banknifty could hit fresh record high today.  No sign of weakness but F&O expiry could limit upside for today.

Market View: after today’s F&O expiry for November series, we expect focus to sharply move towards next US Fed meeting, RBI MPC meeting in 1st week of December and economic data.

SGX Nifty @ 18338.50 up 84.50 points at 8:00 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
24-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Nov-22

Crude oil on roller coaster ride yesterday, after article in WSJ claiming than OPEC + nations are planning to increase production by 5 million bpd.  Saudi Arabia decline later on and crude oil recovered from lows.

China ‘s lockdown policy continues to remain a concern for market in near term as supply chain disruption and demand slowdown.

VIX @ 14.80: Continue to remain in range 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: Indices are showing initial sign of supply accelerating.  We expect any consolidation / correction to be buying opportunity.  We would avoid going short and add long around support level.  Nifty @ 17875 & Banknifty @ 41530 key support 

Market View: Indices continue to trade in narrow range, indicating indecisive trend.  Broader market outperformed yesterday after many days of underperformance, some beaten down stocks do provide fresh entry opportunity.  

SGX Nifty @ 18230 up 25 points at 8:15 AM.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
22-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Uncategorized

Daily Report 21-Nov-22

Government cuts export duty on steel & Iron ore and hikes import duty on raw material.  NMDC stands out to major winner of policy change.

Bank credit growth for the fortnight ended on 4-Nov-22 comes at 17%, deposit growth @ 8.2%.  RBI pegs Q2 GDP growth at 6.1% to 6.3% and FY23 growth forecast maintain at 7%.

VIX @ 14.39: seen at lowest level since March 2020.  Before March 2020, VIX range use to be around 12 – 16.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate weak opening, late recovery on Friday could be offset.  Its time for some correction / consolidation.

SGX Nifty @ 18261.50 down 86 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
21-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 18-Nov-22

Wall Street ended with minor cuts as US Fed member Bullard says: rates need to be in range of 5% – 7%, believes Fed policy not at sufficient restrictive level.

Crude oil down more than 3% overnight as WTI Crude oil near $82 & Brent Crude $90.

F&O expiry for November series next week will provide cues for Indian market in near term.  No major economic data due today.

VIX @ 14.88: expect to be in range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: We continue to maintain that fresh long opportunity to be reviewed on Nifty @ 18175 & Banknifty @ 41530.  Indices seeing some supply pressure at higher level.

SGX Nifty @ 18421.50 up 46.50 points at 8:30 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
18-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 17-Nov-22

Wall Street ended with minor cuts; NASDAQ was down 1.54% on profit booking.  US retail TARGET was down after disappointing result and weak guidance, expect weak holiday demand.

US economic data: Retail sales were strong.  US 10-year yield @ 3.72%.  Fed rate monitor tool shows 90.2% probability of 50-bps rate hike in next US Fed meeting.

Crude oil continues remain soft WTI Crude near $85 & Brent Crude @ $92. Government makes minor changes in windfall tax on oil products

VIX @ 15.10: VIX likely to increase and heading towards 17.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate 70 – 80 points down opening.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.40 indicate highly overbought zone.  Today – weekly option expiry, we expect Nifty to test 18300 & Banknifty around 42000 level.

Market View: Since last 2 days, we have remained cautious and avoided fresh long and we continue to follow, today SGX Nifty indicate weak opening, we expect profit booking on indices ahead of final F&O expiry next week.

SGX Nifty @ 18405 down 75 points at 8:05 AM.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
17-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 16-Nov-22

Government plans changes in capital gain tax in Budget 2023 – Report.

Geo-political tension rises again: Report claim that Russian missile hits Poland and kills 2 persons.  US President Biden call for emergency meeting of G7 and NATO nations.

Global cues: CPI & PPI data came below street estimate giving hope of inflation coming down, US 10-year bond yield @ 3.784%.

VIX @ 14.64: to be in range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: We would prefer to fresh entry on Nifty @ 18175 & Banknifty @ 41530.  Indices opening flat to positive will look to reduce position and increase cash level.

Market View: Recent geo-political situation if escalates would create some nervousness, but no major and immediate concern seen.  Any correction due to geo-political tension to the tune of 3% or more could be used for fresh entry.

SGX Nifty @ 18457 down 37.50 points at 7:55 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
16-Nov-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document