Month: August 2022

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-Aug-22

Indian market reacted to US Fed chair Jerome Powell speech on Friday, as expected IT & Metal were leading the downfall.

Wall Street after over 3% cut on Friday, had another cut of 0.57% to 1.02% on Monday.  Every US Economic data will be important event to watch out for.

1) US consumer confidence
2) JOLTS Jobs opening

Indian market did not witness follow through selling after gap-down opening.  FII sell figures @ 561 crores is far less than seen earlier in May & June 2022.

VIX @ 19.82: manage to close below 20, within comfort level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicates 50 points up opening, we expect lower level to get tested and consolidate before any fresh up move.  

SGX Nifty @ 17431 up 50.50 points at 7:55 AM.


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
30-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 29-Aug-22

Jackson Hole Symposium: US Fed chair speech have changed the market narrative.

1) Market factoring in 75-bps hike – probability @ 61%
2) US Fed could keep interest rate high for longer period of time, market was expecting decline in Feb 2023
3) By 2022 end: Interest rate could be near to 4% Vs earlier expectation of 3.5%.

RBI Weekly bulletin Credit growth as on 12-Aug-22 was robust at 15.3% Y-Y.  Non-food credit growth best seen post COVID-19.

RELIANCE AGM today: Future Road-map towards 5G, listing of JIO & RETAIL in focus along with succession play.

Approach on Indices: We will be watching out for Nifty @ 17023 & Banknifty @ 37589 to find some support.  Indices which was due for correction is finding strong reason to adjust to recent rally.

SGX Nifty @ 17295.50 down 363.50 points at 7:50 AM


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
29-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

27-Aug-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review 

Nifty took support at 17345 on Tuesday in opening session and manage to trade in range of 17384 to 17775.  Banknifty traded in range of 38000 to 39500 while holding on to 38418 level on closing basis.

Approach on Technical: Friday’s closing, technical indicate mix picture, but global cues are weak and indicative opening on Monday will be around Nifty @ 17384 & Banknifty around 38418.

Indices could retrace 61.8% of the recent rally, going into trade with weak global cues.  Nifty below 17384 could test 17023 & Banknifty below 38418 could test 37589 level.  

Market View & Strategy

Indian market has been resilient in month of May & June 2022 where there was global turmoil.  After yesterday’s speech again there will be change in narrative to bearish & skeptical from “Inflation & Interest rate seen peaking” which triggered rally from 17-Jul-22 to 18-Aug-22.  

We would focus on domestic companies more than companies with global exposure such as IT & Metal.  Nifty @ 17000 & Banknifty @ 37500 will provide opportunity to do fresh allocation.
Click on the attachment to read the full report:
27-Aug-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – Jackson Hole Symposium

Today we will discuss, US Fed chair Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole Symposium and cues leading to US FOMC meeting outcome on 21-Sep-22.  Here are some of the key points from his speech on 26-Aug-22.

• Powell: Will require restrictive policy for some time.
• Powell: September rate action will dependent on upcoming economic data.
• Powell: Lower July inflation data is welcome, but not enough to change view.
• Powell: Need some more evidence before of inflation cooling off.
• Powell: overall inflation target remains at 2% for long term sustainable growth.
• Powell: Restoring price stability will take some time.
• Powell: History cautious against prematurely loosening policy.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: View & Opinion

Before we share out view, we would like to highlight the rally which started from 17-Jul-22 to 18-Aug-22 was based on narrative that US Fed will manage soft landing and corporate earning will not be hurt as much earlier anticipated in May & June 2022.

Today’s speech highlight was reference to history, which clearly says that early reversal of policy path could prove to be more disastrous.  Like US Fed waited too much to reverse easy monitory policy unless US Fed see’s clear sign of inflation cooling down, US Fed will continue its tight monitory policy.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global market – Jackson Hole Symposium.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 26-Aug-22

Indian market witness sharp fall in 2nd half, move seen mainly due to F&O expiry.  Nifty was down more than 200 points in 2nd half.

Crude Oil cooled-off: as US-Iran nuclear deal likely to go through as Biden administration to OK deal in USA ‘s interest.

US Economic data: Prelim GDP data came at -0.6% Vs expectation of -0.7%.  GDP data better than Advance GDP data.  All eyes set on US Fed chair Jerome Powell speech on some cues on next move on interest rate: 50-bps or 75-bps hike

VIX @ 19.57: yesterday’s attempted move above 20, need to turn cautious if sustains above 20.

Approach on Indices: Yesterday’s move could be termed as one-off and today’s indicative opening is strong & momentum is expected to continue.

Market View: All eyes are set on US Fed chair Jerome Powell ‘s speech.  We would like to focus on domestic growth story as we are in festive season and continue to focus on select Mid-cap & Small-Cap stocks.

SGX Nifty @ 17685 up 97 points at 8:00 AM


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
26-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report

Jackson Hole Symposium: Key 3-day event in US starts from today, Indian market will react to it tomorrow.  Market going into event with some positive expectation.

Final F&O expiry day for August 2022 series: market going into trade with positive set-up with a view beyond expiry and key US event.

VIX @ 18.43: Remains within comfortable level.

Approach on indices: Momentum coming back on F&O expiry day, its time to go LONG on indices and review if Nifty goes below 17607 & Banknifty below 38418.

Market View: Early sign of Risk-On momentum and if Jackson hole Symposium event turn out to be market positive, we may say further upside of 3% – 5% on Indices in next 5 – 10 trading session.

Key reason for Optimism: We expect US Fed chair Jerome Powell to reiterate his stance of soft landing indicating 50 bps hike in next US FOMC meeting on 20 – 21 September 2022.

SGX Nifty @ 17704.50 up 89 points at 8:15 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
25-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Aug-22

Global market will focus on Jackson Hole Symposium: any comment on quantum of rate hike is closely watched.

F&O expiry for August series tomorrow, Global risk-off momentum was halted after US Service PMI data.  Indian market in these 2 days could build on strong upward momentum seen in 2nd half yesterday.

VIX @ 19.05: volatile but below 20, will turn cautious above 20.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate weak opening, momentum seen in 2nd half yesterday is not seen in opening cues.  We, however remain optimistic till Nifty @ 17384 & Banknifty @ 38418 is hold.  

Market View: Global cues will continue to drive the sentiment, but today & tomorrow final F&O expiry for August series will play its role.  

Going into today’s trade with mix cues, we would wait for some clarity before taking fresh cues from market.

SGX Nifty @ 17540 down 68 points at 8:05 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
24-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-Aug-22

INFY reduces average variable pay to 70% for the June quarter as margin squeeze continues, follows WIPRO & TCS.

Natural gas prices in US tops $9.87, Gas price in Europe raised by 13% to EURO 276.75.

Nifty PCR @ 0.79 & Banknifty PCR @ 0.64, in oversold zone.  Another 100 points cut seen going into trade Tuesday morning.

Approach on Indices: Indian market following global cues, Nifty PCR @ 0.79 & Banknifty PCR @ 0.64 and gap between RSI & its average – all indicate technical bounce possible.  Market reaction after gap-down opening will be important, whether Nifty takes support around 17384 level, if yes may see bounce in 2nd half today.

SGX Nifty @ 17413.50 down 76.50 points at 7:55 AM.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
23-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Aug-22

RBI MPC Meeting minutes released on Friday after market hours, sounds hawkish and we expect interest rate hike to continue.

FTSE rebalancing: 
Positive: ASHOKLEY, BHARTIARTLPP, HAL, GUJFLURO & LINDEINDIA.  
Negative: AUROPHARMA, HPCL, LUPIN, NMDC & STARHEALTH.

KOTAKBANK could react negatively on not inclusion in FTSE rebalancing.

Approach on Indices: Due to final F&O expiry, Indices may attempt a bounce back, Nifty @ 17604 & Banknifty @ 38930 levels to watch out for.

Market View: Final F&O expiry will play its role this week, SGX Nifty indicates weak opening, but gap-down opening around 70 – 80 points can be considered as positive and may attempt a bounce back after 1st hour if follow through selling not seen.

SGX Nifty @ 17676 down 68 points at 7:55 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
22-Aug-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – Dollar Index @ 108

Dollar Index – Composition

The U.S. Dollar Index contains six component currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

How is DXY weighted?

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s value relative to following select currencies: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight. Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight.

Dollar Index – Indicator of Risk-On / Risk-Off

Now let us discus the movement of Dollar Index in last 25 to 35 days.  Dollar Index made high of 109.14 on 14-Jul-22, a day after US inflation for June 2022 which came at 9.1% fearing of US Fed could increase rate by 100 bps in 27-Jul-22 FOMC meeting.  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: View & Opinion

We believe market is due for correction in month of September 2022, it will important to see what is the reason for correction “Profit booking” or “Recession fear is back” change in narrative.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global market – Dollar Index @ 108.pdf
View Document