Month: December 2022

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Daily Reports

Daily report 30-Dec-22

Wall Street cheered weak weekly jobs data; NASDAQ was up 2.59% as US 10-year bond yield remains steady around 3.85%.  S&P500 & NASDAQ recorded best gains since 30-Nov-22, TESLA was up 8.1% at close.

India’s Current Account Deficit Widens To Record 4.4% Of GDP In Q2 FY23

Last trading day of calendar year 2022 and first trading of fresh F&O series – going into trade with positive cues.

VIX @ 14.85: within comfort range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: Indices last Thursday / Friday ‘s low on Nifty 17775 & Banknifty @ 41597 remains key support level, indices remain in uptrend till these levels hold.

Market View: Today’s market will be in holiday mood as today is the last trading day for year 2022 and first trading after F&O expiry for December series.

SGX Nifty @ 18337 up 57 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 29-Dec-22

Wall Street down as tech stocks continue to drag market lower, APPLE was down more than 3% as supply disruption feared, late selling witness in market is on lower volume due to holiday mood.

Government of India: Next 40 days are critical.  Health ministry likely to make RT-PCR test mandatory for passengers coming form China and 5 other countries.

Today last 30 min trade will be impacted by change in index rebalancing in Nifty 50, Banknifty & CPSE Index.

VIX @ 15.40: within comfortable range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: Nifty range seen between 17947 – 18154 and Banknifty range seen between 42573 – 43176.  SGX Nifty indicate gap-down opening of 60 – 80 points.  Today last 30-minute – expect volatility on account of change in weight change.  Today also happens to be final F&O for December series.

SGX Nifty @ 18056 down 81 points at 8:45 AM

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Daily Report 28-Dec-22

Wall Street failed to cheer after long-weekend as tech stocks closed lower and Nasdaq near its 52-week low.  

TESLA was down 11.4%, NVIDIA down 7.1%, MARWELL Technology and other semi-conductor stocks led the fall in NASDAQ. 

Russia will ban sales on countries which will follow price cap put buy US & European nations on 5-Dec-22.

VIX @ 15.29: in range of 14 – 16.

Approach on Indices: Technical indicate resistance on Nifty @ 18154 & Banknifty @ 43176.  Today’s indicative opening is down by 60 – 80 points, we expect market to turn positive as we see limited downside in opening session, will be watchful in 2nd half.

Market View: Global cues continue to remain negative, domestic cues, technical & F&O data indicate further upside, going into trade today with mix cues, we would prefer to wait for 1st hour of trade for indices to guide further move.

SGX Nifty @ 18070.50 down 77.50 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Report 27-Dec-22

Wall Street was closed due to extended Christmas holiday.  DOW30 future up 200 points on Tuesday morning, going into last week of trade.

China to cut COVID to lower-threat disease class from 8-Jan-23.  China to cut COVID quarantine, including for inbound arrivals.

Indian market will be testing whether yesterday’s momentum continue this week, global market will witness year-end rally?

VIX @ 15.93: continue to trade at elevated level.

Approach on Indices: We expect volatility to continue, technical view indicate further upside and Nifty could test 18154 & 18361 and Banknifty could test 43176 & above this 44151 is not ruled out.  Sharp V sharp recovery possible backed by momentum.

Market View: Recent fall was mainly on fear of COVID which provided much needed correction & consolidation.  With Friday’s closing as review for long position, short term trade on upside is preferred with year-end rally on cards.

Stocks in focus: NMDC, SIEMENS, TRENT & HINDCOPPER.

SGX Nifty @ 18081 up 52 points at 8:20 AM

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Daily Report 26-Dec-22

Wall Street ended Friday with minor gains as Core PCE inflation came in line with expectation at 0.2% fall compared to last month.

China COVID situation is alarming and China ‘s health department announced that it will not be sharing data related to COVID infection and death.

Market going into last week of trade for 2022 with extremely oversold condition as market corrected by 2.5% to 3.5% on major indices this week.

VIX @ 16.16: time to be cautious, any move towards 20 level would be come on back of heavy volatility and painful fall in market.

Approach on Indices: Indices have broken all crucial support level and currently trading in oversold zone in near term.  We see strong possibility of sharp recovery and expect this week to be volatile.

Market View: Immediate market fall is purely on fear of COVID cases, we feel market has over reacted to COVID news or we are missing something that market knows.

SGX Nifty @ 17900 up 36 points at 7:55 AM

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Weekly Reports

24-Dec-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review: We were cautious going into trade this week with Nifty @ 18133 & Banknifty @ 42937 could be tested and below this level, market have seen selling accelerated.

Approach on Technical: Sharp correction this week can be termed as free fall or massive sell-off as gap between RSI & its average increased beyond normal level.  Now this free fall could continue for 1 or 2 days more, we expect sharp reversal from oversold zone.

Indices are trading below its normal logical support level, Nifty below 18133 could test 17667 & 16912.  Banknifty below 42937 has seen sharp fall which could test lower level up to 40819 in case of worst case.  Nifty @ 17667 & Banknifty @ 41245 / 40819 critical support.


Fundamental Insight

PMGKAY: Pandemic-Era Food Scheme Ends, Subsidized Grains For Poor Now Free
China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People A Day
MPC Minutes: Members In A Tug Of War Over An Early Pause
India’s Forex Reserves Decline $571 Million To $563.5 Billion
Surplus Tax Revenue To Keep Expenditure Bill In Check In FY23, Say Economists

Market View & Strategy

We believe, recent fall on Thursday Friday may be over reaction to this news and it would rather provide opportunity to add fresh at current level with view of Budget + 2023-year end view.

We believe, recent sell-off does show panic selling could be overdone but we would also be watchful to market behavior.  Near term movement will all be about these factors as we see there is no major change as per company fundamentals in concern.

1) F&O expiry for December series, 
2) Technical indicate oversold zone, 
3) Expectation of year-end rally as we go in trade for last week of 2022.  

Historically, buying any sharp fall have yielded positive return with a holding period of 6 to 12 months.  Nifty around 16900 & Banknifty around 39700 would provide such entry opportunity if panic selling continues in last week of 2022.

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24-Dec-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Research Report

Global Market – Bank of Japan policy and China COVID emergency

This week we will discuss the change in policy by Bank of Japan and fresh concern in China over rising number of COVID cases and its potential impact of global supply chain and economic growth.  Global economy which was returning to some path of certainty hit by another round of uncertainty.

Key points from Bank of Japan policy outcome

• Global inflation impacting Japanese inflation numbers.
• Change in policy allowing – allowing the yield curve to rise – will encourage capital to remain in Japan.
• Japan has been net exporter of capital since interest rate in Japan in negative, Japan has been source of cheap money globally.
• Japanese YEN has appreciated post policy outcome of Bank of Japan.

China ‘s COVID emergency

The situation in China continue to remain at alarming level as COVID spread continue to increase.  News from China remains uncertain and selective for the world to understand the ground really very well.  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

We have seen term “Carry trade unwinding” where money is taken from BOJ at almost zero interest and invested in secured bond of developed countries, which is earning them risk-free return on their investment with currency risk which will hedge in forex market.

We believe, change in Japan ‘s monitory policy is a serious concern which could play out its impact in next 1 – 4 months as last source of cheap money which is Bank of Japan is now drying.  

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-Dec-22

Wall Street was down more than 2% – 3% on strong Jul – Sep GDP data, US market recovered by closing.  Market tumbled after strong GDP data as fear of rate hike grips in market.

US Core PCE price index will be released today – market will take cues from this data as it provides better cues compared GDP data.

Defense acquisition council approves necessity for 24 capital acquisition proposals worth Rs 84,238 crores, of them Rs 82,127 crores procurement from indigenous sources.

Approach on Indices: Banknifty already below 42937 & now Nifty going below 18133 is turning indices into negative territory.   Nifty @ 18133 & Banknifty @ 42937 are level from which last lag of rally started, Banknifty is below this level and Nifty wipe off 100% of it.  This downward momentum could open further downside.

SGX Nifty @ 18083.50 down 94.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Report 22-Dec-22

Wall Street closed higher as Nike beat expectation and expectation of inflation to be lower going forward.  Wall Street did not see any fear of COVID cases rising in China.

RBI MPC meeting minutes: divided on early pause to rate hike cycle, there is no room for complacency said RBI Governor.  Next RBI MPC meeting outcome on 8-Feb-22, after Budget & next US Fed meeting.

VIX @ 15.56: expected to face resistance around this zone.

Approach on Indices: Nifty holding on to 18133 & Banknifty likely to open around 42937 today will continue to act as support level.  Today SGX Nifty indicate 100 points gap up opening.  Weekly options expiry today – Nifty around 18400 & Banknifty around 43000 – 43200 expected to end today.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.70 & Banknifty PCR @ 0.50 indicates highly oversold zone.   Weekly options expiry – could trigger a short covering rally.  FII net long exposure now stands at 47.62%.

Market View: Yesterday’s fall was due to fear of rise in COVID cases in China could spread to India, we believe this fear is overplayed by market and we expect sharp recovery.  

SGX Nifty @ 18353.50 up 103.50 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Report 21-Dec-22

Bank of Japan has revised its bond yield upper range from 0.25% to 0.50% as inflation in Japan is around 2%.  Market participants believe it as pivot moment as by US Fed back in November 2021.

Wal Street ended flat to positive, US Market move in narrow range shows holiday mood.  Wall Street recovered as energy stocks gained.

US 10-year bond yield @ 3.71% & Gold @ $1826 – due to change in policy by Bank of Japan.  Japan has been exporter of capital and now when BOJ changes its stance – this is seen as major policy shift.

FII F&O data: yesterday FII net sold 30520 contracts in Index futures, now long / short position stands at 49.40%: 50.60%.  

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 18133 & Banknifty @ 42937 remains important support level & upward momentum on Nifty above 18599 & Banknifty above 43584 can been seen.

SGX Nifty @ 18503.50 up 77.50 points at 8:30 AM. 

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