Month: September 2022

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-Sep-22

India’s current account deficit widens to 2.3% of GDP, highest since 2013, but was lower than market estimate.

Government to borrow 5.92 lakh crores in H2 FY23, which is 10000 crores less than earlier estimate, positive for money market.

RBI MPC to announce its policy decision at 10:00 AM today.

VIX @ 21.30: fresh up move above 22 – 23 level, needs alarming cautious approach.

Approach on Indices: RBI MPC policy will provide fresh cues; we will prefer to wait for RBI Policy outcome to take fresh view.  We believe short-covering is overdue & would prefer to play long.

SGX Nifty @ 16779 down 30 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 29-Sep-22

Bank Of England steps in to curb volatility, BOE will buy long dated securities to curb volatility in bond yield.

Wall Street ended around 2% higher on BOE steps in.  US 10-year bond yield was down more than 25-bps from 4% to currently trading at 3.75%.

EU approves EURO 700 billion support to Italian company hit by war in Ukraine.  

VIX @ 22.10: need cautious approach till VIX trading above 20.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening on back of positive global cues.  Initial gap-up opening may get sold into; we expect another round of short covering rally in 2nd half.

SGX Nifty @ 17040 up 151 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 28-Sep-22

Nord Stream pipeline saw leakage due to damage; 3 leakage was found impacting supply to Germany.  Damage is unprecedented will take time to restore.

Dollar Index above 114.50 & US 10-year bond yield @ 4%.

VIX @ 21.57: move above 22 likely today, warrants cautious.

Nifty PCR @ 0.70 & Banknifty PCR @ 0.54 indicate highly oversold zone.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap-down opening of 160 – 180 points.  Clear risk-off sentiment although indices are in oversold zone ahead of final F&O expiry tomorrow.

Market View: Global cues are showing unprecedented weakness as recession fear mounts, we continue to focus on VIX which is showing worrisome market conditions. 

SGX Nifty @ 16861 down 177 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 27-Sep-22

GBP/USD @ 1.0764 & UK 10-year bond yield @ 4.18%.  Market expects Bank Of England to increase rate sharply to protect GBP slide.

FII Sold 5101 crores on 26-Sep-22.  DII bought 3532.18 crores.  Nifty PCR @ 0.76 Vs 0.76 previous.

VIX @ 21.89: closed way above 20, expect daily volatility of more than 300 points on Nifty & 700 – 800 points on Banknifty.

Approach on Indices: currently in oversold zone, indicates bounce from lower level, we continue to focus on VIX in near term to take market cues in short term ahead of F&O expiry on Thursday.

Market View: SGX Nifty indicate 60 points positive opening, Nifty @ 16800 – 17100 & Banknifty @ 38000 – 38800 could considered as Accumulation zone with a view on RBI MPC policy on 30-Sep-22 & Corporate earnings season from 2nd week of next month.

SGX Nifty @ 17085 up 64 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 26-Sep-22

RBI fortnightly data: Credit growth @ 16.2% and deposit growth @ 9.5%.  Credit growth at fresh 9 year high.  

India’s 10-year G-Sec @ 7.43% back to June end levels around 7.50% RBI MPC meeting on 30-Sep-22.

VIX @ 20.59: Time to turn cautious till VIX stays above 20.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap down opening of 140 points, Indices are oversold in near term, we expect some bounce going into final F&O expiry for September series.

Market View: Global market are fearing recession, moving to safe assets classes.  US 2-year bond yield @ 4.24% & recent fall on UK Bond impact outflow from equity market globally.

SGX Nifty @ 17190 down 142 points at 8:05 AM

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Weekly Reports

24-Sep-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week review: 

We expected correction on Indices are Nifty made high at 18096 & Banknifty corrected after making new 52-week high of 41840.

We would be working for 3 probabilities to read the next direction.

1) VIX stays above 20 & see some bounce on Nifty @ 17740 & Banknifty @ 40351: We will consider it as opportunity to reduce exposure & find short opportunity.

2) VIX goes below 20 level & Nifty @ 17166 & Banknifty @ 39432 holds: if market stops further correction and holds on to crucial level, consolidation in range on Indices within 2% percent will mean that market will be waiting for further cues & development, which will be corporate earnings.

3) VIX stays above 20 & correction continues: Current momentum is down and market is getting hammered into with fresh weakness and we would prefer to hedge & reduce exposure.

Going into F&O expiry for September series, technical indicate market in oversold zone and due for a bounce back from lower level.  Market have corrected around 3% to 5% after US Fed decision outcome.  Decoupling theory of Indian market will be tested in next week ahead of RBI MPC policy on 30-Sep-22.

We would avoid chasing momentum and prefer to sticks to stocks where we are comfortable holding on for long period of time.

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24-Sep-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Research Report

Global Market – US Fed – Hawkish & Precises

US FED – Hawkish & Precises

Here we bifurcated policy action and statement from press conference of US Fed chair Jerome Powell after US Fed announce policy decision to understands its impact on global assets classes after US fed decision.

Global risk-off across the assets classes have been triggered after US Fed policy.  US Fed policy have triggered panic among global central banker as they rush to announce interest rate hike to protect their currency.  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

We believe, market is now adjusting to hawkish & precise policy by US Fed as they are now ready to sacrifice growth and willing to see some pain to bring inflation to 2% over a longer period of time.  

Time to be prepared for crash landing, earnings season starting from 2nd week of October 2022 will be important event to watch out for before next US Fed meeting on 2-Nov-22. 

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Global market – US FED – Hawiksh & Precises.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-Sep-22

INR dips below 80 level mark against US Dollar.  INR closed at 80.9175 as USD gets strong against most currency on back of US Fed.

Accenture Result: will fail to cheer IT stocks. Guided for 8% to 11% full year guidance.  Operating margin at 15.3% to 15.5%.

FMCG & AUTO stocks performed well as IT & Banks dragged the market.  Banking stocks corrected as higher interest rate globally.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 17510 & Banknifty @ 40354 could be tested again today.  Going into final F&O expiry for September series, we expect indices to take support on Nifty @ 17510 & Banknifty @ 40354 to support next round of rally.

Market View: Going into trade today, SGX Nifty indicate weak opening and lower level will be tested.  US Fed meeting outcome have provided much needed correction and we would prefer it to use it for going long with fresh allocation.  

SGX Nifty @ 17568 down 72 points at 7:45 AM.

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23-Sep-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Sep-22

US Fed hikes rate by 75-bps, more hawkish than expected.  US Fed ‘s focus remain on long term inflation target @ 2%, preparing market for some pain as soft landing could not be possible.

US Fed revised growth forecast downward, median rate by 2023 @ 4.6% and for 2024 @ 3.9%.  Any rate cut in 2023 ruled out.

VIX @ 19.32: Will be watching closely today, move above 20 need to turn cautious going into final F&O expiry for September series.

Approach on Indices: Market will be reacting to US Fed decision and indicate weak opening.  Nifty @ 17518 & Banknifty @ 40354 will be level to review to add fresh long.

SGX Nifty @ 15750 down 146 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily report 21-Sep-22

Market View: Banknifty is trading near recent high along with many banking stocks.  Keep 15% -25% in liquid and to be deployed in case of there is any major fall.  

US Fed event could potentially trigger move of 2% – 3% on either side in next 1 – 2 trading day, by Friday.

VIX @ 18.80: trading below 20, within comfortable level.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 17518 & Banknifty @ 40354 remains key support, till it remains above this level, indices are in uptrend.  US Fed event will impact indices today & tomorrow.

SGX Nifty @ 17727 down 68 points at 7:50 AM

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21-Sep-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
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