Month: September 2022

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 20-Sep-22

Globally market has factored in 75-bps rate hike by US Fed and expected to end 2022 around 4.25%, any hawkish commentary than this could be disappointing.

VIX @ 19.94: closed just short of 20, traded most the day above 20.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 17518 & Banknifty @ 40354 remains key & strong support ahead of event.  If US Fed event turns out to be market positive, Indices are set for healthy rally post US Fed meeting.

Market View: Mid-cap & Small-cap will continue to provide opportunity on going long, US Fed meeting outcome remains key overhang in near term.  

SGX Nifty @ 17780 up 156 points at 8:05 AM 

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 19-Sep-22

Advance tax collection up 17% year on year at 2.95 lakh crores.  Gross tax collection up 30% at 8.36 lakh cores Vs 6.42 lakh crores.

VIX @ 19.82: need to turn cautious if close above 20

Approach on Indices: We expect volatility to continue ahead of US Fed event on 21-Sep-22, Nifty closed near support level of 17518 & Banknifty could test 40354, remain cautious with negative bias.

Market View: Mid-cap & Small-cap witness profit booking on Friday, Mid-cap & Small-cap index down around 2.50% to 3.0%, we expect some more profit booking in next 2 – 3 days before uptrend resumes.

Stocks in focus: Defense stocks & Banking for accumulating on correction.

SGX Nifty @ 17573.50 up 10.50 points at 7:55 AM

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Weekly Reports

17-Sep-22 – Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Nifty almost tested 18134 level, weekly high was just below 18100 and Banknifty convincingly crossed 41406 level on intraday basis.

De-coupling debate / discussion of Indian market is getting momentum as domestic economy stocks outperformed during the week, but witness some correction on Friday. 

Approach on Technical: This week, technical setup is weak and considering VIX @ 19.82 and if VIX goes above 20 – 22, we expect high volatility due to US Fed event outcome on 21-Sep-22. 

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Opinion & View

Banknifty continue to outperform as domestic economy remains resilient.  Defense & Cement along with Banking & AUTO sector continue to do well on strong demand and expectation of healthy demand ahead of festive season.

Market View & Strategy

This week, focus would remain on US FED meeting outcome on 21-Sep-22, it could be termed as binary event and we have seen some surprise is thrown by market ahead of event and opposite reaction to policy outcome.

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Research Report

Global Market – US FOMC meeting 20 – 21 Sep

Global Market – US FED meeting outcome on 21-Sep-22

Before US CPI & Core CPI inflation data released on 13-Sep-22, there was probability playing on 50-bps & 75-bps and now Fed rate monitor tool is showing probability between by 75-bps & 100-bps.

Globally, financial market has not fully factored in 100-bps rate hike and on 21-Sep-22, if US FED increase rate by 100-bps there is negative reaction across assets classes.

US 2-year bond yield @ 3.90% inverting US 10-year bond yield – Indicating recession?

US 2-year bond yield inversion compared to 5-year & 10-year bond yield also increase the probability of recession in near term.

U.S. mortgage rates have doubled this year & have now climbed past 6% for the first time since November 2008.

Equichain Wealth Advisors – Market view & Opinion

We believe, US FED would increase rate by 75-bps which could provide relief rally in global asset classes.  Any surprise moves to increase rate by 100-bps would send market another round of selling pressure across global asset classes. 

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 16-Sep-22

Wall Street ended continues its loosing streak with 0.56% to 1.43% cut on major US indices as market fear US Fed ‘s hawkish stance for longer period of time.

US economic data released yesterday were mostly strong.  A strong economic data will support more tight monitory policy as market goes into US FOMC event next week.

VIX @ 18.39: below 20 is within comfortable level

Approach on Indices: With a bullish base view, we would look Nifty @ 17736 – 17775 as support level & Banknifty @ 40216 – 40757 to initiate fresh long.  SGX Nifty indicate weak opening and expect some more weakness going into weekend. 

Market View: Mid-cap & Small-cap & Domestic economy stocks – today’s correction could provide fresh entry opportunity.  Profit booking could be the trend for today, so prefer buying on dip rather chasing the momentum.

SGX Nifty @ 17775 down 104 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 15-Sep-22

Indian market had complete flip from the global cues, Nifty ended 66 points or 0.37% down, while Banknifty was up 532.30 points / 1.30% up.  De-coupling narrative played out.

US Economic data due today are: Retail & Core Retail sales, Empire state manufacturing Index & Philly Fed manufacturing index.

VIX @ 18.28: comfortable till VIX is below 20.

Approach on Indices: Nifty @ 18134 & Banknifty @ 41454 could act as resistance level due to weekly expiry.  Momentum remains on upside; we will prefer to book profit on long side and wait.

Market View: Domestic economy stocks remains top picks and wait for some fresh sign to play momentum.  Trend remains same – Avoid IT & Metal & Global economy facing stocks and view remain bullish on domestic consumption story.

We expect quite session as compared to yesterday ‘s volatile session.

SGX Nifty @ 18047 up 57 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 14-Sep-22

US CPI inflation data came @ 8.3% Vs expectation of 8.1%.  Core CPI came @ 6.3% Vs expectation of 6.1%.  

Wall Street – worst day since June 2020.  DOW30 was down 3.94% and Nasdaq down by 5.16%.  Tech stocks lead the fall as tight monitory policy fear rises.

Dollar Index back @ 109.60, back to recent highs, Fed rate monitor tool now indicate 37% probability of 100-bps rate hike on 21-Sep-22.

VIX @ 17.47: Likely to open higher around 20 level mark.  We will be closely watching VIX movement ahead of US Fed meeting.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap-down opening above 300 points.  Nifty @ 17775 & Banknifty @ 40086 could provide good support, we will prefer to wait to go long.

Market View: We would focus on domestic economy, defense stocks, Mid-cap & Small-cap with a stocks specific view with a medium-term view.  Any cut of 7% – 10% could be looked for adding to portfolio over next 1 – 2 days.

SGX Nifty @ 17775 down 317 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 13-Sep-22

Defense stocks rallied as MoD restrict emergency imports and Indian company to deliver the requirement within 1 year.  HAL, BEL, BDL & PARAS were major gainers.

Wall Street rallied ahead of US CPI & Core CPI data due today.  US inflation is expected to cool-off further following July 2022.

India ‘s CPI inflation data came @ 7% Vs expectation of 6.84% and previous CPI @ 6.71%.

India’s IIP data for July 2022 @ 2.4% compared to 12.7% in June.

VIX @ 17.94: trading below 20, within comfortable level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate opening above 18000 psychological level, we expect some profit booking in 1st half.  Banknifty to take inflation data with pinch of salt and expect to remain positive.

Market View: Focus remains on Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks, focused on domestic economy.  US CPI & Core CPI – last major data before US FOMC meeting on 21-Sep-22.

SGX Nifty @ 18048 up 106.50 points at 8:05 AM


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Daily Report 12-Sep-22

Direct tax collection surges by 35% to 6.48 lakh crore, net of refunds stands at 5.29 lakh crores which is 30.17% higher.

RBI Data: Credit growth at 9-year high, at 15.5% growth Y-o-Y.  Deposit growth was 9.5% Y-o-Y.  Credit growth driven by retail.

Defense companies will be in focus as Ministry of Defense says no to emergency import, to rely on domestic defense companies.

VIX @ 17.72: VIX trading in comfortable range of 17 – 20.

Approach on Indices: Indicate flat opening after break out last week, we expect some consolidation before fresh round of up move is seen, clear breakout has open upside potential.

Market View: Today’s global cues are positive, SGX Nifty indicting flat opening is surprising, we would be awaiting any sign of momentum building up in Mid-Cap & Small-Cap going into next corporate earnings season.  

SGX Nifty @ 17850 up 8 points at 8:05 AM

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Weekly Reports

10-Sep-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We expect market to get decisive move and Indices have clearly given break-out on upside.  Nifty closing above 17775 & Banknifty above 39786.  Banknifty manage to cross above psychological level of 40000 and highest weekly closing for Banknifty.  

Approach on Technical: In last 2-week, Nifty was up 1.56% and Banknifty was up 3.66% compared to 26-Aug-22 close with 9-Sep-22.  

Technical are very strong and indicate further upside but consolidation at current level could be healthy.  Major event for market is on 21-Sep-22, US FOMC meeting, Indian market will react to it on 22-Sep-22.  

Market View & Strategy

Our strategy this week would be to book part profit on rise as we see market seeing some volatility increasing but continue to remain in narrow range.  Banking remains our top picks, domestic economy companies such as infrastructure, consumption, telecom & banking will provide entry opportunity on any correction.  IT companies and companies with exposure to US & Europe would remain under pressure.

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10-Sep-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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