Month: July 2022

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 20-Jul-22

Indian market yesterday’s gap-down opening was bought into, closed above critical resistance level, opening up for further upside.

Government on India reduce windfall tax on Crude oil – Positive for Reliance & ONGC and other oil companies.

Wall Street rally on earnings as corporates manages to beat estimate as going into event with very low expectation.  

Approach on Indices: yesterday in last hour, market was showing some strength and did mention around 2:45 PM to go long with revise SL on Nifty @ 16161 & Banknifty @ 35253.  Today avoid buying gap-up, we prefer looking opportunity to go long.

Market View: There is change in narrative, focus on companies where result is pending, any positive surprise could bring major move.  We are watching INFY, ICICIBANK & LT as top picks.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
20-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 19-Jul-22

Indian market was up around 1.5%, IT, Banks except HDFCBANK & Metal performed well.  FMCG, M&M and DRREDDY were losers.

Indices closed at recent high and above critical resistance level.  IT stocks witness sharp bounce on back of positive global cues and positive US Bank’s result.  #BFSI

Nifty: RSI @ 59.20 & RSI average @ 52.88.  Nifty closing was very strong, highest level for this month.  Nifty could find strong support at 15983 & potential target of 16622 once 16330 is crossed.

Banknifty: after yesterday’s strong up move, Banknifty is near its target of 35543, RSI @ 61.49 & RSI average @ 56.82.  Banknifty – support @ 34961 & 34602 & upside target @ 35985.

SGX Nifty @ 16181 down 109 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
19-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 18-Jul-22

Wall Street, earnings cheer the CITI earnings on Friday.  Wall Street up over 2% as expectation of 75 bps hike is at 70% expectation.

HDFCBANK result mostly in line with expectation with minor disappointment.  HDFC & HDFCBANK merger remains key overhang for HDFC twins.

Nifty: now 15970 could act as key support level and break out above 16275 will open further upside to 16330 & 16622.

Banknifty: closed at 34682, now 34602 will act is key support level and first target remains at 35543.  RSI @ 54.63 & RSI average @ 55.65, continue to indicate narrow range.

Market View: On back of global cues, Indices may attempt break out on upside today.  Key earnings season for this week, CITI earnings on Friday triggered rally. US Earnings in focus – Bank of America, Goldman Sachs & IBM.

SGX Nifty @ 16217.50 up 177.50 points at 8:00 AM


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
18-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – Europe Epicenter of next crisis?

Global Market – Europe – Epicenter of next crisis?

This week, we will discuss Europe and which could become next major reason to worry for smooth economic recovery.  EURO at parity with US Dollar, sharp depreciation of EURO could just be an early sign of big storm coming.

Double Whammy: High inflation & High interest rate

We have discussed “Double Whammy” on our 5-Mar-22 article, after Russia-Ukraine crisis and early days of talk of sanctions on Russia.  It triggered energy prices rise to record high and triggered the inflation problem globally.

Why crisis in Europe is next biggest hurdle for global market?

We believe, problem in Europe is at initial stage and things could get worse before things could settle down.  Why we believe so – let us discuss few points mentioned below.

• Inflation problem in Europe is more adverse compared to US.
• ECB & BOE are much behind the curve – in raising interest rate.
• Political crisis in UK & ITALY – more to come?

In next 3 – 6 months, we expect European crisis & Decoupling to be the next important factor to be discussed and driving the market.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global market – Europe – Epicenter of next crisis?.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

16-Jul-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review: Nifty manage to hold on to support level of 15970 level and holding on to critical support level at 15779.  Rally on late Friday manage to cut losses on weekly basis, still major indices ended with just around % cut.

US economic data continue to have its impact on global market.  US CPI & Core CPI came at fresh 4-decade high, raising expectation of 100 bps rate hike in upcoming 27-Jul-22 meeting.  US Fed members, however played down fear of 100 bps rate hike, but 75 bps rate hike is now almost factored in.

Approach on Technical: Nifty break above 16255 & Banknifty break above 35543 could open significant upside.

Keeping in view trend in last 2-week, market retraced / consolidated from a rally in 1st week of July.  This week again we expect Indices to trade on Nifty in range of 15800 – 16255 & Banknifty in range of 34021 – 35543.  

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
16-Jul-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 15-Jul-22

Indian market ended day with negative bias, recovered from low in last hour due to weekly options expiry.  DOW30 future was down around 300 points at time of our market close.

Wall Street recovered after 2 US Fed member plays down 100 bps rate hike.  Probability reduced from above 80% to below 50% after their comment.  US Data to watch today: Retail Sales & Core retail sales.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty opening around 16000 level, we can assume till support level on Nifty @ 15970 & Banknifty @ 34602 are hold on to. 

HDFCBANK result tomorrow, going into result with muted expectation.  Quarterly business updates were positive.

SGX Nifty @ 15996.50 up 63 points at 8:10 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
15-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 14-Jul-22

US CPI came at 9.1% Vs estimate of 8.8%, highest since 1981.  Wall Street cut their opening loss.  Nasdaq was down only by 0.15% as growth stocks is absorbing inflation news.

Fed rate monitor tool indicate more than 75% chances of 100 bps hike by US Fed on 27-Jul-22.  

Mindtree delivered result above street estimate: Revenue up by 7.7% on quarterly basis, margins up 19.17% Vs 18.94% previous and beat market estimate.

Nifty: closed @ 15966, near support level of 15970.  If Nifty manages to hold on to 15970 level on closing basis – It will be positive for short term up trend.  Next support comes at 15803 near 20-DMA @ 15777.

SGX Nifty @ 15941 down 31.50 at 7:55 AM.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
14-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 13-Jul-22

Indian market: last hour selling on weak global cues, major indices ended with around 1% cut, Mid-cap & Small-cap down by around 0.50%.

Crude Oil down by $7 – $8 on recession fear, EUR/USD at parity after 22 years.  Currently trading @ 1.0024.

US Data to watch out for today: CPI & Core CPI data, important data and any surprise could provide swing of 2% or more on Indices.

SGX Nifty @ 16125 up 65 points at 7:40 AM.

Approach on Indices: Indices expected to break from range on Nifty from 15970 – 16255 & Banknifty range at 34602 – 35543. 

Market View: HCLTECH result below expectation.  We believe, another 3% – 4% on IT stocks will be attractive level to add fresh long.  ONGC & RELIANCE – to remain under pressure on Crude oil decline.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
13-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 12-Jul-22

IT stocks as expected were down, reacting to TCS ‘s numbers.  Banking stocks outperformed as Banknifty was up 0.98% while Nifty was flat.

RBI rolls out global trade settlement system in Rupee: long term & strategic steps by RBI.  This step will help bi-lateral trade settlement with countries like Russia & Iran.  Strength for INR.

VIX @ 18.37: continue to trade below 20, comfortable zone.  Indicates low volatility.

Approach on Indices: Banknifty PCR @ 1.34, indicate overbought zone.  Nifty find resistance at 16255 level.  Look for support on Nifty @ 15970 & Banknifty @ 34602.

SGX Nifty @ 16071.50 down 127 points at 8:30 AM

Market View: Broader market along with Banknifty was up around 1%.  Recession fear may provide much needed trigger for correction as important data in next few days.  US Fed expected to raise interest rate by 75 bps in 27-Jul-22 FOMC meeting.

Global risk-off on recession fear grips the market and Dollar Index at fresh 2-decade high on back on unprecedented weakness in EURO.  Global flows moving back to safe heaven & at the same time, gold prices continue to trade near $1740 is surprising.   HCLTECH to declare result today, any positive surprise could be taken well by market we expect limited downside from current level.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
12-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 11-Jul-22

TCS result may react negative with IT stocks, corporate earnings & economic data will continue to dominate this week.  India’s CPI on 12-July.

Telecom News: 5G Auction.  Adani Telecom will be the fourth player to bid in 5G auction along with JIO, BHARTI & VI.  However, Adani Group clarified – no planning to enter consumer mobility.

Telecom News: 5G Auction.  Adani Telecom will be the fourth player to bid in 5G auction along with JIO, BHARTI & VI.  However, Adani Group clarified – no planning to enter consumer mobility.

Approach on Indices: Looking for support on Nifty @ 15970 & Banknifty @ 34228 and breakout if Nifty manages to cross 16255.

Market View: Rally in last week was supported by weak food and energy prices, which was main cause of inflation.  Crude oil & Agriculture prices have recovered from last week’s low.  Consolidation looks likely before fresh set of news and triggers.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
11-Jul-2022-Daily-Report.pdf
View Document