| Indian Market | 4-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 16245.35 | -413.05 | -2.48% |
| Sensex | 54333.81 | -1524.71 | -2.73% |
| Banknifty | 34407.80 | -2022.95 | -5.55% |
| Indian Market | 4-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 27517.10 | -436.20 | -1.56% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 9751.95 | -34.70 | -0.35% |
| India VIX | 27.96 | 1.22 | 4.56% |
| US Market | 4-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 33614.80 | -443.75 | -1.30% |
| S&P 500 | 4328.87 | -55.75 | -1.27% |
| Nasdaq | 13313.44 | -381.18 | -2.78% |
| Currency / Commodity | 4-Mar-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 76.16 |
| EUR/INR | 83.2259 |
| Dollar Index | 98.495 |
| US 10-year bond | 1.737 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 115..06 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 118.03 |
| Gold | $ 1974.30 |
| Bitcoin | $ 39,024 |
| FII / DII Activity | 4-Mar-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | 22,563.08 | |
| DII | 16,742.75 |
Technical Insight
- Nifty is now trading below its 200-DMA after it was broken on 24-Feb-22. Nifty made low of 16203.25 on 24-Feb-22 & made fresh low on 4-Mar-22 at 16133.80.
- Nifty RSI @ 34.83 & RSI average @ 39.51. RSI above 30 – indicate, Nifty is trading near to oversold zone but it is not currently trading in oversold zone.
- Nifty could test 15729 & 15378 in this on-going downtrend, Nifty could face resistance at 16936 & 17047. Major trend reversal only above 17794, high made post Budget on 2-Feb-22.
- Nifty currently in lower-top / lower-bottom formation continues and VIX @ 27.96 closed on Friday, indicate high volatility to continue.
- We see high volatility to continue, Nifty below 16200 may test 15729 & 15378 on lower side, at the same Nifty we expect Nifty to test 16936 & 17047 on higher side.
Fundamental Insight
- Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. This week we will focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed chairman testimony to US Congress on 2 – 3 March 2022. Commodity prices is all over the place and its impact on fundamentals will be seen over a period of next 1 – 3 months.
- The corridors will serve to evacuate civilians and deliver food and medicine to the cities that have been cut off from the world by #Russia.
- Gold near 24-Feb-22 high closes on Friday @ $1974.30. Crude Oil at highest level since 2014 level. WTI Crude Oil @ $115.03 & Brent Crude Oil @ $118.03.
- Base metals close on Friday at fresh high, Copper @ $4.9175. Agriculture products trade at fresh high as supply from Ukraine will get impacted and sanctions on Russia will also impact.
- Russia=Ukraine crisis enters 10th Day. US & NATO have denied to engage militarily in ongoing conflict.
- US Fed chairman Jerome Powell testimony: guided for rate hike of 25 bps in 15 – 16 March FOMC meeting.
- Due to Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed insisted on change in its earlier stance of increasing rate at every meeting held in 2022 starting from March.
- NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone request, says, we are not part of this war – Reuters.
- Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.
Market View & Strategy
- Central bank’s policy was moving towards higher interest rate and balance sheet shrinking and now Russia-Ukraine crisis will make business environment suffer as high commodity will be a big challenge – we call this as “Double whammy”.
- In case there was no escalation on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed was on set to increase rate by 50 bps in upcoming FOCM meeting on 15 – 16 March. But due this crisis US Fed will be watchful and guided for rate hike of 25 bps points.
- Even in case of ceasefire, sanctions on Russia will remain and commodity prices will remain at elevated level unless there some dramatic change in fundamentals or ground level reality, we believe commodity prices will remain at elevated level for some time for now.
- In either or case, interest rate is moving higher but pace of increase may vary base on changing geo-political circumstances. Prolong escalation may impact decision making process for international business may get impacted. Indices around 10 – 12% off from recent high with more correction seen in broader market. Russia-Ukraine crisis may end sooner rather than later as NATO have intended not to joint militarily and convert into NATO vs Russia war.
- We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.