| Indian Market | 28-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 17101.95 | -515.20 | -2.92% |
| Sensex | 57200.23 | -1836.95 | -3.11% |
| Banknifty | 37689.40 | 115.10 | 0.31% |
| Indian Market | 28-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 29804.90 | -758.70 | -2.48% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 10991.90 | -425.05 | -3.72% |
| India VIX | 20.70 | 1.81 | 9.58% |
| US Market | 28-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 34725.47 | 460.10 | 1.34% |
| S&P 500 | 4431.85 | 33.92 | 0.77% |
| Nasdaq | 13770.60 | 1.70 | 0.01% |
| Currency / Commodity | 28-Jan-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 75.1050 |
| EUR/INR | 83.6260 |
| Dollar Index | 97.218 |
| US 10-year bond | 1.7780 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 87.31 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 89 |
| Gold | $ 1790.10 |
| Bitcoin | $ 38,112 |
| FII / DII Activity | 28-Jan-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | 22,158.15 | |
| DII | 10849.40 |
Key Events of this week
- Truncated but eventful week as final F&O expiry for January series and market reacted to hawkish US FOMC meeting outcome on Thursday 27-Jan-22.
- Nifty & BSE Sensex decline by around 3% while Banknifty manage to close with 0.31% gain on weekly basis. Mid-Cap 100 was down by 2.48% & Small-Cap was down by 3.72% compared to last Friday.
- Market reacted to RELIANCE & ICICIBANK result on Monday as it was declared after market closing on Friday. In a busy result season, market focus continues to remain on US FOMC outcome as new-age technology stocks continue to correct. LT Q3 result declared after market hours this Friday will react to its numbers of Monday.
- US FOMC Meeting outcome: guided for rate hike in March 2022. Bond buying program to end by March 2022 as per revised scheduled on 15-Dec-21 meeting. US Fed’s policy is more hawkish than market expected as Fed chairman did not rule out hike in every meeting in 2022. Goldman Sachs expected 5 rate-hike in 2022.
- IT Major along with new technology companies continue its southward journey. Starting from 1-Oct-21, FII sold in equity worth 1.38 lakh crores and that huge but countered by DII and retail investor.
- Crude Oil trading at highest level since October 2014 as Russia – Ukraine tension, in case situation escalates Crude Oil supply could be impacted to Europe and few Asian countries.
Market View: Economic Survey on 31-Jan-22 & Union Budget on 1-Feb-22.
- Market focus will shift to major yearly event – Union Budget to be tabled in parliament on 1-Feb-22 at 11:00 AM.
- Market interestingly poised as globally there as shift in interest rate policy by central banks across the globe. US Fed guided for rate hike in March 2022 where as China reduced rate by 10 BPS after April 2020 to support struggling economy.
- RBI MPC Policy meeting scheduled on 7 – 9 February 2022, outcome on 9-Feb-22. Fiscal math set in Budget will guide the next move by RBI or will play important role in next few policies.
- Last CPI inflation data released on 12-Jan-22 came at highest level since July 2021 at 5.59% for December compared to 4.91% in November. It remained within MPC target range of 4% (+/-2%).
- We continue to believe that year 2022 will not provide easy run as compared to 2021 and lots of volatility can be expected in this year. We expect Budget to provide government’s focus and clarity on steps coming up.
- US FOMC decision to increase rate from March 2022 was in-line with market expectation and global market move seen in last 2 weeks. But the big question remains is that have this impact fully played out?
- We believe, emerging market and currencies have not yet seen fully impact of easy money policy reversal by US Fed.
Our Approach
- We are currently invested in range of 70 – 85% and are currently sitting on liquid around 15 – 30%. In case of major sell-off in Budget it could well provide an opportunity to add long position.
- We will review fresh buy post Budget or post 15-Feb-22 as we believe by 15-Feb all near factor would have played out. Q3 result season would get over, Market would have understood and digested Budget. RBI MPC policy decision would be out.
- As we mentioned in our last week report, we continue to follow that strategy – below mentioned statement from previous week report.
- By this time some clarity emerges, we will prefer to increase cash level higher to 30 – 40% as any knee jerk reaction and may prefer to increase exposure as it may provide good buying opportunity in Telecom & Infrastructure sectors (domestic infra companies – excluding metals), as we see this sector outperforming in 2022.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.