| Indian Market | 25-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 17153.00 | -134.05 | -0.78% |
| Sensex | 57362.20 | -501.73 | 0.87% |
| Banknifty | 35410.10 | -1018.45 | -2.80% |
| Indian Market | 25-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 29274.55 | 296.65 | 1.02% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 10304.45 | 25.40 | 0.25% |
| India VIX | 23.43 | 0.82 | 3.63% |
| US Market | 25-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 34861.24 | 111.88 | 0.32% |
| S&P 500 | 4543.04 | 79.95 | 1.79% |
| Nasdaq | 14169.30 | 275.46 | 1.98% |
| Currency / Commodity | 25-Mar-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 76.1950 |
| EUR/INR | 83.9560 |
| Dollar Index | 98.843 |
| US 10-year bond | 2.488 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 112.58 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 117.34 |
| Gold | $ 1957.75 |
| Bitcoin | $ 44,535 |
| FII / DII Activity | 25-Mar-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | -5344.39 | |
| DII | 2820.72 |
Technical Insight
- Nifty remain range of 17006 – 17442. Nifty took support at 200-DMA on Tuesday and manage to hold to this level, Friday’s session was weak until last hour short covering rally.
- Nifty 200-DMA @ 17036 will continue to act as important support level and 20-DMA comes at 16717. This week high of 17442 would act is important resistance level going into final F&O expiry.
- Looking at Nifty's chart – we would remain cautious with and expect 200-DMA to broken next week and 20-DMA could be tested around 16717 level. Trendline support is expected around 16400 level.
- Banknifty faces resistance at 200-DMA @ 36706, was able to cross intraday but closing was below 200-DMA.
- Banknifty on Friday took support at 20-DMA @ 35170, made low of 35203 on Friday, remain critical going into final F&O expiry week.
- Gap between 20-DMA & 200-DMA comes around 1500 points, chart indicates bearish formation and would prefer to go short once 20-DMA on Banknifty is broken.
Fundamental Insight
- Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. US has put further sanctions on Russian law maker and corporates. Russia continues to remain major energy partner for Europe as supply of Natural gas and Crude Oil continues, latest news is US & EU strike LNG deal as Europe seeks to cut dependence on Russian gas.
- Year end factors keeps downside in market limited, this week ended flat in a volatile trade. Mid-Cap & Small-Cap seen reviewed interest and we see it as year end factor which may continue going into result season.
- Domestic fuel prices increase 4 times this week as international crude oil prices are back above $110.
- FII selling pressure has reduced and we believe Indian market remain hostile to FII selling and continue to trade in volatile range going into final F&O expiry.
- IT stocks bounce back from lows and few names are within 5% of its recent high and companies like TATAELXSI are trading at fresh 52 week high.
- Russia-Ukraine crisis enters 5th week, Russia started its military operations on 24-Feb-22.
- We continue to maintain our view mention last week. Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.
Market View & Strategy
- Market had reacted to Russia-Ukraine crisis and as it enter its 5th week, unless major escalation, downside on this news seems to be limited. Indian market going through year-end factor / NAV management keeping Mid-Cap & Small-Cap stocks in focus.
- Relief rally post US FOMC outcome last week which was followed by volatile session this week, we would prefer to reduce exposure and bet for downward move in final week of F&O expiry and financial year end.
- In either or case, interest rate is moving higher and US Fed post its post meeting press conference is not ruling out 50 bps rate hike in May 2022 US FOMC meeting. US Fed has already guided for announcement on Balance sheet downsizing in May 2022 meeting which would remain a big overhand on market.
- We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.