| Indian Market | 21-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 17617.15 | -638.60 | -3.50% |
| Sensex | 59037.18 | -2185.85 | -3.57% |
| Banknifty | 37574.30 | -796.10 | -2.07% |
| Indian Market | 21-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 30563.60 | -1426.05 | -4.46% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 11416.95 | -492.55 | -4.14% |
| India VIX | 18.89 | 2.33 | 14.07% |
| US Market | 21-Jan-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 34265.37 | -1646.44 | -4.58% |
| S&P 500 | 4397.93 | -264.92 | -5.68% |
| Nasdaq | 13768.90 | -1124.90 | -7.55% |
| Currency / Commodity | 21-Jan-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 74.3975 |
| EUR/INR | 84.274 |
| Dollar Index | 95.62 |
| US 10-year bond | 1.770 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 84.84 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 87.74 |
| Gold | $ 1835.90 |
| Bitcoin | $ 35,771 |
| FII / DII Activity | 21-Jan-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | 12643.61 | |
| DII | 508.04 |
Key Events of this week
- Indian market started the week on positive note as IT stocks witness some value buying post its initial reaction – TCS & INFY hit fresh 52 week high on Monday before seeing some profit booking.
- Global cues this week was negatives as US 10-year bond yield touching 1.90%, highest level since January 2021 before cooling off to 1.770% to end the week. Crude Oil also tested fresh 4 months high of Supply concern as Iraq to Turkey pipeline hit by explosion.
- Nasdaq was down 7.55% / 1124.90 points this week, correction for recent high 16200 level is around 15%. DOW30 was down 4.58% & S&P500 down by 5.68% on weekly basis.
- Indian market witnesses a sharp reversal in trend mainly on global cues Risk-Off trade triggered by fear in rising US 10-year bond yield ahead of crucial US FOMC meeting outcome on 27-Jan-22.
- Globally next generation technology companies / financial technology companies lead the decline as market participants fear the reversal in easy money policy.
- RELIANCE came out with result on Friday after market hours and ICICIBANK declare Q3 result on Saturday – market will react to its earnings on Monday.
- India continues to record more than 3 lakh fresh COVID-19 infection but hospitalization remains low is keeping market calm on this front. Globally COIVD-19 cases continue to rise but economic activity continues with any major disruption.
Market View: Last week on Monthly F&O expiry, US FOMC meeting on 27-Jan-22.
- Global Risk-Off trade continues globally – as market continues to fear more policy measures could be announce by US Fed in its meeting this week to curb rising inflation.
- RELIANCE result could fail to cheer market on Monday – although Net profit came higher than expected on other income, JIO numbers were disappointing.
- ICICIBANK result were higher than estimates and it could help Banknifty to outperform Nifty in near term. ICICIBANK continues its stellar performance almost beating HDFCBANK on all front in last few quarters.
- US Market on Friday witness sell-off in 2nd half and SGX Nifty indicate 200 points gap-down opening on Monday, SGX Nifty closed at 17438 on Friday. Reason for this correction is that market is fearing rate hike by US Fed could begin as early as March 2022.
- Last week we did mention to avoid next gen stocks and maintain cash level around 15 – 20 percent. Next 2 weeks will be critical as US FOMC Meeting outcome on 27-Jan-22 & Union Budget on 1-Feb-22.
- Global Risk-Off this week was surprising for many including us and last week, Nifty was just 300 points from fresh all time high and now Nifty is almost 1000 points away from 18600 level.
- Technically, Indices are in oversold zone in near term. VIX closed at 18.89 & Nifty PCR @ 0.87 indicate oversold zone. As we have 2 major scheduled events in next 7 trading days – VIX remain at elevated remain is absolutely in line with expectation.
Our Approach
- We believe, from here on to next 3 weeks – till end of Q3 result season by 15-Feb-22 – we would approach market in 3 different probable outcomes.
- Before we go through the different scenarios let us understand what is currently build in prices and we see market as current level.
- US Fed chairman Jerome Powell testimony before Senate Banking committee on 11-Jan-22 said: to curb inflation while doing no harm. “We’re really just going to be moving over the course of this year to a policy that is closer to normal, but it’s a long road to normal from where we are now,” he told the Senate Banking Committee.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.