| Indian Market | 11-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 16630.45 | 385.10 | 2.37% |
| Sensex | 55550.30 | 1216.49 | 2.24% |
| Banknifty | 34546.25 | 138.45 | 0.40% |
| Indian Market | 11-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 28210.35 | 693.25 | 2.52% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 10158.40 | 406.45 | 4.17% |
| India VIX | 25.35 | -2.61 | -9.33% |
| US Market | 11-Mar-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 32944.19 | -670.61 | -1.99% |
| S&P 500 | 4204.31 | -124.56 | -2.88% |
| Nasdaq | 12843.81 | -469.63 | -3.53% |
| Currency / Commodity | 11-Mar-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 76.40 |
| EUR/INR | 84.1460 |
| Dollar Index | 99.115 |
| US 10-year bond | 1.997 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 109.20 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 112.42 |
| Gold | $ 1992.25 |
| Bitcoin | $ 38,452 |
| FII / DII Activity | 11-Mar-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | 24,688.44 | |
| DII | 17,729.12 |
Technical Insight
- Nifty witness sharp bounce back from oversold zone, Nifty RSI & RSI average on 7-Mar EOD was 30.47 & 37.70 respectively, and as on 11-Mar-22 – RSI @ 46.37 & RSI average @ 40.76.
- Comparing RSI from 7-Mar & 11-Mar, witnessing sharp bounce back will get sold into at the same pace. Nifty is very much is down trend and taking support around 15700 to be closely watched.
- Nifty 200-DMA comes @ 16966 & 20-DMA @ 16766, both this level to act is resistance level and support could be 15702 & in case of major fall 15344 could act is important support level. Lower levels are derived from Fibonacci extension.
- Banknifty chart looks very different from Nifty, what is the difference – it is very weak compare to Nifty.
- Banknifty recent high was post Budget at 39424 on 3-Feb-22, post this correction in Banknifty – there has never been any significant bounce back.
- Banknifty could test 32155 (recent low) & 31504 level in case further weakness. Banknifty 200-`DMA @ 36685 could act as strong resistance level.
- Banknifty counter trade opportunity: US FOMC event will have direct impact on Banknifty and 10-Mar-22 high of 35374 – cross over this level could provide good entry opportunity.
Fundamental Insight
- Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. This week US fed is expected to increase federal fund rate by 25 bps and comment on future steps to taken or guidance is keenly watched by market participants.
- Commodity price, Nickel touched $100,000 in a short squeeze and LME banned trading in Nickel. Crude Oil cooed-off from high as initial reaction to US sanctions on Russian oil and Natural gas got absorbed.
- Market witness relief rally from oversold zone once, on back of some diplomatic solution to Russia-Ukraine crisis.
- News has been back-an-forth on Russia-Ukraine crisis, as latest news on Friday is – Ukraine foreign minister denied any positive development in 3rd round of talk.
- Stagflation: is currently key fear that market is factoring into, due to war, sanctions and uncertain geo-political situation will impact global economic recovery.
- Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.
Market View & Strategy
- Central bank’s policy was moving towards higher interest rate and balance sheet shrinking and now Russia-Ukraine crisis will make business environment suffer as high commodity will be a big challenge – we call this as “Double whammy”.
- In case there was no escalation on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed was on set to increase rate by 50 bps in upcoming FOCM meeting on 15 – 16 March. But due this crisis US Fed will be watchful and guided for rate hike of 25 bps points.
- Even in case of ceasefire, sanctions on Russia will remain and commodity prices will remain at elevated level unless there some dramatic change in fundamentals or ground level reality, we believe commodity prices will remain at elevated level for some time for now.
- In either or case, interest rate is moving higher but pace of increase may vary base on changing geo-political circumstances. Prolong escalation may impact decision making process for international business may get impacted. Indices around 10 – 12% off from recent high with more correction seen in broader market. Russia-Ukraine crisis may end sooner rather than later as NATO have intended not to joint militarily and convert into NATO vs Russia war.
- We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.