Tag: VIX

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Daily Report 23Jun-23

Wall Street closed flat to positive as US Fed chair Jerome Powell wraps testimony, NASDAQ gain by 0.95% indicate interest rate could be near its peak.

Bank Of England – BOE raises rates by 50-bps to 5.00%, rate increase above estimate, saying it needed to act against “significant” indictor that British inflation would take longer to fall.

Accenture result: revenue up 3% and operating income by 9% to 2.36 billion or 14.2% or revenue.  Lower its guidance for FY23, fiscal year ending on 31-Aug.

F&O data: FII were net buyers in Index futures by 3188 contracts, net long: short position remains at 53.47%:46.53%.

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to remain in consolidation zone, but still is uptrend till Nifty @ 18567 & Banknifty @ 43314 holds on, Indices remain in narrow range and could wait for clarity.

Market View: Going into trade on Friday, cues for IT stocks are weak on back of lower of guidance by ACCENTURE.  Crude oil was down by 4% overnight as BOE raises rates by 50-bps.  Market cues remain weak and perfectly set for major correction, any correction for current level would be healthy.

SGX Nifty @ 18809.50 down 21.50 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Report 19-Jun-23

Wall Street witness some profit booking as trading near its recent high as all major central banks policy is out.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony this week will be key event.

Defense stocks will be in focus as PM Modi’s visit to U.S. – there is already HAL & G.E. deal which is announced, details of the deal will provide further clarity.

F&O Data: FII are net long in Index futures by 18385 contracts, long: short exposure now stands at 55.13%:44.87%.

VIX @ 10.84: trading near lower end of the range.  

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, Nifty likely to test new life time high and see some profit booking.   Banknifty above 44360 could test new high.  Indices likely to trade in narrow range.

SGX Nifty @ 18909 up 11 points at 9:00 AM

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Weekly Reports

17-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We went into trade in this week expecting momentum build-up as there was US Fed, ECB & BOJ central bank’s meeting.  After RBI’s meeting last week, indices failed to gained momentum as supply seen from higher level.  Mid-cap & Small-cap continues its upward momentum as defense stocks rallies. 

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.18 & RSI average @ 64.90.  Nifty after consolidation this week continues its upward momentum with highest closing at 18826.
• Banknifty RSI @ 53.53 & RSI average @ 54.94.  Banknifty is currently underperforming Nifty.  Last week RBI meeting & this week, US Fed, ECB & BOJ continues to weight on Banknifty.

Going into trade this week, Nifty support level @ 18503 & Banknifty support level at 43552 will re critical.  Indices continue to indicate mix view with upside target on Nifty @ 18965 & Banknifty @ 44959.  As we have seen in last 2 weeks, indices remain in narrow range, we could again see this week indices trade in narrow range, we would be watching VIX closely for any change in view on increase in volatility.


Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Trade Deficit Widens To $22.1 Billion In May
2) Government Lines Up Two Tranches Of Sovereign Gold Bonds In First Half Of FY24
3) Housing Prices Rise in Top Indian Cities, Delhi Sees Highest Spike

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

Major events such as RBI MPC meeting in previous week, US Fed, ECB & BOJ meeting outcome concluded in week just concluded, outcome was mostly in-line with market expectation.  Globally market is trading near their respective high, marking 2023 with positive return after flat or negative 2022.  

Our strategy this week to remain invested around 80% – 85% and any rally to be used to reduce exposure and fresh deployment of fund to be done on major correction.  Meanwhile if market continue to trade in range, stock rotation with limit of 85% could be preferred.

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Daily Report 16-Jun-23

Wall Street rallied over 1% on all major indices as market bets that interest rate in U.S. interest rate is near its peak, S&P500 & NASDAQ closed at 14-months high.

ECB raises rates by 25-bps to 4.00%, highest interest rate in 22 years and signal more hike to come, ECB maintain long term inflation target at 2%, which is currently far away from 6.1% latest inflation figures.

Bank of Japan kept rate unchanged at -0.10%, maintain yield for JGB at -0.50% to 0.50%.

VIX @ 11.08: continues to trade near lower end of the range.

Approach on indices: Indices likely to bounce after correction / profit booking seen post US Fed meeting outcome.  Indices do indicate sharp probability of bounce back.  Nifty continue to trade above important support level where as Banknifty underperform and closed below 43552.

SGX Nifty @ 18802.50 up 42.50 points at 8:55 AM

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Daily Report 14-Jun-23

Wall Street had another positive session after CPI came @ 4.0% Vs estimate of 4.1%.  U.S. Core CPI rises to 5.3% in May lowest since November 2021.

US Fed meeting tonight is now factoring in 95% probability of pause after CPI & Core CPI data came in-line with estimate.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell post policy press conference will be key event.

FMCG & defensives stocks continue to lead the Indices higher as Banks & IT stocks see some profit booking.  Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks continue to outperform.

VIX @ 11.11: surprisingly low, any increase in VIX needs to watch-out.

Approach on Indices: With Nifty is less than 170 points away from lifetime high at 18887, expected to test.  Banknifty likely to test 44965 as Banknifty likely to react to US Fed news.  Indices remain in uptrend till Nifty is above 18458 & Banknifty above 43552.  

Market View: We are going into event with indices near all time high, even if indices move higher, we would continue to reduce exposure on higher level.  In near term – even if US Fed decision comes favourable in-line with market expectation – we expect profit booking.

SGX Nifty @ 18830.50 up 45.50 points at 8:35 AM

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Daily Report 13-Jun-23

India’s CPI for May came at 4.25% as compared to 4.7% in April and against estimate of 4.31%.  IIP data for April 2023 came at 4.2% as compared to revise growth of 1.7% in March 2023.

Wall Street closes strong, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at highest since April 2022.  Oracle hit record high ahead of quarterly results as investor awaits inflation data & US Fed interest rate decision.

US CPI & Core CPI inflation data due today ahead of US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow.  Wall Street going into event with positive trend as market trade near April 2022 highs.

F&O data: FII covered short & net addition in long position by 10481 contracts, FII long: short position stands at 49.29%:50.71%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.92 Vs 0.84 previous.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate around 40 – 50 points higher on positive global cues & lower CPI inflation data.  Nifty could test around 18700 & Banknifty around 44360 before an important US CPI & Core CPI data.  Indices remain in uptrend till Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43552 holds and set to make fresh new high.

SGX Nifty @ 18751 up 52.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Reprot 12-Jun-23

Wall Street had another muted session as all eyes are now set of 3 major central banks meeting this week.  US Fed meeting outcome on 14-Jun-23 & BOJ meeting outcome on 16-Jun-23 are key event.

Defense stocks continue to remain in focus as multiple positive triggers helping this sectors, HDFC Defense NFO concluded on 30-May-23 – fund would be deployed.

LT, BHARATFORG & private companies which are involved in defense sector is expected to do well after sharp rally in defense PSU’s.

VIX @ 11.12: continue to trade near lower end of the range.

Approach on Indices: Technical set up has turned neutral after a failed attempt to gain momentum after breakout from Nifty @ 18619 & Banknifty above 44360.  SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening around 60 – 70 points, first hour trade would be important after gap-up opening.  

Market View: Mid-cap & Small-cap have rallied and outperformed Nifty 50 & Sensex and index heavy weights.  Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks are expected to witness some profit booking or consolidation in next few weeks, look for opportunity to book part profit.

SGX Nifty @ 18671.50 up 61.50 points at 8:25 AM.

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Daily Report 9-Jun-23

RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 6.50%.  Governor Das: Inflation still above target.  RBI MPC maintain stance – Withdrawal of Accommodation.

Wall Street gained as tech stocks led the rally as Dollar index cooled-off and volatility in U.S. is below pre-COVID level.  Market now focused on U.S. inflation data and US Fed meeting next week.

RBI lowers FY24 inflation target at 5.1%, aims at 4% target.  GDP growth forecast at 6.5% for FY24.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 4542 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.05 Vs 1.37 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.77 Vs 0.95 previous

Approach on Indices: Nifty remain in uptrend above 18619 & Banknifty could gain momentum above 44360.  Yesterday’s correction can be considered as consolidation and due to weekly option expiry.

SGX Nifty @ 18755 up 34.50 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 8-Jun-23

Wall Street ended mix as market looks forward for US Fed meeting and CPI & Core CPI inflation data next week.  Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 66.8% probability of pause.

RBI MPC meeting outcome today at 10:00 AM: – Market expecting another pause today, any change in stance from withdrawal of accommodation or relaxation in CRR could provide positive trigger.

Defense stocks continue to remain in focus ahead of PM Modi’s visit to U.S.  HAL & GE defense deal could benefit 600 MSME.

F&O data: FII bought 8579 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.01 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.95 Vs 0.97 previous.

Approach on Indices: Nifty giving clear break-out is heading towards fresh life-time high of 18887.  Banknifty is expected to take decisive move after today’s policy

Market View: Stocks & sectors leading are changing fast, we see typical move where tail end of the stocks is showing huge rally which market usually witness in last leg of rally before formation of top.  Just need to keep close look on any sign of trend reversal.

SGX Nifty @ 18832 up 20 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Report 31-May-23

Wall Street closed mixed as U.S. lawmaker oppose deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling limit, market gets support from NVIDIA as the chipmaker company entered rare club of $1 trillion valuation.

Crude oil down 4% overnight as market now factors in another 25-bps rate hike by US Fed on 14-Jun-23.  WTI Crude oil below $70 & Brent crude below $75.

MSCI changes will be effective today, expect major volatility in last 30 minutes.  KOTAKBANK, HAL, MAXHEALTH & SONACOMS in focus.

China’s manufacturing PMI for May shrinks further, puts question on economic recovery post re-opening from stringent lock-down.

Approach on Indices: Indices trading near resistance zone after rally on Monday & Tuesday, going into trade on Wednesday is indicating 60 – 70 points gap-down opening, we expect profit booking to accelerate around Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 support level.

SGX Nifty @ 18661.50 down 68.50 points at 8:15 AM

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