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Daily Reports

Daily Report 5-Jun-23

Wall Street had massive rally on Friday as DOW30 rallied over 2%, S&P500 was up 1.45% & NASDAQ up by 1.07%.  U.S. debt deal and strong jobs data provided much needed trigger for Friday’s rally.

OPEC+ nations decided another cut in crude oil production, SAUDI ARABIA to make additional cut of 1 million barrels per day as part of new OPEC+ deal.

RBI Weekly bulletin: Deposit growth at 10.9% & Credit growth comes at 15.4% for fortnightly 19-May-23.

F&O data: FII added 4979 contracts in index futures, net long: short remain at 47.55%:52.45%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.95 Vs 1.00 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.80 Vs 0.76 previous.

Approach on indices: SGX Nifty indicate opening on Nifty spot around 18619 & Banknifty around 44360, we expect another round of rally and indices to test higher levels this week.

SGX Nifty @ 18725.50 up 96.50 points at 8:20 AM

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Weekly Reports

3-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices on weekly basis closed flat and traded in narrow range, momentum seen in Mid-cap & small-cap and ended the week with minor gains.  We went into trade with a view that any rally to be utilized for reducing the exposure and incase of any correction will deploy fund which is currently available.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 63.88 & RSI average @ 64.87.  Nifty extension of rally from 17553 to 18458 & retracement to 18060 – extension of rally to test 18619 & 18965.
• Banknifty RSI @57.72 & RSI average @ 61.88.  Banknifty closing at 43937 on Friday around 44018 – previous Friday’s level.

Approach on Technical: We will start our view on technical based on indicative opening of SGX which will be around 80 – 100 points higher compared to Friday’s closing.

Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43552 will act as support level for uptrend to remain positive, Indices are heading higher on Nifty towards 18965 & Banknifty towards 44959.  

Fundamental Insight

1) GST Collections Grow 12% To Rs 1.57 Lakh Crore in May
2) Forex Reserves Decline for Second Week To $589.14 Billion
3) India’s GDP Grows Faster Than Expected At 6.1% In Q4, 7.2% In FY23
4) India Restricts Fiscal Deficit to Targeted 6.4% Of GDP In FY23
5) Bank Credit to Industry Decelerates in April to 7%: Reserve Bank Of India
6) Core Sector Growth Flat in April

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

RBI MPC meeting on 8-Jun-23, with previous inflation data well below 6% and within comfortable range, market participant expected to announce pause and maintain its stance – “Withdrawal of accommodation”.  RBI may change norms for CRR which could be beneficial for Banks, we expect banks to have another round of rally.

Going into trade this week, we remain positive and expecting momentum to accelerate supported by pause in interest rate by RBI on 8-Jun-23 & US Fed on 14-Jun-23.   We will position our self with bullish view and may deploy fund fully before event or post event.  We expect huge market swings with a positive bias as Nifty may soon test new life time high and Banknifty toward 45000 level.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 2-Jun-23

Indian market witness late pressure due to weekly options expiry as Banknifty took major dip below 44000 to close 43790.  Auto stocks were mostly on positive side ahead of monthly sales data.

Wall Street Nasdaq and S&P 500 surged to nine-month closing highs on Thursday as signs of slowing wage pressure raised hopes the Federal Reserve will pause hiking interest rates and investors cheered a vote in Congress to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling.

GST collections in May for transactions in April stood at Rs 1,57,090 crore, an increase of 12% over a year earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Thursday.

F&O data: FII continue to unwind long position & add short position & net short by 22693 contracts in index futures.  

Approach on Indices: Indices indicate gap-up opening of around 70 – 80 points, likely to recover last hour fall seen yesterday.  Nifty @ 18619 & Banknifty @ 44360 will act as resistance / target level.

SGX Nifty @ 18640.50 up 77 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 01-Jun-23

GDP is estimated to have grown 7.2%, according to the second advance estimates of national income, as compared with 9.1% in FY22.

US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support.  Wall Street ended with minor cuts as fear on interest rate hike continues.  US debt deal need to be passed through senate before 5-Jun-23.

Adani To Raise $3.5 Billion From Share Sale, in three Group Companies.  ADANIENT, ADANITRANS & ADANIGREEN in focus.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 21752 contracts in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 0.99 Vs 1.32 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.82 Vs 1.22 previous.  

Approach on Indices: Technical indicates indices have satisfied near term correction requirement, weekly index options expiry today – Nifty range seen between 18500 – 18600 & Banknifty range seen 44000 – 44300 with positive bias.

SGX Nifty @ 18606.50 down 57.50 points at 8:20 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 31-May-23

Wall Street closed mixed as U.S. lawmaker oppose deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling limit, market gets support from NVIDIA as the chipmaker company entered rare club of $1 trillion valuation.

Crude oil down 4% overnight as market now factors in another 25-bps rate hike by US Fed on 14-Jun-23.  WTI Crude oil below $70 & Brent crude below $75.

MSCI changes will be effective today, expect major volatility in last 30 minutes.  KOTAKBANK, HAL, MAXHEALTH & SONACOMS in focus.

China’s manufacturing PMI for May shrinks further, puts question on economic recovery post re-opening from stringent lock-down.

Approach on Indices: Indices trading near resistance zone after rally on Monday & Tuesday, going into trade on Wednesday is indicating 60 – 70 points gap-down opening, we expect profit booking to accelerate around Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 support level.

SGX Nifty @ 18661.50 down 68.50 points at 8:15 AM

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Weekly Reports

27-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical view we have mentioned our expected target of 18499 which was achieved and Banknifty fell short of our target of Banknifty testing fresh high.  Indices manage to hold on to Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181, so we have maintained our bullish view.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.49 & RSI average @ 63.38.  Nifty closing @ 18499 is almost at upper end of the range 18458 / 18498.  Nifty closing above 18499 for next 2 trading session can be considered as positive.

• Banknifty RSI @ 64.20 & RSI average @ 63.77.  Banknifty underperformed this week and it trading below 44151 its recent top made on 15-May-23.

Approach on Technical: Nifty has outperformed this week closing above 18458 level – recent top.  Banknifty underperformed and closed below 44151.

Going into trade on Monday SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening of around 100 points, Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 – Friday’s closing to be considered as near-term support level for any long position for next week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Services Sector To Drive GDP Growth To 4.9% In Q4 FY23: ICRA
2) IMD Retains Forecast Of A ‘Normal’ Monsoon In 2023
3) FDI Declines 16% In FY23, First Year-On-Year Contraction In Decade
4) RBI Governor Das Says Won’t Be Surprised If India’s FY23 GDP Growth Exceeds 7%
5) Forex Reserves Drop By $6 Billion To $593.5 Billion

Equichain Wealth – Market View & Strategy

Technically, indices have closed at a level which can be considered as double top and fresh strength from current level could well open upside by next 2% – 3% on indices in next week.  As U.S. debt ceiling limit likely to hit by 1st week of June, any disappointing news or failure to finalize debt ceiling deal, market could react sharply lower.  We also see probability of profit booking even though deal gets through.  

Going into trade this week, we have been invested around 85% in our portfolio and we would prefer to reduce exposure by 5% – 10% on rally and deploy fresh fund only on major decline.  If next week market momentum remains positive with positive news flow, we believe market would provide opportunity for stock rotation within portfolio while keeping investment at same level.  In F&O segment we may prefer to go long with hedge position as we expect increase in volatility in next week.

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