Tag: Technical Analysis

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Daily Report 6-Jul-23

Wall Street had muted session with minor cuts as US FOMC meeting minutes revealed hawkish signal and indicated rate hike on 26-Jul-23, next US Fed meeting.

Reacting US FOMC meeting outcome, US 10-year bond yield is now trading a 3.95% & Dollar index at 103 indicates further rate hike expected.

Crude oil prices remain steady, WTI Crude @ $72 & Brent crude trading around $77 level.  Base metal prices remain stable.

F&O data: FII added 4605 contracts in index futures, net long position now at 72.39%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.47 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.08 Vs 1.38 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate flat to negative start, with weekly F&O expiry, today could be a day of big correction which is overdue for some time now.  On lower side Nifty @ 19154 & Banknifty @ 44530 to act as strong support level.  

GIFTNIFTY @ 19488 down 24 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Report 5-Jul-23

U.S. market was closed on 4-Jul-23 for Independence Day.  Monthly economic data will be released later this week and US FOMC meeting minutes to be released tonight.

HDFCBANK quarterly business updates shows mix trend on merge entity.  HDFCBANK standalone business updates – loan growth at 15.8% & deposit growth at 19.2%.

LTIM to replace HDFC in Nifty from 13-Jul-23.  HDFC to de-list at trade as merge entity with HDFCBANK from 13-Jul-23.

F&O data: FII long position now stands at 71.89% or by 89765 contracts.  Nifty PCR @ 1.47 Vs 1.48 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 1.38 Vs 1.39 previous.

Approach on Indices: Run-up on indices is too fast supported by short covering, we would wait for correction to take fresh long and expect correction from current level.

GIFTYNIFTY @ 19498.50 up 5 points at 8:40 AM

Market View: Broder market sees some sign of consolidation; we would continue to follow strategy to increase cash level on rally and take opportunity to take fresh view on long position on correction & consolidation.  Q1FY24 result season will be key and provide further cues.  Quarterly business updates so far has been in-line with recent rally.

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Daily Report 3-Jul-23

Wall Street continue to rally on Friday ahead of holiday shorten week in US and major jobs data by end of this week.  NASDAQ was up by 1.45% as tech stocks continue to do well.

China’s Caixin PMI continue to show weakness, eased to 50.5 from 50.9 indicate marginal expansion as 50 level mark separates expansion from contraction.

SGX Nifty to trade as GIFT NIFTY from 3-Jul-23, derivative contract with notional value of about $7.5 billion will shift to GIFTNIFTY.

F&O Data: FII added 16333 contracts in index futures, net long position now stands at 72433 contracts.  Net long: short contract now stands at 69.21%:30.79%.

Approach on Indices: Indices in unchartered territory, Nifty @ 19362 & Banknifty @ 44959 could be next target / resistance level and support level on Nifty @ 18932 & Banknifty @ 44253.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19365 up 20 points at 8:20 AM

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Weekly Reports

1-Jul-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We went into last week with muted expectation, but indices witness healthy rally in a holiday shorten week and F&O expiry.  HDFCBANK & HDFC merger will be effective from 1-Jul-23 and that trigger huge rally in HDFC twins.  All major indices were up by around 2.5% recording in one of the best weeks in recent times.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 72.04 & RSI average @ 64.08.  Nifty RSI back to above 70 level and gap between RSI & average has more than 8 and indicate overbought zone in near term.

• Banknifty RSI @ 65.36 & RSI average @ 55.93.  Banknifty gap between RSI & RSI Average is around 10 points indicate overbought zone.

Approach on Technical: Indices rally this week was sharp which has increase gap between RSI & RSI average by 8 to 10 points on Nifty & Banknifty, indicate overbought zone in near term.

Our strategy this week would be seek buying opportunity around on Nifty around 18932 & 18765 & Banknifty around 44530 & 44253.  Going into trade next week do indicate overbought zone and current momentum could take indices higher on Monday before we expect some cool-off or profit taking.

Fundamental Insight

1) Share Of Loans Bearing Over 9% Interest Rate Hits 56.1% In March, Says RBI
2) Commerce Minister Asks Bankers to Ensure Enhanced, Affordable Credit to MSME Exporters
3) HDFC Bank-HDFC Merger To Be Effective July 1

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

This week, SGX Nifty will start to trade in GIFT CITY from Monday 3-Jul-23 and will be now know as GIFTNIFTY.  Market momentum remains strong and major economic data will come only later in the week.

Our strategy going into this week will be to find suitable entry opportunity and would be preferred on decline and will continue to maintain exposure around 70% to 85% as we mentioned in last week.  We would continue to seek opportunity with basket of stocks and place our allocation to be beneficial going into result season.  We are optimistic on Banks & infrastructure and have cautious view on IT sectors.

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Daily Report 30-Jun-23

Wall Street gain on Thursday as bank outperforms and tech stocks take a breather after outperformance in recent times.  S&P500 index up by 0.45%.

HDFCBANK & HDFC lead the indices to new high as merger date finalized.  HDFCBANK & HDFC is all set to merge effective from 1-Jul-23 & will trade as merge entity from 13-Jul-23 likely.

US 10-year bond yield rises to 3.84% & Dollar Index currently trading at 103 after comment of Fed chair on further rate hike by end of year.  China’s PMI shrinks for the third straight month in June.  

F&O data: FII rollover @ 87%, net long: short remains at 66.42%:33.58%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.41 & Banknifty PCR @ 1.30.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat to positive opening, could continue to see positive movement, but we would wait for dip or correction any fresh entry

SGX Nifty @ 19185 up 35 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Report 27-Jun-23

Wall Street ended with losses as NASDAQ was down by 1.16% as recession fear as investor believes that aggressive rate by US Fed could lead to economic slowdown.

Mid-cap 100 was up by 0.92% & Small-cap up by 0.62% indicate positive momentum may continue after negative close last week.

Commodity continues to remain near lower as China’s recovery fail to cheer the market.

F&O data: FII net buyer by 2023 contract in index futures, net long: short position remains at 53.26%:46.74%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.93 Vs 0.93 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.84 Vs 0.88 previous.

Approach on Indices: Indices trading in narrow range with low volatility for quite some time now, we expect some increase in volatility as just two trading day for F&O expiry for June series.

Market View: We would prefer to book profit and reduce exposure and wait for better clarity.  Market seeing supply at higher level as global cues remain mix and no much fresh news to guide market in near term.  

SGX Nifty @ 18736.50 up 32.50 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Report 26-Jun-23

Wall Street was down by 0.65% to 1.01% as economic worries continues to weigh on sentiment.  Rate hike of 50-bps to 5.00% by BOE surprised market participant.

Russia’s political crisis seems to be de-escalated over the weekend but may continue to remain an important geo-political event to watch out for, crude oil rises on Monday morning as supply may be impacted.

SGX Nifty indicate flat opening going into trade on Monday morning for final F&O expiry for June series.

VIX @ 11.24: continue to trade near lower end of the range.

Approach on Indices: Technical do indicate further correction and consolidation and Nifty @ 18567 & Banknifty @ 43314 could act as important support level, below these indices could witness further downside.

Market View: There are very little cues from global as well domestic market as indices continue to trade in narrow range, Mid-cap & Small-cap corrected after 12 weeks of gain and we think further correction in Mid-cap & Small-cap likely. 

SGX Nifty @ 18718 up 3 points at 8:25 AM

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26-Jun-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Weekly Reports

24-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, trend remain mix as indices was trading near its recent highs, BSE Sensex made fresh and manage to cross December 2022 high while Nifty is yet to make fresh lift-time high.  Market witness profit booking and selling pressure from higher level, Mid-cap & Small-cap were looser on weekly basis after 12 weeks of continuous gains.

Technical Insight

 Nifty RSI @ 54.84 & RSI average @ 62.25, Nifty RSI indicating negative trend in near term with 18567 as first support level & 18374 as intermediate support level.  

• Banknifty RSI @ 47.92 & RSI average @ 51.38.  Banknifty is trading below its 20-DMA @ 43956 which is now acting as resistance level.

Approach on Technical: Indices are currently trading near upper-end of the range and facing supply ahead of F&O expiry next week for June 2023 series.  

Nifty below 18567 & Banknifty below 43314 could open further downside which could test lower level on Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 42493.  This week could turn out to be broader correction, while uptrend would resume in case of Nifty manages to move above 18807 & Banknifty above 44046.

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI Nowcasting Model Pegs Q1 FY24 GDP Growth At 7.9%
2) MPC Minutes: Job to Contain Inflation Only Half-Done, Says RBI Governor
3) EPFO Adds 17.20 Lakh Net Members In April: Labour Ministry

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

We believe it’s time to book profit and reduce exposure, with Q1FY24 result season to begin from 2nd week of July, market will focus on final F&O expiry and global cues.  We have reduced our exposure around 75%, but will continue to maintain allocation around 70% on lower side and 85% on higher side.  

Going into final F&O expiry for June series, we expect market to correct / consolidate at lower level which could provide fresh entry opportunity.

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24-Jun-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Daily Report 23Jun-23

Wall Street closed flat to positive as US Fed chair Jerome Powell wraps testimony, NASDAQ gain by 0.95% indicate interest rate could be near its peak.

Bank Of England – BOE raises rates by 50-bps to 5.00%, rate increase above estimate, saying it needed to act against “significant” indictor that British inflation would take longer to fall.

Accenture result: revenue up 3% and operating income by 9% to 2.36 billion or 14.2% or revenue.  Lower its guidance for FY23, fiscal year ending on 31-Aug.

F&O data: FII were net buyers in Index futures by 3188 contracts, net long: short position remains at 53.47%:46.53%.

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to remain in consolidation zone, but still is uptrend till Nifty @ 18567 & Banknifty @ 43314 holds on, Indices remain in narrow range and could wait for clarity.

Market View: Going into trade on Friday, cues for IT stocks are weak on back of lower of guidance by ACCENTURE.  Crude oil was down by 4% overnight as BOE raises rates by 50-bps.  Market cues remain weak and perfectly set for major correction, any correction for current level would be healthy.

SGX Nifty @ 18809.50 down 21.50 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Report 19-Jun-23

Wall Street witness some profit booking as trading near its recent high as all major central banks policy is out.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony this week will be key event.

Defense stocks will be in focus as PM Modi’s visit to U.S. – there is already HAL & G.E. deal which is announced, details of the deal will provide further clarity.

F&O Data: FII are net long in Index futures by 18385 contracts, long: short exposure now stands at 55.13%:44.87%.

VIX @ 10.84: trading near lower end of the range.  

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, Nifty likely to test new life time high and see some profit booking.   Banknifty above 44360 could test new high.  Indices likely to trade in narrow range.

SGX Nifty @ 18909 up 11 points at 9:00 AM

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19-Jun-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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