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Daily Reports

Daily Report 21-Jul-23

Wall Street: TESLA & NETFLIX was down after result, NASDAQ & S&P500 ended down by 2.05% & 0.68% respectively.  DOW30 ended in green with 0.47% gains.

INFY Q1FY24 result in-line with estimate, revised revenue guidance downward to 1% – 3.5% from earlier 4% – 7%.  INFY ADR down by 8.5% overnight, expect to open with deep cuts.

RELIANCE will come out the result today.  LT result on 25-Jul-23 will consider Buy-back and special dividend and record date for same will be 2-Aug-23.

F&O data: FII added 11091 contracts in index futures, net long position for FII is now above 1 lakh contracts in index futures, net long position now stands at 70.68%.

Approach on Indices: GIFT Nifty indicate down opening due to INFY & other IT stocks could remain under pressure, Nifty @ 19697 & Banknifty @ 45110 could act as support level in case of any correction.  Banknifty will continue to outperform.

GIFT NIFTY @ 19880 Vs 19967 Nifty future previous close at 8:05 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 18-Jul-23

Wall Street had another positive as financials rally ahead of their earnings – Bank of America & Morgan Stanley are due to announce result on Tuesday & Goldman Sachs on Wednesday.

Reliance – JIO financial services demerger on 20-Jul-23.  JIO financial to be included in Nifty 50, BSE Sensex and other indices.  Pre-open price discovery session will be held between 9:00 to 10:00 AM.

HDFCBANK records 30% growth in PAT year on year, HDFC ADR was up 4.43%; Most brokerage house maintains over-weight on HDFCBNAK with target of 2010 – 2200.

F&O data: FII net long: short position at 70.25%:29.75%. Nifty PCR @ 1.54 Vs 1.34 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.46 Vs 0.86 previous.  

Approach on Indices: PCR do indicate overbought zone, but expect another round of short covering.  Indices are trading in unchartered territory.  Nifty around 19800 & Banknifty around 46000 likely to be tested today.  

GIFT NIFTY @ 19769.50 Vs 19730 Nifty future previous close.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 17-Jul-23

Wall Street had flat closing on Friday after rally seen earlier this week on back of declining inflation data.  U.S. market recorded weekly gain on major indices round 2% to 3%.

HDFCBANK to announce result today, 42 HDFCBANK shares will be allotted for every 25 HDFC shared held.  HDFCBANK could see some pressure.

LTIM & TATAELXSI are two IT companies are set to announce result today ahead of LTTS tomorrow and INFY on 20-Jul-23.  INFY rallied around Rs 90/- or 6% in last two trading days.

F&O data: FII long: short position continues to remain at 70.29%:29.73%, Nifty PCR @ 1.34 Vs 1.11 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.86 Vs 0.78.

Approach on Technical: Momentum on indices continue to remain strong, Nifty around 19550 zone Banknifty around 45000 is seeing some supply.  Nifty @ 19232 & Banknifty @ 44228 are key levels

GIFT NIFTY @ 19635 up 16 points at 8:05 AM

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Weekly Reports

15-Jul-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade last week, we had maintained cautious view with allocation to be kept around 70% to 85%.  Market momentum seems to be very strong as tech stock which came out with Q1FY24 result, stock prices reacted positively despite weak numbers.

Technical Insight

Nifty RSI @ 72.51 & RSI average @ 70.30.  Nifty closing @ 19564.50 is highest closing recorded in this rally.  Nifty next target / resistance comes at 19716 & support level comes at 19371 & 19232.

Banknifty RSI @ 58.15 & RSI average @ 59.06.  Banknifty closing on Friday’s closing at 44819, immediate resistance at 45110 & support level comes at 44228.

Approach on Technical: Indices rally looks a bit over-stretched.  Momentum on Nifty is very strong and indicate that outperformance may continue over Banknifty in near term.

Our strategy would focus on any long trade would be short term in nature, we continue to remain cautious after huge rally on indices without any major correction.  Nifty @ 19232 & Banknifty @ 44773 would act as strong support level.  Once this level is broken, can expect further downside.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Trade Deficit Narrows To $20.1 Billion In June As Exports, Imports Decline
2) India’s WPI Deflation Widens To Near Eight-Year Low In June
3) HDFC Shareholders Allotted Over 311 Crore Shares Of HDFC Bank

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

We see current rally and momentum very strong as reaction to weak result from IT stocks supported by positive commentary from management that worst is over.  We are already at lower end of the exposure and current rally would stretch valuation a bit more.  HDFCBANK will come out with result on 17-Jul-23, which will provide cues on who banking stocks would react?  Loan growth and advance remain high at average of 15%.  

We are comfortable with our current exposure in equity around 70% to 85% and continue to find opportunity of stock rotation and maintain allocation level at current level.  We would review IT stocks as worst may be behind us and inflation cooling off in US will provide much needed boost for tech spending helping IT stocks.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 14-Jul-23

Wall Street had another positive session as PPI & Core PPI data decline more than estimate.  Many big US Banks will come out with their quarterly earnings and provide fresh cues.

Brent Crude back above $80 as market sentiment improves after US CPI inflation data on Wednesday & PPI data yesterday.  Dollar Index below 100 would improve risk-on sentiment.

Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 seen some selling pressure / supply at higher level as valuation looks stretch going into result season.  HDFCBANK Q1FY24 result on 17-Jul-23 will be key.

F&O data: FII net sell 9554 contracts in index futures, net long: short remains at 69.22%:30.78%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.11 Vs 0.88 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.78 Vs 0.67 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate 50 – 70 points gap-up opening, indices continue to consolidate could trigger another round rally if supported by HDFCBANK & INFY result next week.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19554 Vs 19475 Nifty future previous close

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 12-Jul-23

Wall Street ended higher ahead of important US inflation data.  JP Morgan and other financials gained ahead of result later this week and PPI data on Wednesday.

India’s inflation data will be released today at 5:30 PM.  HCLTECH & TCS are due to announce their result today.  IT stocks going into result with low expectation.

GST Council meeting: GST increase to 28% on online-gaming, horse racing and casino.

F&O data: FII added net long 5151 contracts in Nifty while FII were net seller by 4600 in Banknifty & 541 in FINNIFTY futures.  Nifty PCR @ 1.08 stable.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.67 is near to oversold zone.

Approach on Indices: Banknifty is currently trading around important support level.  Nifty is trading near upper end of the range and break above 19524 could trigger another round of rally.  Banknifty trading near 44773 – an important support level.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19545 up 8 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 11-Jul-23

Wall Street had another positive session as it awaits CPI & PPI data on Wednesday & Thursday respectively.  NASDAQ closed flat as tech stocks seen profit booking at higher level.

PM Modi ‘s visit to France in focus: India set to buy 26 Naval Rafales & 3 Scorpene Subs.  Defense procurement board gives clearance ahead of PM’s visit.

Metal stocks were in focus as China slips to brink of deflation, adding urgency to stimulus package.  CPI data was flat in June and PPI fall by 5.4%.

F&O data: FII added 2979 contracts in index futures, net long: short position remains at 71.86%:28.14%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.98 Vs 0.89 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 0.74 Vs 0.75 previous.

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to consolidate, Nifty trading above important support level @ 19181 & Banknifty is trading close to important support level @ 44773.  Banknifty below 44773 could open further downside to 44228 level.

GIFTNIFTY 19484.50 up 28 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 10-Jul-23

Wall Street had another weak to flat session as jobs data were strong and market corrected on strong jobs data.  Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 91% probability of 25-bps rate hike in next US Fed meeting.

Reliance Industries will be in focus as it approved buyback of Reliance retails shares at 1362 per share.  Reliance retail in fully owned subsidiary of Reliance industries and unlisted and only minority shares are in public.

HAL wins deal of 458 crores from defense – Indian Navy for 2 helicopters.  Defense minister on 3-day visit to Malaysia.

F&O data: FII sold 11244 contracts in index futures, net long position remains at 70.44%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.89 Vs 1.48 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.75 Vs 1.12 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate flat to weak opening, Nifty @ 19181 & Banknifty @ 44228 likely to be tested and key support level.  

GIFTYNIFTY @ 19422.50 down 35.50 points

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-Jul-23

Wall Street had muted session with minor cuts as US FOMC meeting minutes revealed hawkish signal and indicated rate hike on 26-Jul-23, next US Fed meeting.

Reacting US FOMC meeting outcome, US 10-year bond yield is now trading a 3.95% & Dollar index at 103 indicates further rate hike expected.

Crude oil prices remain steady, WTI Crude @ $72 & Brent crude trading around $77 level.  Base metal prices remain stable.

F&O data: FII added 4605 contracts in index futures, net long position now at 72.39%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.47 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.08 Vs 1.38 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate flat to negative start, with weekly F&O expiry, today could be a day of big correction which is overdue for some time now.  On lower side Nifty @ 19154 & Banknifty @ 44530 to act as strong support level.  

GIFTNIFTY @ 19488 down 24 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 5-Jul-23

U.S. market was closed on 4-Jul-23 for Independence Day.  Monthly economic data will be released later this week and US FOMC meeting minutes to be released tonight.

HDFCBANK quarterly business updates shows mix trend on merge entity.  HDFCBANK standalone business updates – loan growth at 15.8% & deposit growth at 19.2%.

LTIM to replace HDFC in Nifty from 13-Jul-23.  HDFC to de-list at trade as merge entity with HDFCBANK from 13-Jul-23.

F&O data: FII long position now stands at 71.89% or by 89765 contracts.  Nifty PCR @ 1.47 Vs 1.48 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 1.38 Vs 1.39 previous.

Approach on Indices: Run-up on indices is too fast supported by short covering, we would wait for correction to take fresh long and expect correction from current level.

GIFTYNIFTY @ 19498.50 up 5 points at 8:40 AM

Market View: Broder market sees some sign of consolidation; we would continue to follow strategy to increase cash level on rally and take opportunity to take fresh view on long position on correction & consolidation.  Q1FY24 result season will be key and provide further cues.  Quarterly business updates so far has been in-line with recent rally.

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