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Daily Reports

Daily Report 8-Jun-23

Wall Street ended mix as market looks forward for US Fed meeting and CPI & Core CPI inflation data next week.  Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 66.8% probability of pause.

RBI MPC meeting outcome today at 10:00 AM: – Market expecting another pause today, any change in stance from withdrawal of accommodation or relaxation in CRR could provide positive trigger.

Defense stocks continue to remain in focus ahead of PM Modi’s visit to U.S.  HAL & GE defense deal could benefit 600 MSME.

F&O data: FII bought 8579 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.01 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.95 Vs 0.97 previous.

Approach on Indices: Nifty giving clear break-out is heading towards fresh life-time high of 18887.  Banknifty is expected to take decisive move after today’s policy

Market View: Stocks & sectors leading are changing fast, we see typical move where tail end of the stocks is showing huge rally which market usually witness in last leg of rally before formation of top.  Just need to keep close look on any sign of trend reversal.

SGX Nifty @ 18832 up 20 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 7-Jun-23

Wall Street had another flat session, as market awaits US CPI & Core CPI data next week ahead of US Fed meeting on 14-Jun-23.

India’s GDP growth for FY24 is seen at 6.3% as compared with a previous estimate of 6.6% in January, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

HAL gets in-principle nod for deal with GE to make engines in India: Sources.  Deal likely to get signed when PM visit U.S. later in June.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 10457 contracts, now FII have turned net short with 46.19%:53.81 long: short exposure.  

Approach on Indices: Indices are seeing sideways consolidation and we expect positive break-out.  RBI MPC policy outcome tomorrow morning will provide directional move.

Market View:
Defense stocks were in focus, news of HAL deal with GE, Mid-cap & Small-cap will continue to remain in focus as it could benefit 600 MSME companies.  Broader market will take directional move only after RBI MPC decision.

SGX Nifty @ 18704 up 25 points at 8:35 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-Jun-23

Wall Street seen some profit booking on ISM services PMI data which came below estimate at 50.3 – indicates flat.  Crude oil gave up some of the gains made after OPEC+ nations production cut announcement.

Defense stocks were flying all around as we see HDFC defense NFO funds getting deployed.  M&M, AXISBANK & TATAMOTORS were major gainers on Nifty 50, while DIVISLAB, ASIANPAINT & TECHM witness some profit booking.

IT stocks ADR were under pressure on NASDAQ, INFY ADR down by 2.53% & WIPRO ADR down by 2.63%.

F&O data: FII were net buyer by 7448 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.00 Vs 0.95 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.87 Vs 0.80 previous.

Approach on Indices: Nifty above 18619 & Banknifty above 44360 could be considered as fresh positive trigger, Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43781 to act as support level.

Market View: We would position our self for a potential rally only on some positive news flow and trigger by global cues or RBI MPC event on 8-Jun-23.  Banknifty could lead next round of rally.

SGX Nifty @ 18703 down 22 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 2-Jun-23

Indian market witness late pressure due to weekly options expiry as Banknifty took major dip below 44000 to close 43790.  Auto stocks were mostly on positive side ahead of monthly sales data.

Wall Street Nasdaq and S&P 500 surged to nine-month closing highs on Thursday as signs of slowing wage pressure raised hopes the Federal Reserve will pause hiking interest rates and investors cheered a vote in Congress to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling.

GST collections in May for transactions in April stood at Rs 1,57,090 crore, an increase of 12% over a year earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Thursday.

F&O data: FII continue to unwind long position & add short position & net short by 22693 contracts in index futures.  

Approach on Indices: Indices indicate gap-up opening of around 70 – 80 points, likely to recover last hour fall seen yesterday.  Nifty @ 18619 & Banknifty @ 44360 will act as resistance / target level.

SGX Nifty @ 18640.50 up 77 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 01-Jun-23

GDP is estimated to have grown 7.2%, according to the second advance estimates of national income, as compared with 9.1% in FY22.

US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support.  Wall Street ended with minor cuts as fear on interest rate hike continues.  US debt deal need to be passed through senate before 5-Jun-23.

Adani To Raise $3.5 Billion From Share Sale, in three Group Companies.  ADANIENT, ADANITRANS & ADANIGREEN in focus.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 21752 contracts in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 0.99 Vs 1.32 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.82 Vs 1.22 previous.  

Approach on Indices: Technical indicates indices have satisfied near term correction requirement, weekly index options expiry today – Nifty range seen between 18500 – 18600 & Banknifty range seen 44000 – 44300 with positive bias.

SGX Nifty @ 18606.50 down 57.50 points at 8:20 AM

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Weekly Reports

27-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical view we have mentioned our expected target of 18499 which was achieved and Banknifty fell short of our target of Banknifty testing fresh high.  Indices manage to hold on to Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181, so we have maintained our bullish view.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.49 & RSI average @ 63.38.  Nifty closing @ 18499 is almost at upper end of the range 18458 / 18498.  Nifty closing above 18499 for next 2 trading session can be considered as positive.

• Banknifty RSI @ 64.20 & RSI average @ 63.77.  Banknifty underperformed this week and it trading below 44151 its recent top made on 15-May-23.

Approach on Technical: Nifty has outperformed this week closing above 18458 level – recent top.  Banknifty underperformed and closed below 44151.

Going into trade on Monday SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening of around 100 points, Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 – Friday’s closing to be considered as near-term support level for any long position for next week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Services Sector To Drive GDP Growth To 4.9% In Q4 FY23: ICRA
2) IMD Retains Forecast Of A ‘Normal’ Monsoon In 2023
3) FDI Declines 16% In FY23, First Year-On-Year Contraction In Decade
4) RBI Governor Das Says Won’t Be Surprised If India’s FY23 GDP Growth Exceeds 7%
5) Forex Reserves Drop By $6 Billion To $593.5 Billion

Equichain Wealth – Market View & Strategy

Technically, indices have closed at a level which can be considered as double top and fresh strength from current level could well open upside by next 2% – 3% on indices in next week.  As U.S. debt ceiling limit likely to hit by 1st week of June, any disappointing news or failure to finalize debt ceiling deal, market could react sharply lower.  We also see probability of profit booking even though deal gets through.  

Going into trade this week, we have been invested around 85% in our portfolio and we would prefer to reduce exposure by 5% – 10% on rally and deploy fresh fund only on major decline.  If next week market momentum remains positive with positive news flow, we believe market would provide opportunity for stock rotation within portfolio while keeping investment at same level.  In F&O segment we may prefer to go long with hedge position as we expect increase in volatility in next week.

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