Tag: Fundamental Insight

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Weekly Reports

15-Jul-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade last week, we had maintained cautious view with allocation to be kept around 70% to 85%.  Market momentum seems to be very strong as tech stock which came out with Q1FY24 result, stock prices reacted positively despite weak numbers.

Technical Insight

Nifty RSI @ 72.51 & RSI average @ 70.30.  Nifty closing @ 19564.50 is highest closing recorded in this rally.  Nifty next target / resistance comes at 19716 & support level comes at 19371 & 19232.

Banknifty RSI @ 58.15 & RSI average @ 59.06.  Banknifty closing on Friday’s closing at 44819, immediate resistance at 45110 & support level comes at 44228.

Approach on Technical: Indices rally looks a bit over-stretched.  Momentum on Nifty is very strong and indicate that outperformance may continue over Banknifty in near term.

Our strategy would focus on any long trade would be short term in nature, we continue to remain cautious after huge rally on indices without any major correction.  Nifty @ 19232 & Banknifty @ 44773 would act as strong support level.  Once this level is broken, can expect further downside.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Trade Deficit Narrows To $20.1 Billion In June As Exports, Imports Decline
2) India’s WPI Deflation Widens To Near Eight-Year Low In June
3) HDFC Shareholders Allotted Over 311 Crore Shares Of HDFC Bank

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

We see current rally and momentum very strong as reaction to weak result from IT stocks supported by positive commentary from management that worst is over.  We are already at lower end of the exposure and current rally would stretch valuation a bit more.  HDFCBANK will come out with result on 17-Jul-23, which will provide cues on who banking stocks would react?  Loan growth and advance remain high at average of 15%.  

We are comfortable with our current exposure in equity around 70% to 85% and continue to find opportunity of stock rotation and maintain allocation level at current level.  We would review IT stocks as worst may be behind us and inflation cooling off in US will provide much needed boost for tech spending helping IT stocks.

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15-Jul-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Weekly Reports

1-Jul-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We went into last week with muted expectation, but indices witness healthy rally in a holiday shorten week and F&O expiry.  HDFCBANK & HDFC merger will be effective from 1-Jul-23 and that trigger huge rally in HDFC twins.  All major indices were up by around 2.5% recording in one of the best weeks in recent times.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 72.04 & RSI average @ 64.08.  Nifty RSI back to above 70 level and gap between RSI & average has more than 8 and indicate overbought zone in near term.

• Banknifty RSI @ 65.36 & RSI average @ 55.93.  Banknifty gap between RSI & RSI Average is around 10 points indicate overbought zone.

Approach on Technical: Indices rally this week was sharp which has increase gap between RSI & RSI average by 8 to 10 points on Nifty & Banknifty, indicate overbought zone in near term.

Our strategy this week would be seek buying opportunity around on Nifty around 18932 & 18765 & Banknifty around 44530 & 44253.  Going into trade next week do indicate overbought zone and current momentum could take indices higher on Monday before we expect some cool-off or profit taking.

Fundamental Insight

1) Share Of Loans Bearing Over 9% Interest Rate Hits 56.1% In March, Says RBI
2) Commerce Minister Asks Bankers to Ensure Enhanced, Affordable Credit to MSME Exporters
3) HDFC Bank-HDFC Merger To Be Effective July 1

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

This week, SGX Nifty will start to trade in GIFT CITY from Monday 3-Jul-23 and will be now know as GIFTNIFTY.  Market momentum remains strong and major economic data will come only later in the week.

Our strategy going into this week will be to find suitable entry opportunity and would be preferred on decline and will continue to maintain exposure around 70% to 85% as we mentioned in last week.  We would continue to seek opportunity with basket of stocks and place our allocation to be beneficial going into result season.  We are optimistic on Banks & infrastructure and have cautious view on IT sectors.

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1-Jul-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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3-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices on weekly basis closed flat and traded in narrow range, momentum seen in Mid-cap & small-cap and ended the week with minor gains.  We went into trade with a view that any rally to be utilized for reducing the exposure and incase of any correction will deploy fund which is currently available.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 63.88 & RSI average @ 64.87.  Nifty extension of rally from 17553 to 18458 & retracement to 18060 – extension of rally to test 18619 & 18965.
• Banknifty RSI @57.72 & RSI average @ 61.88.  Banknifty closing at 43937 on Friday around 44018 – previous Friday’s level.

Approach on Technical: We will start our view on technical based on indicative opening of SGX which will be around 80 – 100 points higher compared to Friday’s closing.

Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43552 will act as support level for uptrend to remain positive, Indices are heading higher on Nifty towards 18965 & Banknifty towards 44959.  

Fundamental Insight

1) GST Collections Grow 12% To Rs 1.57 Lakh Crore in May
2) Forex Reserves Decline for Second Week To $589.14 Billion
3) India’s GDP Grows Faster Than Expected At 6.1% In Q4, 7.2% In FY23
4) India Restricts Fiscal Deficit to Targeted 6.4% Of GDP In FY23
5) Bank Credit to Industry Decelerates in April to 7%: Reserve Bank Of India
6) Core Sector Growth Flat in April

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

RBI MPC meeting on 8-Jun-23, with previous inflation data well below 6% and within comfortable range, market participant expected to announce pause and maintain its stance – “Withdrawal of accommodation”.  RBI may change norms for CRR which could be beneficial for Banks, we expect banks to have another round of rally.

Going into trade this week, we remain positive and expecting momentum to accelerate supported by pause in interest rate by RBI on 8-Jun-23 & US Fed on 14-Jun-23.   We will position our self with bullish view and may deploy fund fully before event or post event.  We expect huge market swings with a positive bias as Nifty may soon test new life time high and Banknifty toward 45000 level.

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3-Jun-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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