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Daily Report 16-Jun-23

Wall Street rallied over 1% on all major indices as market bets that interest rate in U.S. interest rate is near its peak, S&P500 & NASDAQ closed at 14-months high.

ECB raises rates by 25-bps to 4.00%, highest interest rate in 22 years and signal more hike to come, ECB maintain long term inflation target at 2%, which is currently far away from 6.1% latest inflation figures.

Bank of Japan kept rate unchanged at -0.10%, maintain yield for JGB at -0.50% to 0.50%.

VIX @ 11.08: continues to trade near lower end of the range.

Approach on indices: Indices likely to bounce after correction / profit booking seen post US Fed meeting outcome.  Indices do indicate sharp probability of bounce back.  Nifty continue to trade above important support level where as Banknifty underperform and closed below 43552.

SGX Nifty @ 18802.50 up 42.50 points at 8:55 AM

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Daily Report 14-Jun-23

Wall Street had another positive session after CPI came @ 4.0% Vs estimate of 4.1%.  U.S. Core CPI rises to 5.3% in May lowest since November 2021.

US Fed meeting tonight is now factoring in 95% probability of pause after CPI & Core CPI data came in-line with estimate.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell post policy press conference will be key event.

FMCG & defensives stocks continue to lead the Indices higher as Banks & IT stocks see some profit booking.  Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks continue to outperform.

VIX @ 11.11: surprisingly low, any increase in VIX needs to watch-out.

Approach on Indices: With Nifty is less than 170 points away from lifetime high at 18887, expected to test.  Banknifty likely to test 44965 as Banknifty likely to react to US Fed news.  Indices remain in uptrend till Nifty is above 18458 & Banknifty above 43552.  

Market View: We are going into event with indices near all time high, even if indices move higher, we would continue to reduce exposure on higher level.  In near term – even if US Fed decision comes favourable in-line with market expectation – we expect profit booking.

SGX Nifty @ 18830.50 up 45.50 points at 8:35 AM

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Daily Report 13-Jun-23

India’s CPI for May came at 4.25% as compared to 4.7% in April and against estimate of 4.31%.  IIP data for April 2023 came at 4.2% as compared to revise growth of 1.7% in March 2023.

Wall Street closes strong, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at highest since April 2022.  Oracle hit record high ahead of quarterly results as investor awaits inflation data & US Fed interest rate decision.

US CPI & Core CPI inflation data due today ahead of US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow.  Wall Street going into event with positive trend as market trade near April 2022 highs.

F&O data: FII covered short & net addition in long position by 10481 contracts, FII long: short position stands at 49.29%:50.71%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.92 Vs 0.84 previous.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate around 40 – 50 points higher on positive global cues & lower CPI inflation data.  Nifty could test around 18700 & Banknifty around 44360 before an important US CPI & Core CPI data.  Indices remain in uptrend till Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43552 holds and set to make fresh new high.

SGX Nifty @ 18751 up 52.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Reprot 12-Jun-23

Wall Street had another muted session as all eyes are now set of 3 major central banks meeting this week.  US Fed meeting outcome on 14-Jun-23 & BOJ meeting outcome on 16-Jun-23 are key event.

Defense stocks continue to remain in focus as multiple positive triggers helping this sectors, HDFC Defense NFO concluded on 30-May-23 – fund would be deployed.

LT, BHARATFORG & private companies which are involved in defense sector is expected to do well after sharp rally in defense PSU’s.

VIX @ 11.12: continue to trade near lower end of the range.

Approach on Indices: Technical set up has turned neutral after a failed attempt to gain momentum after breakout from Nifty @ 18619 & Banknifty above 44360.  SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening around 60 – 70 points, first hour trade would be important after gap-up opening.  

Market View: Mid-cap & Small-cap have rallied and outperformed Nifty 50 & Sensex and index heavy weights.  Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks are expected to witness some profit booking or consolidation in next few weeks, look for opportunity to book part profit.

SGX Nifty @ 18671.50 up 61.50 points at 8:25 AM.

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Daily Report 9-Jun-23

RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 6.50%.  Governor Das: Inflation still above target.  RBI MPC maintain stance – Withdrawal of Accommodation.

Wall Street gained as tech stocks led the rally as Dollar index cooled-off and volatility in U.S. is below pre-COVID level.  Market now focused on U.S. inflation data and US Fed meeting next week.

RBI lowers FY24 inflation target at 5.1%, aims at 4% target.  GDP growth forecast at 6.5% for FY24.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 4542 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.05 Vs 1.37 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.77 Vs 0.95 previous

Approach on Indices: Nifty remain in uptrend above 18619 & Banknifty could gain momentum above 44360.  Yesterday’s correction can be considered as consolidation and due to weekly option expiry.

SGX Nifty @ 18755 up 34.50 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Report 7-Jun-23

Wall Street had another flat session, as market awaits US CPI & Core CPI data next week ahead of US Fed meeting on 14-Jun-23.

India’s GDP growth for FY24 is seen at 6.3% as compared with a previous estimate of 6.6% in January, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

HAL gets in-principle nod for deal with GE to make engines in India: Sources.  Deal likely to get signed when PM visit U.S. later in June.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 10457 contracts, now FII have turned net short with 46.19%:53.81 long: short exposure.  

Approach on Indices: Indices are seeing sideways consolidation and we expect positive break-out.  RBI MPC policy outcome tomorrow morning will provide directional move.

Market View: Defense stocks were in focus, news of HAL deal with GE, Mid-cap & Small-cap will continue to remain in focus as it could benefit 600 MSME companies.  Broader market will take directional move only after RBI MPC decision.

SGX Nifty @ 18704 up 25 points at 8:35 AM

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Daily Report 6-Jun-23

Wall Street seen some profit booking on ISM services PMI data which came below estimate at 50.3 – indicates flat.  Crude oil gave up some of the gains made after OPEC+ nations production cut announcement.

Defense stocks were flying all around as we see HDFC defense NFO funds getting deployed.  M&M, AXISBANK & TATAMOTORS were major gainers on Nifty 50, while DIVISLAB, ASIANPAINT & TECHM witness some profit booking.

IT stocks ADR were under pressure on NASDAQ, INFY ADR down by 2.53% & WIPRO ADR down by 2.63%.

F&O data: FII were net buyer by 7448 contracts in index futures, Nifty PCR @ 1.00 Vs 0.95 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.87 Vs 0.80 previous.

Approach on Indices: Nifty above 18619 & Banknifty above 44360 could be considered as fresh positive trigger, Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43781 to act as support level.

Market View: We would position our self for a potential rally only on some positive news flow and trigger by global cues or RBI MPC event on 8-Jun-23.  Banknifty could lead next round of rally.

SGX Nifty @ 18703 down 22 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Report 5-Jun-23

Wall Street had massive rally on Friday as DOW30 rallied over 2%, S&P500 was up 1.45% & NASDAQ up by 1.07%.  U.S. debt deal and strong jobs data provided much needed trigger for Friday’s rally.

OPEC+ nations decided another cut in crude oil production, SAUDI ARABIA to make additional cut of 1 million barrels per day as part of new OPEC+ deal.

RBI Weekly bulletin: Deposit growth at 10.9% & Credit growth comes at 15.4% for fortnightly 19-May-23.

F&O data: FII added 4979 contracts in index futures, net long: short remain at 47.55%:52.45%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.95 Vs 1.00 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.80 Vs 0.76 previous.

Approach on indices: SGX Nifty indicate opening on Nifty spot around 18619 & Banknifty around 44360, we expect another round of rally and indices to test higher levels this week.

SGX Nifty @ 18725.50 up 96.50 points at 8:20 AM

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Daily Report 2-Jun-23

Indian market witness late pressure due to weekly options expiry as Banknifty took major dip below 44000 to close 43790.  Auto stocks were mostly on positive side ahead of monthly sales data.

Wall Street Nasdaq and S&P 500 surged to nine-month closing highs on Thursday as signs of slowing wage pressure raised hopes the Federal Reserve will pause hiking interest rates and investors cheered a vote in Congress to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling.

GST collections in May for transactions in April stood at Rs 1,57,090 crore, an increase of 12% over a year earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Thursday.

F&O data: FII continue to unwind long position & add short position & net short by 22693 contracts in index futures.  

Approach on Indices: Indices indicate gap-up opening of around 70 – 80 points, likely to recover last hour fall seen yesterday.  Nifty @ 18619 & Banknifty @ 44360 will act as resistance / target level.

SGX Nifty @ 18640.50 up 77 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Report 01-Jun-23

GDP is estimated to have grown 7.2%, according to the second advance estimates of national income, as compared with 9.1% in FY22.

US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support.  Wall Street ended with minor cuts as fear on interest rate hike continues.  US debt deal need to be passed through senate before 5-Jun-23.

Adani To Raise $3.5 Billion From Share Sale, in three Group Companies.  ADANIENT, ADANITRANS & ADANIGREEN in focus.

F&O data: FII were net seller by 21752 contracts in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 0.99 Vs 1.32 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.82 Vs 1.22 previous.  

Approach on Indices: Technical indicates indices have satisfied near term correction requirement, weekly index options expiry today – Nifty range seen between 18500 – 18600 & Banknifty range seen 44000 – 44300 with positive bias.

SGX Nifty @ 18606.50 down 57.50 points at 8:20 AM

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