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Global Market – BOE hike rate by 50-bps & Powell’s testimony

Global Market – BOE hike rate by 50-bps & US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony

This week we will discuss, BOE surprises street by raising interest rate by 50-bps to 5.00% and US Fed chair Jerome Powell in a testimony over 2-days to US Congress indicated further rate hike by 1 or 2 before end of 2023.

BOE raises rates by 50-bps to 5.00% – highest level since 2008.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 for an increase to 5%, the highest level in 15 years and the biggest move since February.

Markets had priced in only a 40% chance of a half-point hike, with most economists anticipating a quarter point.

US Fed chair Jerome Powell – may need one or two more rate hike in 2023

Policymakers feel “it will be appropriate to raise rates again this year, and perhaps twice,” if the economy performs about as expected, even as they’ve been hiked to an appropriately restrictive level, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.

Fed officials held rates steady last week after 10 straight increases, giving themselves more time to evaluate how the economy is responding to recent banking stress and higher borrowing costs.  The move left the Fed’s benchmark rate steady in a range of 5% to 5.25%.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Barring BOE decision which hike rate by 50-bps, decision by all other major banks were in-line with market estimate.  Last week US Fed “PAUSE” on rake hike, ECB raise rates by 25-bps & BOJ maintain its negative interest rate policy and guidance on JGB remains at -0.50% to 0.50%.

We believe further rate hike could impact global economy, which could be pushed in recession for short period of time and globally central banks are prepared to take pain in near term for long term objective to keep inflation at 2%.

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Weekly Reports

24-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, trend remain mix as indices was trading near its recent highs, BSE Sensex made fresh and manage to cross December 2022 high while Nifty is yet to make fresh lift-time high.  Market witness profit booking and selling pressure from higher level, Mid-cap & Small-cap were looser on weekly basis after 12 weeks of continuous gains.

Technical Insight

 Nifty RSI @ 54.84 & RSI average @ 62.25, Nifty RSI indicating negative trend in near term with 18567 as first support level & 18374 as intermediate support level.  

• Banknifty RSI @ 47.92 & RSI average @ 51.38.  Banknifty is trading below its 20-DMA @ 43956 which is now acting as resistance level.

Approach on Technical: Indices are currently trading near upper-end of the range and facing supply ahead of F&O expiry next week for June 2023 series.  

Nifty below 18567 & Banknifty below 43314 could open further downside which could test lower level on Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 42493.  This week could turn out to be broader correction, while uptrend would resume in case of Nifty manages to move above 18807 & Banknifty above 44046.

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI Nowcasting Model Pegs Q1 FY24 GDP Growth At 7.9%
2) MPC Minutes: Job to Contain Inflation Only Half-Done, Says RBI Governor
3) EPFO Adds 17.20 Lakh Net Members In April: Labour Ministry

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

We believe it’s time to book profit and reduce exposure, with Q1FY24 result season to begin from 2nd week of July, market will focus on final F&O expiry and global cues.  We have reduced our exposure around 75%, but will continue to maintain allocation around 70% on lower side and 85% on higher side.  

Going into final F&O expiry for June series, we expect market to correct / consolidate at lower level which could provide fresh entry opportunity.

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