Global Market – US Fed to pause or hike rate by another 25-bps?
This week we will discuss whether US Fed will pause or hike rate by another 25-bps as widely expected by market. All major data has now been out which does indicate slowdown, now US GDP for Q1 for 2023 will be released on 27-Apr-23.
Key Economic data to be released in next week
1) CB Consumer Confidence
2) Advance GDP q/q
3) Unemployment claims
4) Core PCE Price Index
5) Employment Cost Index.
Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion
Now the focus will shift to US Fed meeting on 3-May-23, from 21-Apr-23 to 3-May-23 till Fed decision is out is currently under black out period. So now there will be no comment from US Fed members and major economic data will be last quarter advance GDP data and core PCE price index which could provide further cues.
We do believe, US Fed could surprise by temporary pause as it is done by RBI MPC meeting. So incoming data will have its impact and currently fed fund monitor tool indicate 89.1% probability of 25-bps rate hike as on 21-Apr-23. Even if there is rate hike by US Fed, we expect commentary to be dovish.