Category: Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 12-Mar-22

Post author By equichain
Post date March 13, 2022

Indian Market	11-Mar-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	16630.45	385.10	2.37%
Sensex	55550.30	1216.49	2.24%
Banknifty	34546.25	138.45	0.40%

Indian Market	11-Mar-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	28210.35	693.25	2.52%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	10158.40	406.45	4.17%
India VIX	25.35	-2.61	-9.33%

US Market	11-Mar-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	32944.19	-670.61	-1.99%
S&P 500	4204.31	-124.56	-2.88%
Nasdaq	12843.81	-469.63	-3.53%

Currency / Commodity	11-Mar-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	76.40
EUR/INR	84.1460
Dollar Index	99.115
US 10-year bond	1.997 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 109.20
Brent Crude Oil	$ 112.42
Gold	$ 1992.25
Bitcoin	$ 38,452

FII / DII Activity	11-Mar-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		24,688.44
DII	17,729.12

Technical Insight

Nifty witness sharp bounce back from oversold zone, Nifty RSI & RSI average on 7-Mar EOD was 30.47 & 37.70 respectively, and as on 11-Mar-22 – RSI @ 46.37 & RSI average @ 40.76.
Comparing RSI from 7-Mar & 11-Mar, witnessing sharp bounce back will get sold into at the same pace. Nifty is very much is down trend and taking support around 15700 to be closely watched.
Nifty 200-DMA comes @ 16966 & 20-DMA @ 16766, both this level to act is resistance level and support could be 15702 & in case of major fall 15344 could act is important support level. Lower levels are derived from Fibonacci extension.
Banknifty chart looks very different from Nifty, what is the difference – it is very weak compare to Nifty.
Banknifty recent high was post Budget at 39424 on 3-Feb-22, post this correction in Banknifty – there has never been any significant bounce back.
Banknifty could test 32155 (recent low) & 31504 level in case further weakness. Banknifty 200-`DMA @ 36685 could act as strong resistance level.
Banknifty counter trade opportunity: US FOMC event will have direct impact on Banknifty and 10-Mar-22 high of 35374 – cross over this level could provide good entry opportunity.

Fundamental Insight

Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. This week US fed is expected to increase federal fund rate by 25 bps and comment on future steps to taken or guidance is keenly watched by market participants.
Commodity price, Nickel touched $100,000 in a short squeeze and LME banned trading in Nickel. Crude Oil cooed-off from high as initial reaction to US sanctions on Russian oil and Natural gas got absorbed.
Market witness relief rally from oversold zone once, on back of some diplomatic solution to Russia-Ukraine crisis.
News has been back-an-forth on Russia-Ukraine crisis, as latest news on Friday is – Ukraine foreign minister denied any positive development in 3rd round of talk.
Stagflation: is currently key fear that market is factoring into, due to war, sanctions and uncertain geo-political situation will impact global economic recovery.
Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.

Market View & Strategy

Central bank’s policy was moving towards higher interest rate and balance sheet shrinking and now Russia-Ukraine crisis will make business environment suffer as high commodity will be a big challenge – we call this as “Double whammy”.
In case there was no escalation on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed was on set to increase rate by 50 bps in upcoming FOCM meeting on 15 – 16 March. But due this crisis US Fed will be watchful and guided for rate hike of 25 bps points.
Even in case of ceasefire, sanctions on Russia will remain and commodity prices will remain at elevated level unless there some dramatic change in fundamentals or ground level reality, we believe commodity prices will remain at elevated level for some time for now.
In either or case, interest rate is moving higher but pace of increase may vary base on changing geo-political circumstances. Prolong escalation may impact decision making process for international business may get impacted. Indices around 10 – 12% off from recent high with more correction seen in broader market. Russia-Ukraine crisis may end sooner rather than later as NATO have intended not to joint militarily and convert into NATO vs Russia war.
We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.

Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 5-Mar-22

Post author By equichain
Post date March 5, 2022

Indian Market	4-Mar-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	16245.35	-413.05	-2.48%
Sensex	54333.81	-1524.71	-2.73%
Banknifty	34407.80	-2022.95	-5.55%

Indian Market	4-Mar-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	27517.10	-436.20	-1.56%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	9751.95	-34.70	-0.35%
India VIX	27.96	1.22	4.56%

US Market	4-Mar-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	33614.80	-443.75	-1.30%
S&P 500	4328.87	-55.75	-1.27%
Nasdaq	13313.44	-381.18	-2.78%

Currency / Commodity	4-Mar-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	76.16
EUR/INR	83.2259
Dollar Index	98.495
US 10-year bond	1.737 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 115..06
Brent Crude Oil	$ 118.03
Gold	$ 1974.30
Bitcoin	$ 39,024

FII / DII Activity	4-Mar-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		22,563.08
DII	16,742.75

Technical Insight

Nifty is now trading below its 200-DMA after it was broken on 24-Feb-22. Nifty made low of 16203.25 on 24-Feb-22 & made fresh low on 4-Mar-22 at 16133.80.
Nifty RSI @ 34.83 & RSI average @ 39.51. RSI above 30 – indicate, Nifty is trading near to oversold zone but it is not currently trading in oversold zone.
Nifty could test 15729 & 15378 in this on-going downtrend, Nifty could face resistance at 16936 & 17047. Major trend reversal only above 17794, high made post Budget on 2-Feb-22.
Nifty currently in lower-top / lower-bottom formation continues and VIX @ 27.96 closed on Friday, indicate high volatility to continue.
We see high volatility to continue, Nifty below 16200 may test 15729 & 15378 on lower side, at the same Nifty we expect Nifty to test 16936 & 17047 on higher side.

Fundamental Insight

Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. This week we will focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed chairman testimony to US Congress on 2 – 3 March 2022. Commodity prices is all over the place and its impact on fundamentals will be seen over a period of next 1 – 3 months.
The corridors will serve to evacuate civilians and deliver food and medicine to the cities that have been cut off from the world by #Russia.
Gold near 24-Feb-22 high closes on Friday @ $1974.30. Crude Oil at highest level since 2014 level. WTI Crude Oil @ $115.03 & Brent Crude Oil @ $118.03.
Base metals close on Friday at fresh high, Copper @ $4.9175. Agriculture products trade at fresh high as supply from Ukraine will get impacted and sanctions on Russia will also impact.
Russia=Ukraine crisis enters 10th Day. US & NATO have denied to engage militarily in ongoing conflict.
US Fed chairman Jerome Powell testimony: guided for rate hike of 25 bps in 15 – 16 March FOMC meeting.
Due to Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed insisted on change in its earlier stance of increasing rate at every meeting held in 2022 starting from March.
NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone request, says, we are not part of this war – Reuters.
Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.

Market View & Strategy

Central bank’s policy was moving towards higher interest rate and balance sheet shrinking and now Russia-Ukraine crisis will make business environment suffer as high commodity will be a big challenge – we call this as “Double whammy”.
In case there was no escalation on Russia-Ukraine crisis, US Fed was on set to increase rate by 50 bps in upcoming FOCM meeting on 15 – 16 March. But due this crisis US Fed will be watchful and guided for rate hike of 25 bps points.
Even in case of ceasefire, sanctions on Russia will remain and commodity prices will remain at elevated level unless there some dramatic change in fundamentals or ground level reality, we believe commodity prices will remain at elevated level for some time for now.
In either or case, interest rate is moving higher but pace of increase may vary base on changing geo-political circumstances. Prolong escalation may impact decision making process for international business may get impacted. Indices around 10 – 12% off from recent high with more correction seen in broader market. Russia-Ukraine crisis may end sooner rather than later as NATO have intended not to joint militarily and convert into NATO vs Russia war.
We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 20-Feb-22

Post author By equichain
Post date February 20, 2022

Indian Market	18-Feb-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17276.30	-98.45	-0.578%
Sensex	57832.97	-319.95	-0.55%
Banknifty	37599.15	-918.10	-2.38%

Indian Market	18-Feb-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	29201.30	-528.10	-1.78%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	10441.80	-251.50	-2.35%
India VIX	22.01	3.33	17.83%

US Market	18-Feb-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	34079.18	-658.88	-1.90%
S&P 500	4348.87	-69.77	-1.58%
Nasdaq	13548.07	-243.08	-1.76%

Currency / Commodity	18-Feb-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	74.6475
EUR/INR	84.7180
Dollar Index	96.105
US 10-year bond	1.927 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 91.80
Brent Crude Oil	$ 93.80
Gold	$ 1900.80
Bitcoin	$ 38,228

FII / DII Activity	18-Feb-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		12215.48
DII	10592.21

Technical Insight

Nifty fall from 18350 to 16833 continues to trade in narrow range expected to give decisive break on either direction.
While analyzing, we are also keeping in mind that last week started with news on Russia-Ukraine tension, despite of high volatility -Nifty manage to hold on to crucial level of 16833 taking support near 200-DMA @ 16799.
Nifty 100-DMA comes at 17617 and 200-DMA comes at 16851. Nifty trading in this range of 18 – 20 trading days. We expect Nifty to give move within next 2 weeks.
Banknifty RSI @ 47.55 & RSI average 50.83. Banknifty 100-DMA @ 37765 & 200-DMA @ 36554. We see this as classic case of base formation and ready for up move.
Strategy on technical view: Bottom formation process underway and will wait for firm indication to go aggressive long.

Fundamental Insight

This week in fundamental insight, we would like to highlight or to recall the fundamental value of the business rather than get carried away by the price movement happening currently. Volatility in market is mainly due to 2 reason – first is Russia-Ukraine crisis and the second is ongoing buzz on next move by US FOMC meeting on 15-16 March 2022
Q3FY22 result season concluded this week, normally companies announce quarterly result within 45 days of quarter end.
Indian IT companies are different from tech companies in US and new age tech companies or Fin-Tech companies.
Budget announce on 1-Feb-22 reiterated government fiscal expansion policy. RBI MPC Policy on 10-Feb-22 maintained accommodative stance. At some point these factors will come in focus and short-term news and events gets over.
Government cancels remaining FY22 gilt switch auctions as Budget aim complete: RBI. 10-year G-Sec closed at 6.64%.
FII continue its selling sphere so far for the month of February 2022 – FII sold 21,928 crores and starting from 1-Oct-21 to 18-Feb-22: FII sold 1.64 lakh crores in equity market.
We would like to highlight – in first 2 weeks of January where Nifty made a sharp rally from sub 17000 level to 18350 level in just 14 – 17 trading days, FII turned buyer in 4 – 5 trading days.

Market View & Strategy

Any major dip due to new of war and geo-political tension – this could well turn out to be a buying opportunity – “Value Buying”. This may come another 7 – 10 percent correction form current level.
So now the important question comes to our mind is “Who blinks first”. We see major decisive move till the end of financial year March 2022 and clear indication of that move is expected in next 2 weeks.
In short term we would prefer to play via Future & Options through proper hedging and due risk management. Volatility could well turn out to be an opportunity if goes in favour.
We firmly believe in playing on risk-reward as news from Russia-Ukraine is beyond analysis or prediction, still market will give huge swing as we have seen volatility last week.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 6-Feb-22

Post author By equichain
Post date February 6, 2022

Indian Market	4-Feb-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17516.30	414.35	2.42%
Sensex	58644.82	1444.59	2.53%
Banknifty	38789.35	1099.95	2.92%

Indian Market	4-Feb-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	30441.55	636.65	2.14%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	11197.40	205.50	1.87%
India VIX	18.90	-1.80	-8.70%

US Market	4-Feb-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	35089.74	364.27	1.05%
S&P 500	4500.54	68.69	1.55%
Nasdaq	14098.00	327.40	2.38%

Currency / Commodity	4-Feb-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	74.6975
EUR/INR	85.646
Dollar Index	95.455
US 10-year bond	1.916 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 91.95
Brent Crude Oil	$ 92.78
Gold	$ 1808.90
Bitcoin	$ 41,656

FII / DII Activity	4-Feb-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		7,695.27
DII	5,923.71

Key Events of this week

Bank of England committee voted to raise rates by 25 BPS to 0.5%. Four out of nine members pushed for 50 BPS rate hike, if done it would be unprecedented since BOE gained independence from government in 1997.
ECB President Lagarde comments were surprisingly hawkish as inflation hits record high, change from its policy statement where she expects inflation to cool-down. Market is expecting rate hike as early as next month and bond buying could end in 3rd quarter.
Crude Oil @ high since 2014 – WTI Crude & Brent Crude above $90: Oil prices are higher on geopolitical tensions as tension rises between Russia-Ukraine and winter storm in United States fueled concerns over supply disruption. An oil production and storage vessel exploded off the coast of Nigeria early on Wednesday.
Budget 2022: The country’s fiscal deficit settled at 6.9% of the GDP in 2021-22 and will be targeted at 6.4% in the upcoming fiscal, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her Budget 2022 speech.
If it (economy) continues to retain 8% real GDP growth by FY23 we should be at $5 trillion – V ANANTHA NAGESWARAN (Chief Economic Advisor).
Alphabet (Parent company of Google) announce result on 1-Feb-22 beat the market expectation and announced 20-for-1 stock split. META (parent company of Facebook) came out with disappointing result; META was down by 26.44% on 3-Feb-22. META reported first ever drop in daily active users.

Market View: RBI MPC Policy 7 – 9 February 2022 in focus – outcome on 9-Feb-22

Market will react to TATASTEEL & SBIN earnings on Monday opening. BANKBARODA other PSU bank came out with better-than-expected result.
Indian 10-year G-Sec touched 6.95% yesterday before it cooled-off to 6.8790% as RBI rejected bids for 2026 & 2035 bonds as traders asked for higher yield.
Inflation data release on 12-Jan-22 for December came at 5.59% which is within target range of RBI Committee target range of 4% (+ / -2%).
This can be taken as soft signal of what is coming in RBI policy on Wednesday. Indian remains at comfortable level on forex reserve and local liquidity as compared to some other developing countries.
Central Bank of Brazil increase interest rate by 150 bps from 9.25% to 10.75% on 2-Feb-22.

Our Approach

Budget has been positive for and maintain continuity from previous budget, Finance Minister has kept policy of fiscal support and expansion continue and it remains key trigger for Infrastructure for 2022.
Oil prices above $90 – retail prices for Petrol & Diesel have not been increase since November, oil marketing companies such as HPCL, BPCL & IOC to remain under pressure where as ONGC, RELIANCE and other Oil producers will be beneficiaries.
IT stocks – Q3 result season ended with on positive note, stock prices witness profit booking on good result. IT stocks have corrected on profit booking and post correction it provides decent entry opportunity.
RBI MPC Policy outcome will be key this time for Banking stocks and overall market as focus will whether easy monetary policy continues or there is any change.
We continue to remain invested around 85 – 95% and post RBI policy may decide whether to reduce exposure or remain fully invested. US Fed rate hike in March 2022 is confirmed, so now market is fearing 50 bps hike in March policy.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 30-Jan-22

Post author By equichain
Post date January 30, 2022

Indian Market	28-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17101.95	-515.20	-2.92%
Sensex	57200.23	-1836.95	-3.11%
Banknifty	37689.40	115.10	0.31%

Indian Market	28-Jan-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	29804.90	-758.70	-2.48%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	10991.90	-425.05	-3.72%
India VIX	20.70	1.81	9.58%

US Market	28-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	34725.47	460.10	1.34%
S&P 500	4431.85	33.92	0.77%
Nasdaq	13770.60	1.70	0.01%

Currency / Commodity	28-Jan-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	75.1050
EUR/INR	83.6260
Dollar Index	97.218
US 10-year bond	1.7780 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 87.31
Brent Crude Oil	$ 89
Gold	$ 1790.10
Bitcoin	$ 38,112

FII / DII Activity	28-Jan-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		22,158.15
DII	10849.40

Key Events of this week

Truncated but eventful week as final F&O expiry for January series and market reacted to hawkish US FOMC meeting outcome on Thursday 27-Jan-22.
Nifty & BSE Sensex decline by around 3% while Banknifty manage to close with 0.31% gain on weekly basis. Mid-Cap 100 was down by 2.48% & Small-Cap was down by 3.72% compared to last Friday.
Market reacted to RELIANCE & ICICIBANK result on Monday as it was declared after market closing on Friday. In a busy result season, market focus continues to remain on US FOMC outcome as new-age technology stocks continue to correct. LT Q3 result declared after market hours this Friday will react to its numbers of Monday.
US FOMC Meeting outcome: guided for rate hike in March 2022. Bond buying program to end by March 2022 as per revised scheduled on 15-Dec-21 meeting. US Fed’s policy is more hawkish than market expected as Fed chairman did not rule out hike in every meeting in 2022. Goldman Sachs expected 5 rate-hike in 2022.
IT Major along with new technology companies continue its southward journey. Starting from 1-Oct-21, FII sold in equity worth 1.38 lakh crores and that huge but countered by DII and retail investor.
Crude Oil trading at highest level since October 2014 as Russia – Ukraine tension, in case situation escalates Crude Oil supply could be impacted to Europe and few Asian countries.

Market View: Economic Survey on 31-Jan-22 & Union Budget on 1-Feb-22.

Market focus will shift to major yearly event – Union Budget to be tabled in parliament on 1-Feb-22 at 11:00 AM.
Market interestingly poised as globally there as shift in interest rate policy by central banks across the globe. US Fed guided for rate hike in March 2022 where as China reduced rate by 10 BPS after April 2020 to support struggling economy.
RBI MPC Policy meeting scheduled on 7 – 9 February 2022, outcome on 9-Feb-22. Fiscal math set in Budget will guide the next move by RBI or will play important role in next few policies.
Last CPI inflation data released on 12-Jan-22 came at highest level since July 2021 at 5.59% for December compared to 4.91% in November. It remained within MPC target range of 4% (+/-2%).
We continue to believe that year 2022 will not provide easy run as compared to 2021 and lots of volatility can be expected in this year. We expect Budget to provide government’s focus and clarity on steps coming up.
US FOMC decision to increase rate from March 2022 was in-line with market expectation and global market move seen in last 2 weeks. But the big question remains is that have this impact fully played out?
We believe, emerging market and currencies have not yet seen fully impact of easy money policy reversal by US Fed.

Our Approach

We are currently invested in range of 70 – 85% and are currently sitting on liquid around 15 – 30%. In case of major sell-off in Budget it could well provide an opportunity to add long position.
We will review fresh buy post Budget or post 15-Feb-22 as we believe by 15-Feb all near factor would have played out. Q3 result season would get over, Market would have understood and digested Budget. RBI MPC policy decision would be out.
As we mentioned in our last week report, we continue to follow that strategy – below mentioned statement from previous week report.
By this time some clarity emerges, we will prefer to increase cash level higher to 30 – 40% as any knee jerk reaction and may prefer to increase exposure as it may provide good buying opportunity in Telecom & Infrastructure sectors (domestic infra companies – excluding metals), as we see this sector outperforming in 2022.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 23-Jan-22

Post author By equichain
Post date January 23, 2022

Indian Market	21-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17617.15	-638.60	-3.50%
Sensex	59037.18	-2185.85	-3.57%
Banknifty	37574.30	-796.10	-2.07%

Indian Market	21-Jan-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	30563.60	-1426.05	-4.46%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	11416.95	-492.55	-4.14%
India VIX	18.89	2.33	14.07%

US Market	21-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	34265.37	-1646.44	-4.58%
S&P 500	4397.93	-264.92	-5.68%
Nasdaq	13768.90	-1124.90	-7.55%

Currency / Commodity	21-Jan-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	74.3975
EUR/INR	84.274
Dollar Index	95.62
US 10-year bond	1.770 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 84.84
Brent Crude Oil	$ 87.74
Gold	$ 1835.90
Bitcoin	$ 35,771

FII / DII Activity	21-Jan-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		12643.61
DII	508.04

Key Events of this week

Indian market started the week on positive note as IT stocks witness some value buying post its initial reaction – TCS & INFY hit fresh 52 week high on Monday before seeing some profit booking.
Global cues this week was negatives as US 10-year bond yield touching 1.90%, highest level since January 2021 before cooling off to 1.770% to end the week. Crude Oil also tested fresh 4 months high of Supply concern as Iraq to Turkey pipeline hit by explosion.
Nasdaq was down 7.55% / 1124.90 points this week, correction for recent high 16200 level is around 15%. DOW30 was down 4.58% & S&P500 down by 5.68% on weekly basis.
Indian market witnesses a sharp reversal in trend mainly on global cues Risk-Off trade triggered by fear in rising US 10-year bond yield ahead of crucial US FOMC meeting outcome on 27-Jan-22.
Globally next generation technology companies / financial technology companies lead the decline as market participants fear the reversal in easy money policy.
RELIANCE came out with result on Friday after market hours and ICICIBANK declare Q3 result on Saturday – market will react to its earnings on Monday.
India continues to record more than 3 lakh fresh COVID-19 infection but hospitalization remains low is keeping market calm on this front. Globally COIVD-19 cases continue to rise but economic activity continues with any major disruption.

Market View: Last week on Monthly F&O expiry, US FOMC meeting on 27-Jan-22.

Global Risk-Off trade continues globally – as market continues to fear more policy measures could be announce by US Fed in its meeting this week to curb rising inflation.
RELIANCE result could fail to cheer market on Monday – although Net profit came higher than expected on other income, JIO numbers were disappointing.
ICICIBANK result were higher than estimates and it could help Banknifty to outperform Nifty in near term. ICICIBANK continues its stellar performance almost beating HDFCBANK on all front in last few quarters.
US Market on Friday witness sell-off in 2nd half and SGX Nifty indicate 200 points gap-down opening on Monday, SGX Nifty closed at 17438 on Friday. Reason for this correction is that market is fearing rate hike by US Fed could begin as early as March 2022.
Last week we did mention to avoid next gen stocks and maintain cash level around 15 – 20 percent. Next 2 weeks will be critical as US FOMC Meeting outcome on 27-Jan-22 & Union Budget on 1-Feb-22.
Global Risk-Off this week was surprising for many including us and last week, Nifty was just 300 points from fresh all time high and now Nifty is almost 1000 points away from 18600 level.
Technically, Indices are in oversold zone in near term. VIX closed at 18.89 & Nifty PCR @ 0.87 indicate oversold zone. As we have 2 major scheduled events in next 7 trading days – VIX remain at elevated remain is absolutely in line with expectation.

Our Approach

We believe, from here on to next 3 weeks – till end of Q3 result season by 15-Feb-22 – we would approach market in 3 different probable outcomes.
Before we go through the different scenarios let us understand what is currently build in prices and we see market as current level.
US Fed chairman Jerome Powell testimony before Senate Banking committee on 11-Jan-22 said: to curb inflation while doing no harm. “We’re really just going to be moving over the course of this year to a policy that is closer to normal, but it’s a long road to normal from where we are now,” he told the Senate Banking Committee.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 16-Jan-22

Post author By equichain
Post date January 17, 2022

Indian Market	14-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	18255.75	443.05	2.49%
Sensex	61223.03	1478.38	2.47%
Banknifty	38370.40	630.80	1.67%

Indian Market	14-Jan-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	31989.65	878.10	2.82%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	11909.50	416.60	3.62%
India VIX	16.56	-1.04	-5.92%

US Market	14-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	35911.81	-319.85	-0.88%
S&P 500	4662.85	-14.17	-0.30%
Nasdaq	14893.80	-42.10	-0.28%

Currency / Commodity	14-Jan-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	73.94
EUR/INR	84.712
Dollar Index	94.76
US 10-year bond	1.727 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 84.42
Brent Crude Oil	$ 86.36
Gold	$ 1816
Bitcoin	$ 42,926

FII / DII Activity	14-Jan-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII		4002.94
DII	3629.03

Key Events of this week

This week all 4 IT major announce Q3 result – INFY, TCS & WIPRO announce Q3 numbers on 12-Jan while HCLTECH came with its numbers aftermarket hours on Friday.
HDFCBANK declare Q3 result on 15-Jan-22, Saturday, result was in-line with expectation. HDFCBANK had last month tested 1440 level on lower side and tested 1575 before FII resume it selling in HDFCBANK.
Key Domestic data: IIP growth at 9 months low – IIP growth for November at 1.4% compared to 4% growth recorded in October.
Inflation highest since July 21: CPI inflation for December stood at 5.59% compared to 4.91% for November. This remains with target range of RBI committee of 4% (+/- 2%).
Wall street ended the week on flat to negative bias, Indian Indices manage to record around 2.5% growth. Banknifty was up by 1.67% on weekly basis, underperformed this week Nifty & BSE Sensex unlike previous week, where Banknifty gained over 6%
OMICRON fear continues to keep global market on edge, as number of fresh cases continue to rise. India recorded more than 2 lakh cases per day for 4 consecutive days.
Hospitalization is low in this wave due to higher vaccination, global market is seeing some recovery on economy front as OMICRON fears eases, Crude Oil at fresh 3 months high, Brent Crude @ $84.25 & Brent Crude Oil @ $86.36.

Market View: 2nd week of Q3 result season

In last 2 weeks, Nifty & Sensex record around 5% gain and Banknifty recorded 8% up move. Banknifty will witness its reaction to HDFCBANK’s result – We believe HDFCBANK’s result is good although some profit booking can’t be rule out.
Q3 result season will continue to remain in focus, few Nifty-50 companies announcing result this week are ULTRACEMCO, BAJFINANCE, LT, BAJAJ-AUTO, ASIANPAINT, HUL, HDFCLIFE, JSWSTEEL, RELIANCE & ICICIBANK.
Nifty is 350 points away from all time high and momentum which is currently in progress has the potential to take Nifty beyond fresh high to 19k level and above – Budget will play the key role whether the rally is fueled to higher level or we formed double top around 18600 level.
Before Budget there is important event – US FOMC meeting on 27-Jan-22 and it will play critical role, even thought Budget & Q3 result are good – steeper rate hike by US FOMC could de-rail the rally in all the assets class fueled by liquidity injection over last 20 months.

Our Approach

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 9-Jan-22

Post author By equichain
Post date January 9, 2022

Indian Market	7-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17812.70	458.65	2.64%
Sensex	59744.65	1490.83	2.56%
Banknifty	37739.60	2257.90	6.36%

Indian Market	7-Jan-22
Other Indices	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	31111.55	668.65	2.20%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	11492.90	203.90	1.81%
India VIX	17.6025	1.38	8.51%

US Market	7-Jan-22
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	36231.66	-106.64	-0.29%
S&P 500	4677.02	-89.16	-1.87%
Nasdaq	14935.90	-709.10	-4.53%

Currency / Commodity	7-Jan-22
Indices	Current
USD/INR	74.3475
EUR/INR	83.9980
Dollar Index	95.735
US 10-year bond	1.765 %
WTI Crude Oil	$ 78.89
Brent Crude Oil	$ 81.78
Gold	$ 1796.25
Bitcoin	$ 41,534

FII / DII Activity	7-Jan-22	Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)	Buy	Sell
FII	1082.83
DII	3293.28

Key Events of this week

Banking stocks rally in first week on 2022: Banknifty gained 6.36% on weekly basis, closed the week nearly 1.5% from this week high. Rally during the week was as high as 8% ahead of result season which starts from 15-Jan-22.
IT stocks took a breather in first week of 2022, as previous 2 week when broader market was underperforming, IT stocks were outperforming.
US FOMC meeting minutes: Discussion of Balance Sheet contraction led to US 10-year bond yield test highest level since January 2021.
FY22 GDP estimate @ 9.2%: GDP estimate declare after market hours was slightly below RBI estimates of 9.5%.
US Jobs data: Unemployment rate came at 3.9% better than estimate of 4.1%. ADP non-farm employment change came better than expected released on Wednesday.
Back to pre-COVID-19 level: In nominal terms, the size of the Indian economy will rise to Rs 232.14 lakh crore at the end of the current fiscal from Rs 197.5 lakh crore a year ago, as per advance estimates. The economy's nominal output was at Rs 203.5 lakh crore as of March 2020, before the pandemic hit.

Market View: Q3 result season begin with 3 IT major coming out with result on 12-Jan-22

TCS, INFY & WIPRO to declare their Q3 result on 12-Jan-22. TCS to consider buy-back proposal along with result on 12-Jan. HCLTECH to come out with Q3 numbers of 14-Jan-22.
Rising COVID-19 cases across the world: India witness sharp increase of COVID-19 infection as 3rd wave has started in India.
Fresh restriction / night curfew / Weekend lockdown / containment zone is the fresh measure taken by state government to control COVID-19, complete lockdown is not the option government is looking for – that is a relief.
HDFCBANK will come out with result on 15-Jan-22, Saturday. Quarterly business updates have been positive declare by HDFC twins, Bajaj finance and few other private banks.

Our Approach – Going into Q3 result & Budget on 1-Feb-22

TCS to declare 4th buy-back in last 5 years, earlier was in 2017, 2018 & 2020. We expected IT stocks to do well going into result and TCS buyback announcement will lead to gap-up opening for IT stocks.
CLSA note on Telecom sector is going to be an interesting theme for 2022. Telecom stocks has broadly underperformed although they manage to catch up post package announce by government in September 2021.
We continue to remain bullish with as we mentioned in our earlier weekly updates 16800 remains key support and only below this level we would review on bullish view. We won’t be surprise if Nifty test new high if rally in Banknifty gets extended with HDFCBANK’s result on 15-Jan-22.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 25-Dec-21

Post author By equichain
Post date December 26, 2021

Indian Market	24-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	17003.75	18.55	0.11%
Sensex	57124.31	112.57	0.20%
Banknifty	34857.05	-761.60	-2.14%

Indian Market	24-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	29612.85	-326.45	-1.09%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	10849.40	-0.15	0.00%
India VIX	16.15	-0.19	-1.16%

US Market	24-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	35950.56	585.12	1.65%
S&P 500	4725.78	105.14	2.28%
Nasdaq	15653.40	483.70	3.19%

Key Events of last week

Nifty & BSE Sensex ended the week flat, Banknifty was down 2 % as Banking and financials underperform. Nifty tested 16410 level just short of 200-DMA & Banknifty trading below 200-DMA @ 35723.
Started the week on weak note as Indices tested fresh 3 months low on OMICRON fear. FII continues to it sell – so for FII sold 33276 crores in December and 98749 crores from 1-Oct-21 to 24-Dec-21.
Post Accenture result – IT stocks are trading near fresh high and few Mid-Cap IT stocks have managed to cross previous high and made fresh 52 week high.
PM Narendra Modi reviewed OMICRON situation in Indian and warned states. Experts believe cases could rise speedily in January 2022.
US Market near it recent high despite US Fed increase pace of tapering and high inflation may lead to a rate hike as early as March 2022.

Market View & Key factors - last week of 2021

FII continues to drag market down, DII countering with buy figure for December 2021 is now at 26957 crores.
With last trading week for 2021, we expect FII selling to exhaust and this could be big relief rally going into Q3 result season & Union Budget on 1-Feb-21.
OMICRON spread across US, UK and other European countries remains key concern in near term.
Indices have corrected around 10 percent from recent high & Banknifty have corrected around 18 percent from high made in October 2021 post ICICIBANK’s result.
We believe Mid-Cap & Small-Cap are at attractive valuation and are positioned for a pre-Budget rally and we are positioned accordingly. We may review our stance if 20-Dec-21 lows are broken again.

Approach & View on Concept

Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 18-Dec-21

Post author By equichain
Post date December 20, 2021

Indian Market	17-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty	16985.20	-526.10	-3.00%
Sensex	57011.74	-1774.93	-3.02%
Banknifty	35618.65	-1487.00	-4.01%

Indian Market	17-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 100	29939.30	-1263.75	-4.05%
Nifty Small-Cap 100	10849.55	-401.65	-3.57%
India VIX	16.34	0.28	1.74%

US Market	17-Dec-21
Weekly Change	Close	Change	% chg
Dow 30	35365.44	-605.55	-1.68%
S&P 500	4620.64	-91.38	-1.94%
Nasdaq	15169.70	-460.90	-2.95%

Key Events of last week

US FOMC Meeting: 15-Dec-21: Increase tapering to $30 billion per month. Expect tapering to complete by March 2022.
ECB Meeting outcome: Kept rate unchanged. Bank of England: Increase rate by 0.15% to 0.25%.
Indian market down on weekly basis. Nifty & BSE Sensex down by 3% and Banknifty was down by 4%.
All eyes were on US Fed at beginning of week, US Fed outcome was in-line with expectation.
Britain recorded more than 88000 fresh cases of COVID-19, highest number of OMICRON cases outside Africa.
Friday recoded weak day across the globe for all asset class as Dollar Index near 14 months high of 96.645. WTI Crude Oil near $70 & Brent Crude Oil around $73.
Banknifty & Financial remain weak on fear of rising interest rate & Global risk-off.
Friday’s fall on Banknifty which is below 200-DMA, getting weak technically.

Market View & Key factors - for last 2 weeks of 2021

FII selling for 1st half of December is at 26,687 crores, with FII sell numbers for October & November are 25572 crores & 39901 crores respectively.
FII Sell figure starting from October till 17-Dec-21 is 92,160 crores. FII activity will play important role in last 10 trading days of 2021 & 9 trading days for F&O expiry for December series.
DII buying has been successfully countered FII Selling but in last 2 weeks, Indices which made high in 2nd half of October, where Nifty & BSE Sensex corrected by more than 8% and Banknifty corrected around 12% from high.
Based of potential positive and negative factors mentioned below: we believe – if FII selling pressure continue and Indices correct 4 – 5 percent from Friday 17-Dec-21 closing – it could provide good bargain buying opportunity. Market technically is weak as Banknifty closed below its 200-DMA & Nifty 200-DMA comes at 16244.