Category: Weekly Reports

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Weekly Reports

16-Jul-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review: Nifty manage to hold on to support level of 15970 level and holding on to critical support level at 15779.  Rally on late Friday manage to cut losses on weekly basis, still major indices ended with just around % cut.

US economic data continue to have its impact on global market.  US CPI & Core CPI came at fresh 4-decade high, raising expectation of 100 bps rate hike in upcoming 27-Jul-22 meeting.  US Fed members, however played down fear of 100 bps rate hike, but 75 bps rate hike is now almost factored in.

Approach on Technical: Nifty break above 16255 & Banknifty break above 35543 could open significant upside.

Keeping in view trend in last 2-week, market retraced / consolidated from a rally in 1st week of July.  This week again we expect Indices to trade on Nifty in range of 15800 – 16255 & Banknifty in range of 34021 – 35543.  

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9-Jul-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

As we have mentioned in our market view last week: we would like to focus on Banking and IT stocks, Banknifty was up 4.72% this week compared to Nifty @ 2.97%.

Interesting part to watch out this week was VIX @ 18.40, significantly cooled-off and now trading below 20 level.  This week, economic data from US and corporate earnings have just begin and next week will be important.  TCS Q1FY23 result may lead to some disappointment in IT stocks on Monday.  US jobs data released on Thursday & Friday was strong.

Approach on Technical: Looking at gap between RSI & RSI average of Nifty & Banknifty, Significant cool-off in VIX, we expect this week to be trading in narrow range with 16000 – 16300 on Nifty & on Banknifty range could be 34200 – 35500.

Fundamental Insight

This week important US data and Indian CPI, IIP & WPI data will be released.  Monday will start with reaction on TCS result.  Last week rally looks a bit stretched and we may see some cool-off and inflation could provide much needed reason for any directional move.

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2-Jul-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

In our last week, we did mention Nifty support level at 15563 and resistance level and expected target at 16178.  Nifty took support around 15563 on Friday but failed to achieve upper end of the target despite good start to week on back of positive global cues on last Friday.

We will prefer to wait for clear direction rather than making assumption.   VIX @ 21.25 continues to trade in range of 20 – 22, also indicates mix view of confused stage ahead of quarterly result season to begin from this week.

Technical are showing mix signal, now news flow & economic data will start coming from this week 4-Jul-22 to 8-Jul-22.  US Market will remain close on 4-Jul-22 on their Independence Day.

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25-Jun-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our last weekly update, we expected technical bounce from lower level, provided the levels on Nifty @ 15151 & Banknifty @ 32366 are not broken.

Auto stocks outperformed as metal prices continue to decline.  US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony to US Senate and banking committee on 22- 23 June 2022, reiterated its stance to continue to focus to tame inflation even at the cost of growth.  Jerome Powell also said with current steps recession looks inevitable.   SGX Nifty @ 15859 up 158 points from Friday’s closing.

Approach on Technical: Currently we have considered correction from 16793 to 15183 and level mention are retracement @ 38.2% & 61.8% retracement level on Nifty & Banknifty.

Fundamental Insight

Accenture Plc result on 23-Jun-22 was strong with strong order book.  Although stocks are trading around 35% from its recent 52-week high.  Indian IT companies are also trading around 30% – 50% from their respective 52 week high.  

We see strong possibility of technical bounce in next week and it could also get followed in first week on July ahead of next quarterly result season begins.

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4-Jun-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our Daily / Weekly view we did mention of Nifty likely to test 16752 level, tested yesterday.  Banknifty underperform this week, an outperformance would have taken Banknifty to 36718 level which remains our target.

US Market after around 6% rally in previous week, this week ended with cut of around 1%.  US market – focus continues around US FOMC meeting outcome and economic data.

RBI focus will also remain to keep 10-year G-Sec at manageable level as Government borrowing may increase by 1 lakh crores more due to announce in Petrol & Diesel excise cut.

For short term: Play via hedge position & in equity market – prefer to buy as per conviction in case of huge fall this week with medium to long term view.  Market may give healthy bounce back.  For sustainable bounce – Central Banks events this week – RBI MPC & ECB need to be turned out be positive.  Going into event with positive view and aggressive long after confirmation from event outcome.

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4-Jun-22 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf

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28-May-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Nifty ended volatile session with minor gain of 0.53% on Nifty, 1.03% gain on BSE Sensex & Banknifty gained 3.90% on weekly basis.

We would like to highlight focus on Mid-Cap 100 which ended -0.77% & Small-Cap 100 which was down by 3.42% on weekly basis.  VIX was down 7% at 21.48.  

US market witness major fall in week between 23-Apr-22 to 27-Apr-22, so if compared US market from 20-Apr-22, US indices are still down by 5.4% to 9.83% on Nasdaq mentioned below.  Please find change compared 27-May to 29-Apr & 20-Apr-22.

We change our approach to “Play for June – Technical bounce” before market do a reality check in Q1FY23 result season which starts from 1st or 2nd week on July.  We may review our view in case recent lows around 15780 are tested and sudden change in narrative as we witness this week.

Key events this month to watch out for will be Central banks meeting which we expect would like to avoid recession and allow higher inflation for some more time before they move towards tight monitory policy.

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21-May-22 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Indices witness highly volatile week in recent times, but most of the volatility was in range of 15750 – 16400.  Indices have gained on weekly basis around 3% – 4% and VIX was down 1.66% but continues to trade at 23.10, which is above comfort level of 20.

Daily volatility of 400 points on Nifty was 3 out of 5 trading days.  It is not a normal scenario and technical indicators change too fast and at times be misguiding.

Increase in VIX above 25 – indicates fear and that would normally come in a falling market.  

We are entering very critical week & final F&O expiry for May 2022 series this week.  

Probable Negative play: Nifty below 15782 & VIX above 25

Probable Positive play: Nifty above 16362 & VIX below 20

Result season in India will conclude by 30-May-22, most of companies have declare their Q4FY22 result.  So far major trend has been “Sell-on-Rise” and this may soon change to “Accumulate Gradually” level.  

Why market was volatile this week?

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14-May-22 – Fundamental & Technical Insight

Indices were more around 4% on weekly basis.  Mid-Cap 100 was down 5.24% & Small-Cap 100 down by 7.98%.  VIX @ 23.48 remains above comfortable level.  2nd half selling on Friday – Nifty closed below 16000 level and near lows made in 7 – 8 March 2022

Based on our view on chart, we have a mix view on market.  So how we will approach market – In case VIX goes above 25 – we would prefer to play for lower level of 15300 & 14800 level.  On the other hand, if VIX stays below 25 & Nifty approaches above 16000 level – we would prefer to play for short -covering.

For short term: Play via hedge position & in equity market – prefer to buy as per conviction in case of huge fall this week with medium to long term view.  


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7-May-22 Fundamental and Technical Insight

This week was an eventful, US FOMC & BOE meeting was scheduled and RBI MPC’s surprise meeting on 4-May-22.  Reliance came out with numbers on Friday evening which will react to it on Monday.

Next week could give a surprise short covering bounce, only to move lower again.  This view may not happen in a week and this week we may remain or close in a green.  Broader trend remains downward.

This week could provide much needed short covering bounce and we believe to follow capital allocation strategy.  Bring cash level anywhere between 20% – 50% as per conviction.  By the end of May month or 1st half of June – Indices could be trading at lower level from Friday’s closing.

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Weekly Report 26-Mar-22

Indian Market25-Mar-22
Weekly ChangeCloseChange% chg
Nifty17153.00-134.05-0.78%
Sensex57362.20-501.730.87%
Banknifty35410.10-1018.45-2.80%
Indian Market25-Mar-22
Other IndicesCloseChange% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 10029274.55296.651.02%
Nifty Small-Cap 10010304.4525.400.25%
India VIX23.430.823.63%
US Market25-Mar-22
Weekly ChangeCloseChange% chg
Dow 3034861.24111.880.32%
S&P 5004543.0479.951.79%
Nasdaq14169.30275.461.98%
Currency / Commodity25-Mar-22
IndicesCurrent
USD/INR76.1950
EUR/INR83.9560
Dollar Index98.843
US 10-year bond2.488 %
WTI Crude Oil$ 112.58
Brent Crude Oil$ 117.34
Gold$ 1957.75
Bitcoin$ 44,535
FII / DII Activity25-Mar-22Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)BuySell
FII-5344.39
DII2820.72

Technical Insight

  • Nifty remain range of 17006 – 17442. Nifty took support at 200-DMA on Tuesday and manage to hold to this level, Friday’s session was weak until last hour short covering rally.
  • Nifty 200-DMA @ 17036 will continue to act as important support level and 20-DMA comes at 16717. This week high of 17442 would act is important resistance level going into final F&O expiry.
  • Looking at Nifty's chart – we would remain cautious with and expect 200-DMA to broken next week and 20-DMA could be tested around 16717 level. Trendline support is expected around 16400 level.
  • Banknifty faces resistance at 200-DMA @ 36706, was able to cross intraday but closing was below 200-DMA.
  • Banknifty on Friday took support at 20-DMA @ 35170, made low of 35203 on Friday, remain critical going into final F&O expiry week.
  • Gap between 20-DMA & 200-DMA comes around 1500 points, chart indicates bearish formation and would prefer to go short once 20-DMA on Banknifty is broken.

Fundamental Insight

  • Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. US has put further sanctions on Russian law maker and corporates. Russia continues to remain major energy partner for Europe as supply of Natural gas and Crude Oil continues, latest news is US & EU strike LNG deal as Europe seeks to cut dependence on Russian gas.
  • Year end factors keeps downside in market limited, this week ended flat in a volatile trade. Mid-Cap & Small-Cap seen reviewed interest and we see it as year end factor which may continue going into result season.
  • Domestic fuel prices increase 4 times this week as international crude oil prices are back above $110.
  • FII selling pressure has reduced and we believe Indian market remain hostile to FII selling and continue to trade in volatile range going into final F&O expiry.
  • IT stocks bounce back from lows and few names are within 5% of its recent high and companies like TATAELXSI are trading at fresh 52 week high.
  • Russia-Ukraine crisis enters 5th week, Russia started its military operations on 24-Feb-22.
  • We continue to maintain our view mention last week. Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.

Market View & Strategy

  • Market had reacted to Russia-Ukraine crisis and as it enter its 5th week, unless major escalation, downside on this news seems to be limited. Indian market going through year-end factor / NAV management keeping Mid-Cap & Small-Cap stocks in focus.
  • Relief rally post US FOMC outcome last week which was followed by volatile session this week, we would prefer to reduce exposure and bet for downward move in final week of F&O expiry and financial year end.
  • In either or case, interest rate is moving higher and US Fed post its post meeting press conference is not ruling out 50 bps rate hike in May 2022 US FOMC meeting. US Fed has already guided for announcement on Balance sheet downsizing in May 2022 meeting which would remain a big overhand on market.
  • We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.