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Weekly Reports

8-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review:

Going into trade in 3-trading day week & RBI MPC meeting outcome on & weekly options expiry on 6-Apr-23, we had positive view on market.  Market this week ended with around 1% – 1.5% gains, which is below our expectation.

Technical Insight

•Nifty previous top @ 17799 could act as resistance level.  Last correction from 17799 to 16828, Nifty closing above 17428 which is 61.8% retracement level could be considered as positive sign.
• Banknifty on Thursday face resistance around downward trendline at 41275, Banknifty is very close to 41625 level, once this level is crossed Banknifty could counter downward trend.

Approach on Technical: In last two weeks, Nifty gained 3.86% & Banknifty gained 4.18% compared to close of 24-Mar-23.  If we considered correction in downward trend, both indices are trading above its 61.8% retracement level of last fall.  

Nifty @ 17199 & Banknifty @ 39763 could now act as key support level if Indices are in uptrend.  We would consider Nifty around 17428 & Banknifty around 40500 as fresh entry level.

Fundamental Insight

1) Direct Tax Collections Meet Revised Target For FY23 At Rs 16.61 Lakh Crore
2) PNG, CNG Prices Set To Fall As India Links Domestic Gas Prices To Crude Basket

Market View & Strategy

Next week will be also 4-trading day week as 14-Apr-23 will be holiday due to Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti.  TCS will declare result on 12-Apr, followed by INFY on 13-Apr-23, likely after market hours.  Major set of US Economic data are due to be released next week, CPI Inflation data, FOMC meeting minutes, PPI data & Retails sales data. 

We will try and combine technical, incoming US Economic data and IT sectors result and if Indices manage to cross on Nifty above 17799 & Banknifty above 41625 it will open further upside to the tune of 2% – 4% by end of April.

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1-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

No fresh bad news this week was good news for market as clam returns in global market.  We did maintain Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37387 could be bargain buying level, but Indices bounced back without testing this level.  Nifty above 17202 & Banknifty above 40201 has witness sharp rally on Friday.

Technical Insight

• Nifty correction from 17799 to 16828 – next resistance / target level comes at 17428 (61.8% retracement) & 17799 (100% retracement ) level.  Nifty @ 17199 & 16981 could act as support level.
• Banknifty @ 39781 could act as strong support level.  Banknifty could test 41400 – 41700 range on upper end this week.

On upper end Nifty could test 17799 and Banknifty could test 41671 level this week and would act as strong resistance level.  Nifty range 17201 – 17799 & Banknifty range 39781 – 41671 for 3-trading day week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Government To Borrow Rs 8.88 Lakh Crore In First Half Of FY24
2) India’s Eight Core Industries Grow 6% In February, The Slowest In Three Months
3) India’s Current Account Deficit Narrows To 2.2% Of GDP In Q3 FY23
4) Government Exceeds FY23 RE Target Of Combined Disinvestment, Dividend Mop Up
5) Government Announces Small Savings Interest Rate Hike For First Quarter Of New Fiscal
6) Fiscal Deficit Till February At 83% Of Full-Year Target

Market View & Strategy

Global interest rate has been increased since March 2022 and this rate hike cycle is one of the steepest paces of hike, but now there are enough indicator to believe that we are near to end and global central banks has refused to comment on future rate hike, keeps door open for pause or pivot.  Any official confirmation of pause or pivot will be bullish for risk-on sentiment.

Going into trade for 3-Apr-23 to 6-Apr-23, 3-trading day week with RBI MPC meeting outcome on 6-Apr-23, we expect high volatility with positive bias.  We maintain positive view on market with expectation of Indices to test upper end of the range mentioned in technical view ahead of quarterly earning season which could begin from 2nd week of April 2023.


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25-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, global central banks announced coordinated action to provide liquidity and stability to banking system before Asian market opened on Monday morning.  Market continue to trade in narrow range with weekly move in range of 2.5% – 3%.

Approach on Technical: Indices continue to trade in narrow range on back on weak news flow from global banks impacted sentiment globally.  In our 11-Mar-23, we mentioned that at time when news flow drives the market technical may take a back seat.

Nifty above 17210 & Banknifty above 40200 could open fresh upside and Nifty below 16825 & Banknifty below 39050 could trigger further downside.  We believe Nifty @ 16669 / 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386 are bargain buying level and turn cautious once VIX goes above 16.

Fundamental Insight

1) Union finance budget for 2023 – 24 / Finance bill passed with 64 amendments
2) Forex Reserves Rise At The Fastest Pace In Four Months
3) RBI fortnightly bulletin – for 24-Feb-23 to 10-Mar-23

Market View & Strategy

Global news continues to drive market sentiment, banking crisis in US & Europe continue to dampen sentiment while regulator keeps on providing support & confidence to banking system.  Market this week continue to trade in range.  

We continue to maintain our stance of last week, what could be bargain buying level – Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37247 are the level we believe are good bargain buying entry level with positional view.  Any speculative position, we would prefer to have complete hedge position as we anticipate highly eventful next week or 2 weeks going into financial year end.

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18-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Last we have turned cautious as financial crisis triggered by SVB was evolving, last week regulator closed 3 banks – SVB, SILVERGATE BANK & SIGNATURE BANK.  Indian IT & Banks were major looser this week.  We focused on VIX this week, VIX closed above 16 for 3 days this week and we believe its time to remain cautious.

Approach on Technical: last week we did mention that when news flow leads the market movement, technical take back seat.

Nifty @ 16747 / 16669 & Banknifty @ 37386 / 37247 are likely to be tested on lower side and act as important support level.  

Nifty @ 17546 / 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970 could act as resistance this week.  VIX closed below 16 on Friday, however if VIX moves above 16 next week – its time to turn highly cautious and expect sharp fall as we are heading into important week of trade.

Fundamental Insight

Financial crisis continues to US ‘s regional banks – FIRST REPUBLIC BANK and Europe ‘s Credit Suisse banks was supported by Swiss National Bank of 50 billion Swiss Franc.

• Japan Finance Ministry, BOJ Ready To Respond On Bank Sector Woes
• Goldman Raises US Recession Probability To 35% On Banking Stress
• Turmoil Means ECB Will Finally Set Rates One Meeting At A Time

Market View & Strategy

We see financial crisis could have downside in near term as global news could trigger panic selling in near term.  During next week we could find opportunity to reduce exposure by 5% to 25% based on news flow or could hedge portfolio if find necessary.  

What could be bargain buying level – Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37247 are the level we believe are good bargain buying entry level with positional view.  Any speculative position, we would prefer to have complete hedge position as we anticipate highly eventful next week or 2 weeks going into financial year end.

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18-Mar-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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11-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We went into trade this week with bullish view and preferred to deploy fund fully with a bullish view and if we exclude Friday’s fall which was triggered by SVB financial group turmoil seen on Thursday after its plan to raise emergency capital by $2.25 billion & loss on bond portfolio by $1.8 billion.

Wall Street ended this week with cut of around 4.5% on major indices, out of which major decline was seen on Thursday & Friday as SVB financial group collapse.  

Approach on Technical: market technical are turning weak based on news from global market.  At times when news flow dominate market sentiment technical take a back seat and we believe this time to focus on VIX.  

This week onwards we would focus more on VIX and move on VIX above 16 would turn cautious.  Nifty @ 17255 & Banknifty @ 39600 could act as strong support level, once this level is broken market could see sell-off due to panic selling to news flow from SVB financial group and banking stocks in US & Globally could turn cautious.  

Time to turn cautious & turn extra cautious once VIX cross above 16 level.

Fundamental Insight

• Reserve Bank of Australia increase rate by 25-bps to 4.60% Vs estimate of 4.60% & previous 4.35%.
• Bank of Canada kept key interest rate unchanged at 4.50% Vs estimate of 4.50%.
• US Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies – expect appropriate pace of ongoing rate hike.
• Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 50-bps rate hike at 76% probability.  However by the
Friday’s closing probability of 50-bps rate hike moved down to 40.2%.
• RBI Weekly bulletin: Deposit growth @ 10.1% & Credit growth @ 15.5% as on fortnight ended 24-Feb-23.
• Four largest banks in US: lost $47 billion in collective valuation.

Market View & Strategy

We have been fully invested and deployed around 95% to 100% fund.  We would reduce exposure as near term market correction could trigger another round of sell-off which could be in range of 3% to 5%.  

Biggest fall bring opportunity for bargain buying, as we seen in past any financial crisis could change the path of central bank’s existing policy which is currently hawkish as recently guided in testimony by US Fed chair Jerome Powell.  

Any reason to be bullish – we believe US Fed would pivot in near term which could change dynamics. 

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11-Mar-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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4-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We have turned cautious going into trade this week and right so as Nifty made fresh low since Hindenburg report on 24-Jan-23 & Budget on 1-Feb-23.  Nifty manage to hold on to 200-DMA & Banknifty manage to hold psychological level of 40000 level.  If we exclude Friday’s gain on Indian indices, most indices would be within 1% gain or loss, Friday’s rally was supported by short covering.

Approach on Technical: Friday’s move was supported by short covering as Nifty & Banknifty manage to hold on to critical support level.  

We believe, that market has formed near term bottom on Nifty @ 17255 & Banknifty @ 39970.  We expect indices to test upper end of the range this week and any consolidation could be utilized to build up long position.

Fundamental Insight

Here are some of the highlights of the eventful week where Indices manage to hold on to lower end of the range and ADANI group stocks rallied improved the sentiment as promoter manage to sell stake.

• India’s GDP Growth Slows To 4.4% In Q3; Pegged At 7% For Full Year
• GDP Growth May Exceed 7% This Fiscal, Says CEA Nageswaran
• Axis Bank Concludes Citi Retail Business Acquisition At Rs 11,603 Crore
• Prices of domestic cooking gas cylinders have been hiked by up to Rs 50 across India with effect from March 1.
• GST Collections In February Dip Below Rs 1.5 Lakh Crore
• Former Supreme Court judge AM Sapre, tasked to oversee a probe into the recent Adani Group share crash and other regulatory aspects for stock markets, panel to submit its report in a sealed cover within two months.
• India’s Forex Reserves Fall $325 Million To $560.94 Billion

Market View & Strategy

We believe market has prices in negative news and downside could be in form of consolidation and in case of any positive trigger we see more upside potential from current level. 

We would add long position on any correction / consolidation and prefer to deploy fully in range of 95% to 100% this week and play long.  We will review our bullish view if Indices go below this week low and any adverse news from two key reason mentioned here, we expect market to consolidate and gradual up move till next corporate earnings season that starts from 2nd week of April 2023.

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4-Mar-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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25-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Last week, we focused on 61.8% retracement level on Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970, Indices tested lower level & on Friday closed below this important support level.  This weekly closing is lowest closing since 24-Jan-23 (Hindenburg report on ADANI group stocks) & Budget on 1-Feb-23.  

Approach on Technical: Nifty & Banknifty closed below 61.8% retracement level and is showing weakness on chart.  Both indices are approaching their respective 200-DMA on Nifty @ 17368 & Banknifty @ 39216.

RSI & RSI average indicate oversold zone.  In case of any sign of trend reversal, short covering rally could bring Nifty up to 18070 & Banknifty cold rally up to 41567 in an optimistic or positive triggers.

Market View & Strategy

What led to correction of around 2% – 3% on Indian & US Indices – strong US Economic data, mainly Core CPI, Core retail sales, Core PPI & Core PCE Price Index which has turned the sentiment towards more tight monitory policy.  

We now would turn cautious and watchful inflation remains key concern and key central banks meeting in March 2023 starts from 10-Mar to 3-Apr 2023 and their focus has shifted to managing inflation.

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18-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices traded in narrow range; one attempt was made to break-out on upside but failed.  Nifty closed above 18000 psychological level 2 days but failed to give convincing break-out.  ADANI group stocks continue to remains in focus but volatility has reduced.

Approach on Technical: Today we are taking broader view on Nifty & Banknifty chart when major uptrend started from September 2022 end till mid of December 2022.

We would assume that Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970 are 61.8% retracement level of rally on Nifty from 16747 to 18887 & Banknifty rally from 37386 to 44151.  Indices are in consolidation zone and we see potential of fresh uptrend till 61.8% retracement levels hold.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Forex Reserves Drop The Most In Over 10 Months To $567 Billion
2) Budget 2023 To Boost India Growth To 7% In FY24: RBI Bulletin

The tax changes proposed in the budget will put at least Rs 35,000 crore in the hands of households, the central bank said. The implications of these three aspects on the outlook for growth are profound.

Market View & Strategy

As result season Q3FY23 ends, there is no major positive or negative surprise.  Currently what we could term as potential positive triggers are 1) Budget – Pro-growth, 2) Global energy prices are coming down, 3) Real interest rate in India remains positive, that is Repo rate – inflation. 

We have continued to remain bullish and would continue to increase exposure around 90% to 95% level in our long only concept as we would bet on rally from current level.


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18-Feb-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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11-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

As expected, volatility reduced significantly compared to last week which was highly eventful due to budget and central bank’s meeting.  RBI MPC increase rate by 25-bps by 4-2 count, 2 members in favour of less or no rate hike.  ADANI group stocks continue to remain volatile as MSCI reduce weightage on 4 ADANI group stocks.

Approach on Technical: Indices this week has been trading around 20-DMA and narrow range, we expect clear trend in next week.

Nifty above 17897 & Banknifty above 41999 could open upside on Nifty to 18201 & Banknifty could test 43078.  Indices could see major downside risk only if Nifty breaks 17593 & Banknifty below 40861.  Our strategy would be play on long side above Nifty @ 17897 & Banknifty above 41999 break-out convincingly. 

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI MPC hikes rate by 25-bps – Decision by 4 – 2 in favour of rate hike
2) IIP: India’s Industrial Output Expands 4.3% In December
3) India’s Forex Reserve Drops $1.49 Billion To $575.27 Billion
4) MSCI Changes Free Float Of Four Adani Companies

Market View & Strategy

We would continue to follow strategy to keep exposure around 65 – 75% and would do further allocation in coming weeks on positive sign.  Currently market is trading in narrow range where fresh cues will be critical to provide positive or negative trigger.  This week would focus on US economic data which are trending downwards.

Union finance budget is positive for market, but sentiment was turned negative due to ADANI group stocks and global uncertainty.  We do not expect any major directional move on either side as quarterly result are in-line with no major surprise.  We would wait for upcoming data to continue to remain optimistic.

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4-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review:

This week was highly volatile and eventful, Union finance Budget on 1-Feb-23 was continuation of capex budget – a strategy followed by Government of Indian since COVID budget which started with stimulus package post COVID and expansionist since 1-Feb-21 Budget.  

Approach on Technical: We believe, technical levels do tend to go beyond chart, support and resistance level.  

VIX @ 14.40: We see volatility to reduce substantiality in coming weeks as scheduled event such as Budget, US Fed, BOE & ECB meeting are over & RBI MPC meeting on 8-Feb-23 is awaited.  Nifty range for this week seen @ 17580 to 18041 & Banknifty range seen 41024 to 42200.

Market View & Strategy

All key events, Union Budget, US Fed, BOE & ECB meeting were positive for market.  RBI MPC policy meeting on 8-Feb-23, we expect first status quo or unchanged in policy by RBI MPC, and expected to be positive for market.  ADANI news will continue to drive the market sentiment, but we feel this news have mostly played on.

We would be positioning ourselves with a cautious view and uncertainty and the main reason for this is that there is no substantial trigger for upside.  We have positive view on budget but in near term or for the month of February, we see upside limited and downside risk in case of any news flow. 


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