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Weekly Reports

24-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, trend remain mix as indices was trading near its recent highs, BSE Sensex made fresh and manage to cross December 2022 high while Nifty is yet to make fresh lift-time high.  Market witness profit booking and selling pressure from higher level, Mid-cap & Small-cap were looser on weekly basis after 12 weeks of continuous gains.

Technical Insight

 Nifty RSI @ 54.84 & RSI average @ 62.25, Nifty RSI indicating negative trend in near term with 18567 as first support level & 18374 as intermediate support level.  

• Banknifty RSI @ 47.92 & RSI average @ 51.38.  Banknifty is trading below its 20-DMA @ 43956 which is now acting as resistance level.

Approach on Technical: Indices are currently trading near upper-end of the range and facing supply ahead of F&O expiry next week for June 2023 series.  

Nifty below 18567 & Banknifty below 43314 could open further downside which could test lower level on Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 42493.  This week could turn out to be broader correction, while uptrend would resume in case of Nifty manages to move above 18807 & Banknifty above 44046.

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI Nowcasting Model Pegs Q1 FY24 GDP Growth At 7.9%
2) MPC Minutes: Job to Contain Inflation Only Half-Done, Says RBI Governor
3) EPFO Adds 17.20 Lakh Net Members In April: Labour Ministry

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

We believe it’s time to book profit and reduce exposure, with Q1FY24 result season to begin from 2nd week of July, market will focus on final F&O expiry and global cues.  We have reduced our exposure around 75%, but will continue to maintain allocation around 70% on lower side and 85% on higher side.  

Going into final F&O expiry for June series, we expect market to correct / consolidate at lower level which could provide fresh entry opportunity.

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17-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We went into trade in this week expecting momentum build-up as there was US Fed, ECB & BOJ central bank’s meeting.  After RBI’s meeting last week, indices failed to gained momentum as supply seen from higher level.  Mid-cap & Small-cap continues its upward momentum as defense stocks rallies. 

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.18 & RSI average @ 64.90.  Nifty after consolidation this week continues its upward momentum with highest closing at 18826.
• Banknifty RSI @ 53.53 & RSI average @ 54.94.  Banknifty is currently underperforming Nifty.  Last week RBI meeting & this week, US Fed, ECB & BOJ continues to weight on Banknifty.

Going into trade this week, Nifty support level @ 18503 & Banknifty support level at 43552 will re critical.  Indices continue to indicate mix view with upside target on Nifty @ 18965 & Banknifty @ 44959.  As we have seen in last 2 weeks, indices remain in narrow range, we could again see this week indices trade in narrow range, we would be watching VIX closely for any change in view on increase in volatility.


Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Trade Deficit Widens To $22.1 Billion In May
2) Government Lines Up Two Tranches Of Sovereign Gold Bonds In First Half Of FY24
3) Housing Prices Rise in Top Indian Cities, Delhi Sees Highest Spike

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

Major events such as RBI MPC meeting in previous week, US Fed, ECB & BOJ meeting outcome concluded in week just concluded, outcome was mostly in-line with market expectation.  Globally market is trading near their respective high, marking 2023 with positive return after flat or negative 2022.  

Our strategy this week to remain invested around 80% – 85% and any rally to be used to reduce exposure and fresh deployment of fund to be done on major correction.  Meanwhile if market continue to trade in range, stock rotation with limit of 85% could be preferred.

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10-Jun-23 Technical & Fundalmental Insight

Last week – review

Indices remain flat for this week after less volatile session in narrow range, we expected indices to given clear directional move, but failed.  RBI MPC kept repo rate unchanged at 6.50% and maintain its stance as “Withdrawal of Accommodation”.  Reaction to monitory policy & post policy press conference was weak and Banknifty corrected on Thursday.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 59.85 & RSI average @ 64.65.  RSI after testing 70 level this week again turned negative, Nifty immediate support at 18508 & 18458 would be important resistance comes at 18777.

• Banknifty RSI @ 56.23 & RSI average @ 59.65.  Banknifty trade in very narrow range in this week where RBI MPC event was there.

Approach on Technical: Indices failed to build on momentum could be considered as negative in near term.  RSI & RSI average on Nifty & Banknifty indicates further consolidation.

Nifty below 18458 & Banknifty below 43552 – needs to be turn cautious.  Indices continue to trade near its lifetime high, could expect another round of up move if supported by momentum.  Nifty above 18666 & Banknifty above 44360 could open upside up to Nifty @ 18965 & Banknifty @ 44959.

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI MPC Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged; Inflation Still Above Target, Says Das
2) RBI Monetary Policy: Banking System Liquidity Appears To Be Skewed, Says RBI Governor
3) Southwest Monsoon Arrives In Kerala: IMD
4) World Bank Trims India’s GDP Growth Forecast To 6.3% In FY24
5) India Likely To Stick To The Market Borrowing Plan For FY24

Equichain Wealth Advisors – Market View & Strategy

Last weeks narrow movement has turned as cautious again, however we continue to remain positive on market going into US Fed meeting on 14-Jun-23, ECB meeting on 15-Jun-23 & BOJ meeting on 16-Jun-23.  

Our strategy this week is to wait for better clarity as we expect increase in volatility ahead of event and on reaction to event.  US Fed is expected to pause, post meeting press conference will be key.

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3-Jun-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices on weekly basis closed flat and traded in narrow range, momentum seen in Mid-cap & small-cap and ended the week with minor gains.  We went into trade with a view that any rally to be utilized for reducing the exposure and incase of any correction will deploy fund which is currently available.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 63.88 & RSI average @ 64.87.  Nifty extension of rally from 17553 to 18458 & retracement to 18060 – extension of rally to test 18619 & 18965.
• Banknifty RSI @57.72 & RSI average @ 61.88.  Banknifty closing at 43937 on Friday around 44018 – previous Friday’s level.

Approach on Technical: We will start our view on technical based on indicative opening of SGX which will be around 80 – 100 points higher compared to Friday’s closing.

Nifty @ 18458 & Banknifty @ 43552 will act as support level for uptrend to remain positive, Indices are heading higher on Nifty towards 18965 & Banknifty towards 44959.  

Fundamental Insight

1) GST Collections Grow 12% To Rs 1.57 Lakh Crore in May
2) Forex Reserves Decline for Second Week To $589.14 Billion
3) India’s GDP Grows Faster Than Expected At 6.1% In Q4, 7.2% In FY23
4) India Restricts Fiscal Deficit to Targeted 6.4% Of GDP In FY23
5) Bank Credit to Industry Decelerates in April to 7%: Reserve Bank Of India
6) Core Sector Growth Flat in April

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

RBI MPC meeting on 8-Jun-23, with previous inflation data well below 6% and within comfortable range, market participant expected to announce pause and maintain its stance – “Withdrawal of accommodation”.  RBI may change norms for CRR which could be beneficial for Banks, we expect banks to have another round of rally.

Going into trade this week, we remain positive and expecting momentum to accelerate supported by pause in interest rate by RBI on 8-Jun-23 & US Fed on 14-Jun-23.   We will position our self with bullish view and may deploy fund fully before event or post event.  We expect huge market swings with a positive bias as Nifty may soon test new life time high and Banknifty toward 45000 level.

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27-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical view we have mentioned our expected target of 18499 which was achieved and Banknifty fell short of our target of Banknifty testing fresh high.  Indices manage to hold on to Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181, so we have maintained our bullish view.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.49 & RSI average @ 63.38.  Nifty closing @ 18499 is almost at upper end of the range 18458 / 18498.  Nifty closing above 18499 for next 2 trading session can be considered as positive.

• Banknifty RSI @ 64.20 & RSI average @ 63.77.  Banknifty underperformed this week and it trading below 44151 its recent top made on 15-May-23.

Approach on Technical: Nifty has outperformed this week closing above 18458 level – recent top.  Banknifty underperformed and closed below 44151.

Going into trade on Monday SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening of around 100 points, Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 – Friday’s closing to be considered as near-term support level for any long position for next week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Services Sector To Drive GDP Growth To 4.9% In Q4 FY23: ICRA
2) IMD Retains Forecast Of A ‘Normal’ Monsoon In 2023
3) FDI Declines 16% In FY23, First Year-On-Year Contraction In Decade
4) RBI Governor Das Says Won’t Be Surprised If India’s FY23 GDP Growth Exceeds 7%
5) Forex Reserves Drop By $6 Billion To $593.5 Billion

Equichain Wealth – Market View & Strategy

Technically, indices have closed at a level which can be considered as double top and fresh strength from current level could well open upside by next 2% – 3% on indices in next week.  As U.S. debt ceiling limit likely to hit by 1st week of June, any disappointing news or failure to finalize debt ceiling deal, market could react sharply lower.  We also see probability of profit booking even though deal gets through.  

Going into trade this week, we have been invested around 85% in our portfolio and we would prefer to reduce exposure by 5% – 10% on rally and deploy fresh fund only on major decline.  If next week market momentum remains positive with positive news flow, we believe market would provide opportunity for stock rotation within portfolio while keeping investment at same level.  In F&O segment we may prefer to go long with hedge position as we expect increase in volatility in next week.

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20-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our last week, we expected range bound movement and our strategy would be to deploy fund on correction and reduce exposure in case of further rally.  Indices this week traded in narrow range and weekly change this week was withing 1% or -1%.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 58.85 & RSI average @ 62.99.  Last up move on Nifty from 17553 to 18458 – almost 1000 points without any major correction.  Nifty corrected up to 18113 which is 38.2% retracement level.

• Banknifty RSI @ 66.38 & RSI average @ 66.26.  Banknifty last up move from 42582 to 44151 completes double formation requirement of previous top on Banknifty made in Dec-22.

Approach on Technical: Nifty & Banknifty do indicate opposite view.  Nifty do indicate range bound move expected with negative bias.  Banknifty on the other hand shows strength which could see further build-up.

Our strategy based on technical chart would to turn cautious only after Nifty closed below 18131 & Banknifty below 43181.  Indices likely to see selling pressure on rally as Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty above 44151 could test 44624.  Base case assumption for this week would be – Indices likely to test upper end and could see supply at higher level.

Fundamental Insight

1) Rs 2,000 Currency Notes Withdrawn from Circulation, Can Be Exchanged Till Sept. 30
2) Forex Reserves Jump $3.5 Billion To $599.53 Billion
3) RBI To Transfer Rs 87,416 Crore Surplus To Government For FY23
4) S&P Global Reaffirms India’s Sovereign Credit Rating At ‘BBB;’ Outlook Stable

Market View & Strategy

Global market will continue to focus on U.S. debt ceiling talks as deadline is near, latest news from U.S. is that there is no progress on debt ceiling talks.  Crisis in U.S. regional banks remain key concern as interest rate remain high.

We are currently invested around 85% and any rally in market could be utilized for reduction.  We would wait for healthy correction before we may deploy fresh fund on correction / consolidation.  Nifty below 18113 & Banknifty below 43151 could trigger further correction.

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13-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Last week, major fall came on Friday on news of HDFC & HDFCBANK leading the fall.  This week’s rally is almost same as last Friday’s fall.  Indices took support at lower level and face supplied at higher level as market continues to trade in range.  Corporate earnings continue to drive market and will continue to do so.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 68.99 & RSI average @ 68.09.  Nifty range of 18137 to 18498 remain very important.  Nifty RSI trading near 70 level which is considered as over-bought zone.

• Banknifty closed at 43793 above last Thursday’s day high of 43739 can be considered as fresh break-out.  Banknifty around 43125 level now remains important support level.

Approach on Technical: Indices are showing some sign of distribution at higher level.  Indices had rallied of more than 7% – 9% on Nifty & Banknifty without any major correction.  

Nifty @ 18137 & Banknifty @ 42685 are important support level we are looking for, Indices after consolidation this week may continue its towards its target of Nifty @ 18498 & Banknifty towards 44020 & 44151.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s CPI Inflation Falls To 18-Month Low In April
2) IIP: India’s Industrial Output Grew 1.1% In March
3) India’s Forex Reserves Jump By $7.2 Billion To Nearly $596 Billion

Market View & Strategy

KARNATAKA election result will impact Monday’s opening, global cues continue to keep market on edge.  India’s CPI inflation data came at 4.7% will be positive whereas IIP data showing growth concern will be negative for market sentiment.

Our strategy this week would be to continue to focus on booking profit on market rally & stock rotation.  We would prefer to deploy fund only in case of there is major correction.  We are worried about global cues could bring correction and increase in volatility which could trigger correction in Indian market as well.

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6-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

After F&O expiry for April series and first trading day of May-23 F&O series start with major rally, Indices this week had flat closing.  Indian market had flat closing on weekly basis, Banknifty ended week with cut of 1.32% while Mid-cap & Small-cap outperformed broader market.  Corporate earnings continue to dominate the sentiment as 2/3 earnings season is completed.

Technical Insight

• Nifty @ 17669 will act support level and Nifty above 18138 could test 18499 & 18860 level.  With RSI correcting for 70 level expected to consolidate next week.

• Banknifty RSI @ 57.95 & RSI average @ 70.19.  Previous day RSI @77.98 & RSI average @ 73.25.  From overbought to oversold zone in 1 trading day.  This indicates probability of high volatility in next week.

Approach on Technical: In last few weeks, market momentum was very strong and indices rallied without any major correction.

Nifty @ 17994 & 17669 could act as support level and prospective level for fresh entry, where as this week Nifty could face resistance @ 18138 & 18255.  Banknifty range for this week seen at 42685 – 44020 with a positive bias.  Banknifty sharp fall on Friday due to HDFCBANK seen to be overdone in near term.  Banknifty below 42685 could open further down side and on negative trigger.

Fundamental Insight

1) India Benchmark Yield Dips To 7.02%, Further Softening Expected in Near-Term: Experts
2) India’s Forex Reserves Rise By $4.53 Billion To Reach $588.78 Billion
3) GST Revenue Collection for April Highest Ever at Rs 1.87 Lakh Crore

Market View & Strategy

This week key event was US Fed meeting, Fed raised rates by 25-bps and hinted for pause on further rate hike as banking crisis with small & regional bank continues.

We would focus on Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 with stocks specific view and stocks which has so far underperformed broader market but has potential for catch-up rally.  Most of PSU are yet to declare result and we would focus with a view on dividend.


This week our strategy would to focus on stock rotation, to book profit partly or fully and move towards PSU where there is potential for dividend play as companies will announce annual result and AGM would be in focus.  Last few weeks have seen market rally which also makes us believe to keep 15% – 20% fund available on liquid for better opportunity in case of any correction due to any reason.

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22-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical insight we did expect consolidation on indices and move this week was as narrow as it could get.  It continues to remain stocks specific move as we are in result season.  Last week started with reaction on INFY’s weak disappointing result & guidance and positive result from HDFCBANK.

Technical Insight

• Nifty move from 16918 to 17842, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 17489 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 17271.  Nifty above 17842 could indicate fresh break-out and open further upside.

• Banknifty rally from 39273 to 42603, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 41331 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 40545.  Banknifty above 42603 could open upside move towards fresh high of 44151.

Approach on Technical: Last week consolidation should continue next week as we are going into final F&O expiry for April 2023 series with steady technical setup.

Nifty @ 17271 & Banknifty @ 40545 are important level and should hold for uptrend to continue.  Our base view is that indices would take support at 38.2% level and resume uptrend.

Fundamental Insight

1) HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger: RBI Grants No Exemptions On CRR, SLR Requirements
2) RBI Says Probability Of Lower Inflation Rising, Pegs Q4 GDP Growth At 5.4%
3) MPC Minutes: Members Continue To Emphasise On Pause, Not Pivot
4) Reliance Industries Q4 Results: Profit Jumps 19.8% Beating Estimates On Higher Margin
5) ICICI Bank Q4 Results: Net Profit Up 30% YoY

Market View & Strategy

Is this the “calm before the storm” or not is tough to answer but we surely believe that volatility is going to increase in coming weeks as US Fed meeting on 3-May-23 is critical and important event.  

Our strategy this week would be to deploy fund which is currently available, but only if there is some correction and there is clear break-out supported by domestic and global cues.  

Our broad view remains positive and would prefer to have stocks specific approach within basket of stocks within our various. concept list.  Monday’s opening will be guided by RELIANCE & ICICIBANK result and F&O expiry will lead to increase volatility which could provide good reshuffling opportunity.

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15-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our last week review, upper end of target on Nifty was at 17799 & Banknifty at 41625.  Both indices manage to close above this level and major move came on back of US CPI & Core CPI data which came below expectation.  India’s CPI data came at 5.66% for March 2023, at 15-months low and below RBI’s tolerance level of 4% (+/- 2) this is range of 2% – 6%.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 65.90 & RSI average @ 58.07.  Nifty recorded 9 continuous trading days of gains and around 1000 points rally from 16850 to 17840.

• Banknifty RSI @ 68.41 & RSI average @ 58.72.  Banknifty rallied from 39325 to 42132 without any major correction with only 10-Apr-23 ended with minor loss.  Banknifty rallied around 2800 points in 9 sessions

Approach on Technical: As Nifty closed above 17799 & Banknifty above 41625 – we see technical indicators has given fresh positive break-out.  But as Indices have rallied without any major correction or consolidation, any consolidation would be healthy.

Indices has rallied around 5% to 7% from 24-Mar-23 and is now within 5% – 7% of its fresh all-time high.   Technical indicate fresh positive uptrend but we expect correction / consolidation in 17th – 21st April 2023 week.

Fundamental Insight

1) CPI Inflation Falls To 15-Month Low Of 5.66% In March
2) India To See ‘Below-Normal’ Monsoon This Year: Skymet Forecast
3) OPEC+ Output Cut May Lead To Higher Oil Prices, Push Up India’s Import Bill: IEA
4) IMF Cuts India’s GDP Growth Forecast To 5.9% For FY24
5) India’s Forex Reserves Rise By $6.30 Billion To $584.75 Billion

Market View & Strategy

We continue to maintain bullish view and as mentioned last week, we have reduced exposure by 8% – 12% as Indices are near our upper end of the range that is Nifty @ 17799 & Banknifty @ 41625.

Strategy for this week would be to focus on stocks which has so far underperformed and has potential for fresh up move, IT to remain weak as TCS & INFY disappoints.  Banking stocks going into result with positive expectation could witness profit booking.

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