Category: Weekly Reports

Categories
Weekly Reports

9-Mar-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Technical trend turned positive and expected indices to test higher level in 4-day trading week.  Banknifty outperformed this week as ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & SBIN lead the Banknifty rally.  Mid-cap & Small-cap under performed as Small-cap index closed the week with cut of 2%.

Technical Insight

• Nifty range of this week seen at 22334 to 22627 and Nifty above 22627 could provide fresh upside triggers.

• Banknifty range seen at 47206 to 48535.  Banknifty has outperformed this week and outperformance likely to continue.

Approach on Technical: Going into trade next week, GIFT Nifty is indicating gap-up opening of more than 100 points on positive global cues.

Technical trend continues to remain positive and Nifty @ 22627 & Banknifty @ 48161 to act as resistance.  If Indices manage to move above these levels, it could further trigger short covering rally and indices could test higher level in this week on Nifty @ 22921 & Banknifty @ 48535.  

Fundamental Insight

1) Centre Hikes Dearness Allowance To 50% Of Basic Pay For Its Employees
2) Gold Rallies To Record High But May Have Overshot Its Near-Term Upside
3) How Discoms Will Be Hit If They’re To Meet Peak Demand Of 250 GW In April-June
4) Singtel Divests 0.8% Stake In Bharti Airtel For Rs 5,849 Crore

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

Global sentiment is turning positive ahead of next round of central banks meeting which starts with Bank of Japan on 19-Mar-24, U.S. Fed on 20-Mar-24 & Bank of England on 21-Mar-24.  Recent rally in Gold, US 10-year bond yield below 4.10% & Dollar index below 103 – market rally on hope of rate cut by US Fed by in May 2024.  ECB kept interest rate unchanged on 7-Mar-24 and guided for rate cut in June 2024 depending on incoming data.  BOJ is expected to hike rate on 19-Mar-24.

We have maintained our exposure around 65% – 75% and would prefer to increase deployment gradually with stock specific approach.  Market continues its uptrend and momentum could get strong if it is supported by action of central banks which could lead to short covering rally ahead of financial year end.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
9-Mar-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

2-Mar-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices closed mixed this week as Nifty 50, SENSEX & Banknifty ended with around 1% gain, while Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 closed with loss of around 1%.  GDP data released on Thursday after market hours provided much needed rally from lows of the week to record high on major indices.  Mid-cap & Small-cap underperformed this week as SEBI asked for further disclosure and regulation from Mutual fund.

Technical Insight

• Nifty could see fresh upside above 22446.  Nifty range for this week could be 22297 to 22796.  Nifty above 22297 is seen as fresh break-out.

• Banknifty move on Friday can be seen as big positive and now immediate support @ 47052 and trend remains positive till it holds 47052.

Approach on Technical: Friday’s move after strong GDP data on Thursday after market closing has change direction in short term.  Last Wednesday & Thursday market remain under pressure.

Nifty @ 22096 & Banknifty @ 46562 to act as important and decisive support level.  Technical chart has turned positive and could test higher level.  Nifty is expected to test 22446 & 22796.  Banknifty likely to test 47748 & 48636.  We see Friday’s move as big trigger as Nifty 50 index made fresh high and could open further upside.  

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s GDP Grows 8.4% In Q3 Surpassing Estimates; Full-Year Growth Pegged At 7.6%

The gross domestic product grew 8.4% over a year earlier in the October-December quarter, according to the latest estimates released by the government’s statistical agency. Gross value added, which strips out indirect tax and subsidies, is estimated to have grown 6.5%.

2) Fiscal Deficit Widens To 64% Of Revised Estimates till January
3) India’s GST Collection Rises 12.5% To Rs 1.68 Lakh Crore in February
4) Cabinet Nod for Three Semiconductor Units Entailing Rs 1.26 Lakh Crore Investment

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

Nifty closed at fresh 52-week high lead by broad base rally from banking to infrastructure sector.  GST Collection for February came at 1.68 lakh crores, records 12.5% growth compared to previous year while decline compared to previous month’s collection of 1.74 lakh cores.

We see recent development as fresh positive triggers and we may find opportunity to deploy fund available.  In last few weeks, we have been underweighted as we were expecting correction, but market witness sideways correction / consolidation and Friday ‘s rally changed the sentiment.  Q3FY24 GDP number just ahead of election could limit the downside.  Any correction could be seen by market as buying opportunity as strong domestic inflows is now backed by strong economic data

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
2-Mar-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

24-Feb-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Last week market movement were more related to volatility seen during this week but indices continue to trade in narrow range.  Nifty 50 & SENSEX closed at fresh all-time high was market sentiment remain cautious.

Technical Insight

• Nifty this week range seen at 21956 & 22446 with positive trend.  Nifty around 21938 level likely to act as important support level on trend line from October 2023.
• Banknifty this week range seen at 46073 to 47748.  Banknifty @ 46073 to act as important support level and fresh up move can be seen above 47052.

Approach on Technical: Going into trade this week, Nifty remain strong as compared to Banknifty.  This week’s trade will be dominated by final F&O expiry for February 2024 series.

Technical setup remains bullish till Nifty @ 21957 & Banknifty @ 46073 holds.  We expect indices to test higher target on Nifty @ 22448 & Banknifty @ 47748 & higher.

Fundamental Insight

1) Policy Pivot Unlikely Until Inflation Is Under Control, Show MPC Minutes
2) Citi Research: Nifty Expected to See 14% Earnings Growth for Couple of Years
3) RBI Allows Banks, Non-Banks to Issue Public Transport Payment Instruments

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

Even though market is trading near its fresh life time, market sentiment remains cautious.  High volatility was seen this week cues from domestic & global market remains stable and positive while valuation seems to be stretched.

We continue to maintain our stance to keep allocation level around 65% to 70% while remain bullish with medium to long term view.  We remain cautious with short term view and keeping our strategy to make fresh allocation only on decline.  Technical setup looks bullish going into F&O expiry this week for February 2024 series.  However, we continue to play cautious and expecting high volatility in final F&O expiry week.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
24-Feb-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

10-Feb-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade last week, we were cautious as market rally seems to be showing some sing of weakness post Budget on 1-Feb-24.  We see budget as non-event as there was no major expectation as it was Vote-On-Account ahead of general election in April – May 2024.  Market this week ended with minor cuts as RBI MPC policy was due this week.

Technical Insight

• Nifty in last two week has been trading in range of 21411 to 22115, Nifty has made double top on last Friday would act as resistance level.  Nifty range expected this week is 21680 to 22115.

• Banknifty range for this week is expected to be 45295 to 46571.  Any major move in Banknifty expected once this range is broken on either side.

Approach on Technical: Indian market reacted to Budget last week and RBI MPC policy this week.  We expect indices to follow technical direction as there are no major scheduled event, outcome of which can impact market direction.

Nifty @ 21680 & Banknifty @ 45295 to act as important support level.  If indices break this level – fresh downside could be expected, otherwise we see indices could attempt fresh up move.

Fundamental Insight

RBI Monetary Policy Key Takeaways

• To keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by a 5:1 majority.
• The standing deposit facility rate, pegged 25 basis points below the repo rate, is at 6.25%.
• The marginal standing facility rate, which is 25 basis points above the repo rate, is at 6.75%.

The MPC also decided to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.

India To Sell $11.6 Billion Airwaves to Boost Phone Networks

India’s federal cabinet Thursday approved a plan for selling airwaves in an auction to improve quality and coverage of networks in the world’s second-biggest telecom market.

Forex Reserves Jump To $622.469 Billion

India’s forex reserves jumped by $5.736 billion to $622.469 billion for the week ended Feb. 2, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous week, the overall reserves had increased by $591 million to $616.733 billion.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

We have remained cautious in last few weeks and continue to remain cautiously optimistic but will continue to follow strategy of fresh allocation on correction.  

We see market at current level has factored in political stability, US fed pivot on interest rate and earnings season so far has failed to provide fresh positive triggers.  Rally in PSU stocks continue on optimism of political stability, but we do believe valuation are stretched in near term.

We would continue to keep exposure around 75% and major allocation would be preferred on correction.  We may review our stance incase indices hit fresh high supported by some positive triggers on interest rate going down or any other substantial news which could change market narrative.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
10-Feb-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

27-Jan-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Market going into 3-day trading week with F&O expiry and profit booking seen in previous week, we expected this week to resume uptrend as ICICIBANK result was in-line with market expectation.  Indices seen yet another week of profit booking as Banknifty continue to remain week as HDFCBANK remain weak closing at 1434.90 which is around 15% correction from 16-Jan-24 close.

Technical Insight

• Nifty expected to be in range of 20976 on lower end while fresh up move could be expected once Nifty crosses 21680.  
• Banknifty range for this week could be seen as 43230 on lower side while fresh up move could be expected once Banknifty sustains above 46571.

Approach on Technical: This week again news flow will drive the market as US FOMC meeting outcome on 31-Jan-24, Indian market will be reacting to it on 1-Feb-24 and Budget ahead of general election will be on 1-Feb-24.

Technical setup is weak and it indicates further downside.  Nifty @ 20976 & Banknifty @ 43230 on lower side could be tested this week.  Nifty @ 21680 & Banknifty @ 46571 could be tested on higher side.  VIX @ 13.86 will be important tool and need to turn cautious if VIX goes above 16.

Fundamental Insight

1) LIC Gets RBI Nod to Acquire 9.99% Stake in HDFC Bank
2) Cabinet Approves Rs 8,500 Crore Incentive Scheme For Coal Gasification Projects: Sources
3) Forex Reserves Fall By $2.8 Billion To $616.1 Billion, Says RBI
4) Budget 2024: Government Likely to Target 5.3% Fiscal Deficit Target for FY25, Say Economists

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

This week, US FED meeting outcome on 31-Jan-24, Indian market will react to it on 1-Feb-24 along with Union budget ahead of general election on same date 1-Feb-24.  So, we expect any major move is expected on 1-Feb-24.  

Our strategy would be to focus on keeping exposure around 70% and have balancing approach where we remain positive with medium to long term view and cautious in short term.  Technical setup looks bearish and any lack of positive trigger may lead to correction.  

When we see recent rally, which is seen from December 2023, state election result on 3-Dec-23 and US Fed guided that rate hike may done has triggered the ongoing rally.  We have mentioned earlier also that now focus will shift to earning season which has been mixed so far.  We believe post budget – market could see profit booking as run-up in PSU ‘s has been one of the best rallies seen in recent past.  

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
27-Jan-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

21-Jan-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Nifty started this week’s trade with a bang as Nifty manage to cross 22100 level and close at 22097 on Monday.  Market seen major fall on Wednesday as reaction to HDFCBANK which disappointed market as HDFCBANK ADR was down by more than 15% in two trading session.  HDFCBANK seen cut of more than Rs 200 or 12% from 1679 closing ahead of result on 16-Jan-24.  

Technical Insight

• Nifty key support and resistance level this week could be 21411 to 21680.  Break-out on either direction to provide fresh move in a holiday shorten week.
• Banknifty expected to trade in range of 45295 to 46571.  Decisive move can be expected once this level is crossed on either side

Approach on Technical: Indices will be reacting to ICICIBANK ‘s result on Tuesday & holiday shorten week.  Banknifty monthly expiry on 24-Jan-24 & Nifty and stocks final F&O expiry on 25-Jan-24.

Indices after last week has seen sharp correction on back of HDFCBANK ‘s result on 16-Jan-24.  Nifty @ 21411 & Banknifty @ 45295 to act as important support level and indices to remain in uptrend till these levels are hold.  

Fundamental Insight

1) RBI Not Discussing Rate Cuts Yet, Governor Das Says
2) Retail Inflation For Farm Workers Rises To 7.71% In Dec
3) EPFO Adds 13.95 Lakh Net Members During November 2023
4) India’s Fiscal Deficit To Be Budgeted At 5.3% Of GDP In FY25: BofA Securities

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

F&O expiry for January series due this week in a holiday shorten week, Indian market will be trading for only 3 days this week as Friday will be holiday for Republic Day and soon after that focus will shift to Vote-On-Account, Mini-budget on 1-Feb-24.  ICICIBANK result is in-line with market estimate with NIM at 4.43% Vs 4.53% in previous quarter.  ICICBANK result is better than street estimate and no major concern seen as compared to HDFCBANK.

We remain cautious optimistic as we see many stocks are fairly valued and focus will clearly shift to budget due on 1-Feb-24.  Market will react positively to successful PRAN PARTHISTHA ceremony of RAM MANDIR as focus will now shift to budget and election.  

We would also be focusing on booking part profit and shifting to stocks which are valued attractively.   We remain open to review our allocation strategy based on incoming data and we do not rule out profit booking post budget on 1-Feb-24.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
21-Jan-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

13-Jan-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade last week, we expected Nifty range 21506 – 21834 & Banknifty range 47575 – 48636, Nifty tested both end of the range while Banknifty manage to hold lower end of the range.  Banknifty was showing weakness on chart and it has underperformed.  IT result was key highlight for this week as INFY narrowed guidance to 1.5% – 2% indicating worst may be behind as TCS report operating margin at 25%.  

Technical Insight

• Nifty range for this week could be seen as 21631 to 22306.  Nifty move above 21834 has opened further to 22306 level.
• Banknifty range for this week could be seen as 47575 – 48636.  Banknifty range for this week remains same as last week.

Approach on Technical: IT result provided trigger to Nifty this week and Banknifty could take cues from HDFCBANK result due on 16-Jan-24.  Banknifty to take move on either direction.

We will turn cautious or bearish if Banknifty breaks 47575 and fresh upside momentum can be seen on Banknifty above 47980 to 48636 level.  Banknifty could led the positive momentum as chart indicates positive from consolidation. 

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s CPI Inflation Rises to Four-Month High Of 5.69% In December
2) IIP: Growth In India’s Industrial Output Falls To Eight-Month Low At 2.4%
3) Parliament’s Budget Session Likely Between Jan. 31 And Feb. 9

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

HDFCBANK result could provide decisive direction to Banknifty and could led next round of rally.  IT stocks rallied this week helped Nifty cross its previous and closed at life time high.  HDFCBANK ‘s quarterly business updates were positive and no negative surprise could support to HDFCBANK stock prices which has seen correction in last two weeks after year end rally which on HDFCBANK which crossed 1700 level.  

We remain positive and would continue to maintain bullish stance unless we see negative cues dominating and market direction turns negative.   Our strategy would to remain long on Banks, Defense stocks and Infrastructure stocks going into Vote-on-account (mini-budget).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
13-Jan-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

6-Jan-24 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade in the first week of 2024, we expected to consolidate after year-end rally seen in last two weeks of December 2023.  Market had volatile session in range and ended the week flat on major indices.  Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 stocks gained around 2% on major indices, rally continues in Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks.

Technical Insight

• Nifty range for next week could see break-out from this range of 21506 – 21834.  Nifty technical indicate positive momentum to accelerate once 21834 is crossed.
• Banknifty range of this week is expected from 47575 to 48636.  We remain positive on Banknifty and will review long position only if Banknifty goes below 47575.

Approach on Technical: last week was all about consolidation and we expect this week, market to take decisive direction.  Indices consolidated this week after two weeks of major rally.

Nifty is strong as compared to Banknifty on daily chart, Indices likely to maintain positive momentum as Nifty @ 21506 & Banknifty @ 47575 holds on closing basis.  

Fundamental Insights

1) India GDP: Advance Estimates Peg FY24 Growth At 7.3%, Nominal GDP Expansion At 8.9%
2) HDFC Bank Q3 Updates: Deposit Accretion Slows
3) India To Tighten Budget Deficit as Bond Index Inclusion Beckons

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

Global cues are muted as incoming U.S. economic data will play important role in providing fresh cues for interest rate which was key reason of rally in global market in December 2023.  U.S. CPI & Core CPI inflation data will due next will provide important direction as US 10-year bond yield back above 4.00%.

IT stocks – INFY & TCS to start earnings season on 11-Jan-24, we see IT stocks may have bottomed out and we go into result season with positive view on IT stocks.  HDFCBANK quarterly business failed to cheer the market but we see this number as positive as credit growth remains healthy.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
06-Jan-24 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

30-Dec-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade into last trading week, we expected market to test its recent high and close at higher level due to year end rally.  Most indices closed at highest level with week gains of around.  Indices on Monthly basis has rallied more than 7% on major indices while Mid-cap & Small-cap gained just under 7%.  

Global market closed flat on weekly basis as market was in holiday mood and low volatility.Now let us looks at year change for all these major indices.  Nifty 50 & SENSEX30 gained around 20% while Banknifty underperformed among indices by growth of up to 12.34%.  

Highlight will be Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap100 indices which gained by 46.57% and 55.62% respectively.  After underperforming in 2022 and early part of 2023, 2nd half of calendar year 2023 delivered one of the best returns in recent times.  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy  

This week we will not focus on technical because the movement we have seen in last two weeks was mainly due to year-end rally.  We would now focus on fresh indication from technical trend.

We see year-end rally to cool-off in first week and then corporate earnings will take lead from here on.  We remain optimistic on IT and Banking stocks going into earnings season as improvement in global sentiment will play important role, even if result may be weak but we expect positive commentary from IT companies.   Globally expectation of interest rate to cool-off has provided big boost for banking and financials company.  Any correction in first few weeks can be seen as opportunity to deploy fund available.

As mentioned in our earlier we have remained invested around 70% in trading portfolio and 80% in positional portfolio.  Rally in last week was used to book part profit for short term trades and fresh review will be taken with view on corporate earnings, Vote on account (mini budget before general election on 1-Feb-24) and potential reversal in interest rate globally.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
30-Dec-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

23-Dec-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices ended this week with correction of around 1% but huge volatility was seen on Wednesday.  Market started this week on positive note before seeing sharp reversal on Wednesday & recovery on Thursday and Friday.  Market rally halted after two back-to-back weeks of positive news flow and rallied over 5% on all major indices.

Technical Insight

• Nifty after sharp fall on Wednesday is now trading in neutral zone with bullish trend.  Nifty likely to remain in 20809 to 21492 range.
• Banknifty range for this week likely to be in 46800 & 48200.  Banknifty Thursday’s low of 46919 to act as important level and fresh downtrend once this level is broken.

Approach on Technical: In last week’s technical approach, we mentioned that we will take rally of previous two weeks into consideration.  Historically market in last week of calendar year tends to remain higher specifically when it is trading near its life-time high.

Nifty @ 21070 & 20809 to act as important support level and 21492 as resistance level.  Banknifty @ 47042 & 46314 (23.6% & 38.2% retracement level) to act as support level and 48219 as resistance level.  Market likely to hold on last Thursday’s low and test recent high this week.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Agri Exports Likely to Reach $53 Billion This Fiscal: Government
2) RBI To Boost Liquidity with Rs 1.75 Lakh Crore VRR Auction
3) Fitch Says Better Profitability at Indian Corporates to Support Rating Headroom

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

We expect market to hold on to current level with year-end rally likely to test recent high made on Wednesday.  Market correction on Wednesday was over-due and COVID scare triggered further sell-off.  We do not expect COVID-19 could trigger fresh weakness as we have seen in March 2020.

Our strategy this week would to focus on year end rally and keep stock specific approach and keep investment level around 80% or increase to 90% with short term view.  We expect rally next week and it may continue in first week of January as well ahead of earnings season.  Once earnings season starts – corporate earnings will provide fresh cues.  Defense, IT & Banks would be interesting play for next 1 – 2 weeks on long side.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
23-Dec-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document