Author: equichain

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 11-May-22

Indian market ended at lower point of the day; pain was outside blue-chip stocks.  Metal, Oil & Gas and other mid-cap counters were down heavily.

VIX @ 22.30: it remains our biggest concern, Nifty continue to witness daily volatility of 250 points & above, this trend may continue.  It would turn ugly if VIX rise above 24 – 25 level.

SGX Nifty indicates flat opening ahead of important inflation data.  Technical view remains bearish on intermediate term & bounce seen till Nifty @ 16124 & Banknifty @ 34074 are hold on to.

Market can surprise with short covering rally, we would prefer to play any long via hedge or options at the same time reduce exposure bring cash level to 20%, 30% or even 50% as per conviction as risk-off trade continues and market is yet to bottom out.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 10-May-22

Indian market recovered after gap-down opening, ended with losses less than 1 % on Indices.

Wall street ended another day of selling as risk-off trade continues. Bitcoin now trade below $31000 in major risk-off trade.  Crude oil declines as European union softens some of sanctions on Russian oil, Crude oil slide over 5%.

INR plunges to all-time low closed at 77.4825.  RBI intervenes to defend rupee, India’s forex reserve at comfortable level of $600 dollar.  RBI seeks order depreciation.

LIC IPO fully subscribed, final subscription ends at 3x the issue.  Retails portion subscribed 2x and Policy holder subscribed at 6.12x.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 9-May-22

Market View: Market is in oversold zone; global cues remain negative even after sharp sell-off seen in last week.  Technical indicate bounce back on chart, we would prefer to play long via options & prefer to reduce position on rise.

Nifty PCR @ 0.74 does indicate oversold zone, after today’s gap-down & around support level of 16124 on Nifty – it could provide favourable risk-reward to go long.  To play any long we would prefer to play via hedge position as overall trend reman sell on rise for the month of May 2022.

VIX @ 21.25: closing above 20 would be cautious and in case VIX above 25 could be highly volatile.

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Research Report

Global Market – US FOMC surprise ends – Actions begins

US FOMC – Surprise ends & Action begins @ RBI & BOE – ECB to follow

Central banks across the world are now clearly & boldly moving towards tighter monitory policy and focus remains to bring inflation to manageable level.  ECB had earlier guided for rate hike in September 2022, but recent development – market participants are expecting rate hike as early as July and could hike rate 3 times in 2022.

If we summarize, its economic war going on to retain financial supremacy at a time of stagflation and politician globally are facing heat of high inflation from the people of their respective countries.  We believe next 3 – 6 months will be critical for government and central banks across the world.

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Weekly Reports

7-May-22 Fundamental and Technical Insight

This week was an eventful, US FOMC & BOE meeting was scheduled and RBI MPC’s surprise meeting on 4-May-22.  Reliance came out with numbers on Friday evening which will react to it on Monday.

Next week could give a surprise short covering bounce, only to move lower again.  This view may not happen in a week and this week we may remain or close in a green.  Broader trend remains downward.

This week could provide much needed short covering bounce and we believe to follow capital allocation strategy.  Bring cash level anywhere between 20% – 50% as per conviction.  By the end of May month or 1st half of June – Indices could be trading at lower level from Friday’s closing.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-May-22

Indian market ended flat and gave up early gains, even weekly options expiry fails to hold on to market and indices closed near the low points of day.

Band of England – raise inflation target for FY22 to 10% from 5.75%.  It triggered sell-off in global market.

Wall Street – major indices were down from 3.12% to 4.99%.  US Market witness relief rally / short covering post US Fed chairman Jerome Powell press conference.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 5-May-22

RBI surprise rate hike triggered panic sell-off ahead of US FOMC meeting.  Indices were down around 2.29% – 2.49%.  RBI hikes repo rate by 40 bps to 4.40% & CRR by 50 bps.

US FOMC meeting outcome: increase rate by 50 bps & Balance sheet reduction to start from 1st June with $47.5 billion per month and will go up to maximum $95 billion per month in 3 months.

Wall Street recovered sharply post US Fed chairman Jerome Powell press conference, ruling out aggressive rate hike.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-Mar-22

Russia-Ukraine talks: Russia to sharply cut military operation near KYIV & CHERNIHIV. Globally market as taken this as a first step towards end of war.

Commodity prices cooled off on reaction of this news are covered after initial downward reaction. Gold went below $1900 is now above $1920. Crude Oil recovered around $4 – 5 from yesterday’s low.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 28-Mar-22

Indian Market25-Mar-22
IndicesCloseChange% chg
Nifty17153.00-69.75-0.40%
Sensex57362.20-233.48-0.41%
Banknifty35410.10-117.00-0.33%
Indian Market25-Mar-22
Other IndicesCloseChange% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 10029274.55-33.80-0.12%
Nifty Small-Cap 10010304.45-51.20-0.49%
India VIX23.43-0.50-2.09%
US Market25-Mar-22
IndicesCloseChange% chg
Dow 3034861.24153.300.44%
S&P 5004543.0422.880.51%
Nasdaq14169.30-22.54-0.16%
Currency / Commodity25-Mar-22
IndicesCurrent
USD/INR76.1950
EUR/INR83.9560
Dollar Index99.115
US 10-year bond2.505%
WTI Crude Oil$ 110.58
Brent Crude Oil$ 114.30
Gold$ 1947
Bitcoin$ 46,862
FII / DII Activity25-Mar-22Rs. (In Crores)
(Provisional)BuySell
FII1507.37
DII1373.02

Trade Setup

  • China begins locking down most of its largest city, Shanghai, to begin mass testing its population of 26 million, reports AP
  • Russia-Ukraine crisis enters 33rd day – any positive news on this front will be taken positively for market, on-going conflict with no other nation getting involved will remain market neutral.
  • Indian market: focus will shift on final F&O expiry for March series and year end NAV management will keep downside limited.
  • Petrol & Diesel prices hiked for sixth time in seven days: 30 paise / Litre in Petrol & 35 paise / Litre in Diesel.
  • SGX Nifty @ 17212.50 up 21.50 points at 8:00 AM

Technical View

  • Nifty: RSI @ 53.74 & RSI average @ 52.63. 200-DMA @ 17036 & 20-DMA @ 16717. We expect Nifty to trade with downward bias and likely to test lower level at 17036 & 16717 and resistance level on Nifty comes at 17339.
  • Banknifty: took support near 20-DMA @ 35170 on Friday at 35203. Banknifty trading near important support level, below this Banknifty could test lower level at 34491 & 33940.
  • VIX @ 23.43: have cooled-off around 30 level in 1st week of March, but still remain above comfort level of 20, we expect volatility to continue.
  • SGX Nifty @ 17212.50: Indicate flat opening after last hour recovery on Friday, whether it was only limited to Friday or this trend can continue – opening hour trade will provide further cues.
  • Nifty & Banknifty trend reversal: Nifty at 17285 & Banknifty at 35957 could act as resistance level and above this could open further upside.

Stock Updates

  • PVR: The multiplex operator has approved a merger with Inox Leisure. Shareholders will get three shares of PVR for every ten shares they hold of Inox. PVR now operates the largest multiplex network in India with 871 screens at 181 properties in 73 cities (India and Sri Lanka).
  • Vedanta: The board of Vedanta approved capital expenditure of $687 million in Cairn Oil & Gas to increase near-term volume. It earmarked a capex of $466 million towards Zinc International’s Gamsberg Phase 2 project. Further, it has set aside $348 million for an expansion project at its subsidiary ESL Steel.
  • Larsen & Toubro: The Ministry of Defence has signed a contract with Larsen & Toubro for acquisition of two multipurpose vessels for Indian Navy at an overall cost of Rs 887 crore.
  • Bharti Airtel: Bharti Airtel to buy 4.7% stake in Indus Towers for Rs 2,388.06 crore.
  • Exide Industries: Exide Industries incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Exide Energy Solutions Ltd., to set up a a green field multi-gigawatt Lithium-ion cell manufacturing facility in India with an initial authorised and paid-up equity share capital of Rs 100,000.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.
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Weekly Reports

Weekly Report 26-Mar-22

Indian Market25-Mar-22
Weekly ChangeCloseChange% chg
Nifty17153.00-134.05-0.78%
Sensex57362.20-501.730.87%
Banknifty35410.10-1018.45-2.80%
Indian Market25-Mar-22
Other IndicesCloseChange% chg
Nifty Mid-Cap 10029274.55296.651.02%
Nifty Small-Cap 10010304.4525.400.25%
India VIX23.430.823.63%
US Market25-Mar-22
Weekly ChangeCloseChange% chg
Dow 3034861.24111.880.32%
S&P 5004543.0479.951.79%
Nasdaq14169.30275.461.98%
Currency / Commodity25-Mar-22
IndicesCurrent
USD/INR76.1950
EUR/INR83.9560
Dollar Index98.843
US 10-year bond2.488 %
WTI Crude Oil$ 112.58
Brent Crude Oil$ 117.34
Gold$ 1957.75
Bitcoin$ 44,535
FII / DII Activity25-Mar-22Rs. (In Crores)
(Weekly - Prov)BuySell
FII-5344.39
DII2820.72

Technical Insight

  • Nifty remain range of 17006 – 17442. Nifty took support at 200-DMA on Tuesday and manage to hold to this level, Friday’s session was weak until last hour short covering rally.
  • Nifty 200-DMA @ 17036 will continue to act as important support level and 20-DMA comes at 16717. This week high of 17442 would act is important resistance level going into final F&O expiry.
  • Looking at Nifty's chart – we would remain cautious with and expect 200-DMA to broken next week and 20-DMA could be tested around 16717 level. Trendline support is expected around 16400 level.
  • Banknifty faces resistance at 200-DMA @ 36706, was able to cross intraday but closing was below 200-DMA.
  • Banknifty on Friday took support at 20-DMA @ 35170, made low of 35203 on Friday, remain critical going into final F&O expiry week.
  • Gap between 20-DMA & 200-DMA comes around 1500 points, chart indicates bearish formation and would prefer to go short once 20-DMA on Banknifty is broken.

Fundamental Insight

  • Global factor continues to circle around Russia-Ukraine crisis. US has put further sanctions on Russian law maker and corporates. Russia continues to remain major energy partner for Europe as supply of Natural gas and Crude Oil continues, latest news is US & EU strike LNG deal as Europe seeks to cut dependence on Russian gas.
  • Year end factors keeps downside in market limited, this week ended flat in a volatile trade. Mid-Cap & Small-Cap seen reviewed interest and we see it as year end factor which may continue going into result season.
  • Domestic fuel prices increase 4 times this week as international crude oil prices are back above $110.
  • FII selling pressure has reduced and we believe Indian market remain hostile to FII selling and continue to trade in volatile range going into final F&O expiry.
  • IT stocks bounce back from lows and few names are within 5% of its recent high and companies like TATAELXSI are trading at fresh 52 week high.
  • Russia-Ukraine crisis enters 5th week, Russia started its military operations on 24-Feb-22.
  • We continue to maintain our view mention last week. Even if things get normalize and market may see some relief rally – it could very well be a selling opportunity, as we see change in commodity price, business preference and sanctions on Russia may change business preference.

Market View & Strategy

  • Market had reacted to Russia-Ukraine crisis and as it enter its 5th week, unless major escalation, downside on this news seems to be limited. Indian market going through year-end factor / NAV management keeping Mid-Cap & Small-Cap stocks in focus.
  • Relief rally post US FOMC outcome last week which was followed by volatile session this week, we would prefer to reduce exposure and bet for downward move in final week of F&O expiry and financial year end.
  • In either or case, interest rate is moving higher and US Fed post its post meeting press conference is not ruling out 50 bps rate hike in May 2022 US FOMC meeting. US Fed has already guided for announcement on Balance sheet downsizing in May 2022 meeting which would remain a big overhand on market.
  • We remain highly cautious and would follow strategy – “Sell on Rise” & bring exposure level around 50% of lower as we see major correction even from current level with next 1 – 3 months view which also includes Q4FY22 earnings season.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.