Author: equichain

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 20-May-22

Indian market ended with around 2.5% on Indices taking cues from Wall Street overnight.  IT stocks led the downfall as JP Morgan downgraded IT stocks.

China cuts prime lending rate by 15 pbs, cut is focus on easing impact of recent COVID-19 related lockdown.

Approach on Indices: Nifty & Banknifty have defended March lows & last week low.  We need to remember Tuesday’s 400 points rally & Yesterday’s 400-point decline and such trend may continue.  Be prepared for 300 – 400 points & high volatility to continue.

SGX Nifty indicates gap-up opening around 16000 level, Indian market may continue to trade in tandem with Global market.  Major risk remains is, Indian market open gap-up or gap-down with very limited opportunity for same day.  In any case if Nifty goes below 15740 – 15780 level – we see significant downside to 15318 & 14800 level.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 19-May-22

Indian market ended flat in a volatile session.  Indices opened higher on back of Tuesday’s day massive short covering rally. 

RBI MPC meeting on 2 – 4 May 2022 minutes were released after market hours.  War related inflation have started impacting policy of central banks globally.  

Wall Street had a massive fall since March 2020, indices were down from 3.57% to 4.73%.  US retailer TARGET Corp’s disappointing result yesterday & Walmart result a day earlier had lower growth forecast on rising fuel prices.

SGX Nifty @ 15907.50 down 328 points at 8:05 AM.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 18-May-22

Indian market opened gap-up; recovery led by Metal stocks on news of China reopening from June onwards.  Short covering rally took market Indices higher by 2% – 2.6%.

Wall Street ended higher led by gains in APPLE, TESLA & other stocks after strong retail sales data.  US retail sales increase by 0.9% in April.

US Fed chairman J Powell said at Wall Street journal event to increase interest rate high to kill inflation surge.  Treasury rise & crude oil was down around 2% post his comment.

Approaches on Indices: SGX Nifty indicates opening around 16225.  After yesterday’s rally – market is clearly out from over-sold zone.  We remain cautious with possibility of further downside

BHARTIARTL: will react to numbers – expect gap-up opening.

INFY: INFY ADR was up 3.54%.  IT stocks could remain positive in an otherwise weak market.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 17-May-22

Indian market ended volatile session with minor gains as Banknifty ended more than 1% higher.

Government put BPCL disinvestment on hold, LIC IPO lists today – GMP as on yesterday was around 20 – 25 discount.

Today’s view on Indices: We remain watchful of 15780 on lower end of range & 16156 on upper end of range. Big move is expected by final F&O expiry on 26-May-22.

We see value buying opportunity in IT stocks – as most of bad news are out. Metal also remains in focus as China plans to open from June onwards. Banking stocks showing some support at lower level. Short-covering rally is could be strong but we will play only above 16156 & VIX cool-off below 22.

 

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 16-May-22

Today’s view on Indices: SGX Nifty was trading above 15900 level on back of strong US market cues, today’s opening indicates flat opening.  We expect sell-off in opening as Indices trade near important support level & around levels seen in March 2022.

As we have mentioned in our weekly report, we remain highly cautious with a high probability of Indices testing lower level before any significant bounce back in seen.  LIC IPO listing tomorrow.  Trade this week with due risk assessment. 

Geopolitical news: Finland & Sweden to apply for NATO membership.  Russia had earlier warned Finland & Sweden against joining NATO.

SGX Nifty @ 15785.50 up 13.50 points at 8:05 AM. & DOW30 future down around 200 points.

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Weekly Reports

14-May-22 – Fundamental & Technical Insight

Indices were more around 4% on weekly basis.  Mid-Cap 100 was down 5.24% & Small-Cap 100 down by 7.98%.  VIX @ 23.48 remains above comfortable level.  2nd half selling on Friday – Nifty closed below 16000 level and near lows made in 7 – 8 March 2022

Based on our view on chart, we have a mix view on market.  So how we will approach market – In case VIX goes above 25 – we would prefer to play for lower level of 15300 & 14800 level.  On the other hand, if VIX stays below 25 & Nifty approaches above 16000 level – we would prefer to play for short -covering.

For short term: Play via hedge position & in equity market – prefer to buy as per conviction in case of huge fall this week with medium to long term view.  


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Research Report

Risk-Off Trade – Equity Currency & Crypto Currency

This week, we will discuss impact of US FOMC policy which is now very clear on its monitory policy.  US Fed have now used all its financial tools and now the focus depends on quantum of rate hike which will be followed by US Fed, ECB, BOE & RBI.  

First let us discus valuation reset and opportunity which comes with a shake off which we have seen this week.

Crypto currency is now a familiar word in financial world.  There are two extreme groups who are believer in crypto currency and on the other side of the camp who are non-believer as it is not regulated by any country and does not have any underlining as assets.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 13-May-22

Indian market closed near low made on 7 – 8 March 2022, just after Russia-Ukraine crisis and Sanctions on Russia triggered commodity prices sky rocketing.

Inflation data for April 2022: highest in 8 years at 7.79% as compared to 6.95% in March 2022.  IIP growth for March 2022 @ 1.85% compared to revise estimate of 1.5%.

VIX @ 24.26: VIX at this level is just short of tuning to level which could bring ugly volatility.  VIX above 24 – 25 level – we will turn extra cautious. 

SGX Nifty @ 15968 up 151.50 points at 8:40 AM.  With yesterday low as near-term bottom for this rally.  First gap-up will get sold into.  If Indices manage to hold on to gap-up opening, 2nd half could trigger another round of rally.  SBIN numbers to watch for.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 12-May-22

Indian market recovered in 2nd half ahead of critical US CPI & Core CPI data.  Nifty manage to close above important support level of 16124.

US CPI inflation data came at 8.3% Y on Y, against estimate of 8.1%.  Previous month CPI was at 8.5%.  Core CPI came @ 6.2% – estimate 6.0%.

Higher CPI & Core CPI data renewed fear of US FOMC may follow 3 hike of 50 bps in next 3 meetings.

Risk-off trend continues, tech stocks & crypto currency sees major sell-off as move towards safe and tangible assets & assets with underlining value sees buying.  We continue to maintain cautious for the month of May 2022, more shake-off expected.

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Research Report

Dollar Index Vs Other currency – Equichain View

INR against 3 major currencies – USD, EUR & GBP from 1-Jan-20 to 9-May-22.
&
USD/INR @ 77.50 – all time low – Key developments

US Dollar being a reserve currency and enjoys the status of safe heaven investment, any risk-off trade will move money towards US treasury and US Dollar.

US Dollar Index basket consists of 6 currencies – EURO, SWISS FRANC, JAPENESE YEN, CANADIAN DOLLAR, BRITISH POUND AND SWEDISH KORNA.

Rubble continues to trade strong compared to other currencies since Russia-Ukraine crisis.  It had a highly volatile move post announcement on sanctions by US & European nations.

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