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Weekly Reports

15-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review:
In our last week review, upper end of target on Nifty was at 17799 & Banknifty at 41625. Both indices manage to close above this level and major move came on back of US CPI & Core CPI data which came below expectation. India’s CPI data came at 5.66% for March 2023, at 15-months low and below RBI’s tolerance level of 4% (+/- 2) this is range of 2% – 6%.

We continue to maintain bullish view and as mentioned last week, we have reduced exposure by 8% – 12% as Indices are near our upper end of the range that is Nifty @ 17799 & Banknifty @ 41625. Indices manage to close above this level opening further upside but correction / consolidation in near term will provide fresh opportunity for entry.

Last week – review

In our last week review, upper end of target on Nifty was at 17799 & Banknifty at 41625.  Both indices manage to close above this level and major move came on back of US CPI & Core CPI data which came below expectation.  India’s CPI data came at 5.66% for March 2023, at 15-months low and below RBI’s tolerance level of 4% (+/- 2) this is range of 2% – 6%.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 65.90 & RSI average @ 58.07.  Nifty recorded 9 continuous trading days of gains and around 1000 points rally from 16850 to 17840.

• Banknifty RSI @ 68.41 & RSI average @ 58.72.  Banknifty rallied from 39325 to 42132 without any major correction with only 10-Apr-23 ended with minor loss.  Banknifty rallied around 2800 points in 9 sessions

Approach on Technical: As Nifty closed above 17799 & Banknifty above 41625 – we see technical indicators has given fresh positive break-out.  But as Indices have rallied without any major correction or consolidation, any consolidation would be healthy.

Indices has rallied around 5% to 7% from 24-Mar-23 and is now within 5% – 7% of its fresh all-time high.   Technical indicate fresh positive uptrend but we expect correction / consolidation in 17th – 21st April 2023 week.

Fundamental Insight

1) CPI Inflation Falls To 15-Month Low Of 5.66% In March
2) India To See ‘Below-Normal’ Monsoon This Year: Skymet Forecast
3) OPEC+ Output Cut May Lead To Higher Oil Prices, Push Up India’s Import Bill: IEA
4) IMF Cuts India’s GDP Growth Forecast To 5.9% For FY24
5) India’s Forex Reserves Rise By $6.30 Billion To $584.75 Billion

Market View & Strategy

We continue to maintain bullish view and as mentioned last week, we have reduced exposure by 8% – 12% as Indices are near our upper end of the range that is Nifty @ 17799 & Banknifty @ 41625.

Strategy for this week would be to focus on stocks which has so far underperformed and has potential for fresh up move, IT to remain weak as TCS & INFY disappoints.  Banking stocks going into result with positive expectation could witness profit booking.

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