1-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review
No fresh bad news this week was good news for market as clam returns in global market. We did maintain Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37387 could be bargain buying level, but Indices bounced back without testing this level. Nifty above 17202 & Banknifty above 40201 has witness sharp rally on Friday.

Nifty above 17201, likely to test 17428 on Monday, Indices during the consolidation phase from 14-Mar-23 to 28-Mar-23 has manage to form 16850 – 16950 on Nifty & on Banknifty 39000 – 39500 as some kind of base.

We have been cautious and mentioned Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37387 as bargain buying level, but this week closing is Indices are 4% – 6% above this level & nearly 3.5% – 5% above its March 2023 lows.

Last week – review

No fresh bad news this week was good news for market as clam returns in global market. We did maintain Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37387 could be bargain buying level, but Indices bounced back without testing this level. Nifty above 17202 & Banknifty above 40201 has witness sharp rally on Friday.

Technical Insight

• Nifty correction from 17799 to 16828 – next resistance / target level comes at 17428 (61.8% retracement) & 17799 (100% retracement ) level. Nifty @ 17199 & 16981 could act as support level.
• Banknifty @ 39781 could act as strong support level. Banknifty could test 41400 – 41700 range on upper end this week.

On upper end Nifty could test 17799 and Banknifty could test 41671 level this week and would act as strong resistance level. Nifty range 17201 – 17799 & Banknifty range 39781 – 41671 for 3-trading day week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Government To Borrow Rs 8.88 Lakh Crore In First Half Of FY24
2) India’s Eight Core Industries Grow 6% In February, The Slowest In Three Months
3) India’s Current Account Deficit Narrows To 2.2% Of GDP In Q3 FY23
4) Government Exceeds FY23 RE Target Of Combined Disinvestment, Dividend Mop Up
5) Government Announces Small Savings Interest Rate Hike For First Quarter Of New Fiscal
6) Fiscal Deficit Till February At 83% Of Full-Year Target

Market View & Strategy

Global interest rate has been increased since March 2022 and this rate hike cycle is one of the steepest paces of hike, but now there are enough indicator to believe that we are near to end and global central banks has refused to comment on future rate hike, keeps door open for pause or pivot. Any official confirmation of pause or pivot will be bullish for risk-on sentiment.

Going into trade for 3-Apr-23 to 6-Apr-23, 3-trading day week with RBI MPC meeting outcome on 6-Apr-23, we expect high volatility with positive bias. We maintain positive view on market with expectation of Indices to test upper end of the range mentioned in technical view ahead of quarterly earning season which could begin from 2nd week of April 2023.

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1-Apr-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf