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Global Market – Will US Fed signal pause on 22-Mar-23 – US Fed meeting

This week we will focus on US Fed meeting outcome on 22-Mar-23. Market participants will be watching closely as crisis has impacted few US regional banks and European banks. ECB raised rates by 50-bps on 16-Mar-23, but scrapped future guidance as situation is still evolving.

Last week, probability of 50-bps rate hike by US Fed on 22-Mar-23 was more than 75% after US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony, lots of things have changed in last 1 week. Before ECB meeting there was expecting that ECB might go for 25-bps rate hike and US Fed could keep rate unchanged. ECB raised rates by 50-bps on 16-Mar-23 and currently market is factoring in 25-bps rate hike by US Fed.

Global Market – Will US Fed signal pause on 22-Mar-23 – US Fed meeting

This week we will focus on US Fed meeting outcome on 22-Mar-23.  Market participants will be watching closely as crisis has impacted few US regional banks and European banks.  ECB raised rates by 50-bps on 16-Mar-23, but scrapped future guidance as situation is still evolving.

US Fed balance sheet increase by $300 billion to $8.69 trillion from $8.39 trillion

• $152.85 billion – Discount borrowing window
• $164.80 billion – Banks borrowing from US Fed.

US regional bank (FRC) First Republic Bank – Big US banks deposit $30 billion deposit

• JPMORGAN, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo each making a $5b uninsured deposit into FRC
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each depositing $2.5b
• BNY-Mellon, PNC bank, state street, U.S. bank each deposit $1b

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Last week, probability of 50-bps rate hike by US Fed on 22-Mar-23 was more than 75% after US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony, lots of things have changed in last 1 week.

Since last week financial crisis in US & Europe is evolving and now is fearing more negative surprise from US & European banks.  We continue to believe that US Fed meeting outcome on 22-Mar-23 will be very important and crucial for market.  After this week’s event we have turn cautious as this financial crisis could trigger domino effect unless properly addressed by US Fed.