Global Market- Powell speech, Jobs data & China ‘s zero COVID policy
This week we will discuss strong monthly jobs data, US Fed chair Jerome Powell speech, OPEC+ meeting in focus next week and China likely to change its zero COVID policy to boost economy as protest seen across China.
US Economic data – released on 2-Dec-22
1. Average hourly earnings – Actual @ 0.6% Vs estimate of 0.3%
2. Nonfarm payroll change – Actual @ 263k Vs estimate of 200k
3. Unemployment rate – Actual @ 3.7% Vs estimate of 3.7%
Powell’s ‘Most Important’ Inflation Indicator Is Cooling Down
Prices of services excluding housing and energy services rose 0.3% in October, the smallest increase in three months, and down from a 0.5% jump in September.
China May Signal Policy Shift to Economy from Covid Zero
The 24-member Politburo, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body, usually convenes in early December every year to set broad guidelines for economic policy for the coming year.
Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion
In his speech this week, US Fed chair Jerome Powell has put focus on two major points which we think is clear indication of what can be expected from next US Fed meeting. Fed rate monitor tool indicate 75% probability of 50-bps rate hike.
1) He sees interest rate stable for a consistent period of time before interest rate decrease.
2) He sees slowdown in rate hike and would like to see impact of recent hike play out.
So, we repeat our view and statement for 4th week straight that we see December 2022 as repeat of August 2007.
Recent development seen this week have turned our view bullish and high probability of repeat of August 2007 – January 2008 phase which witness sharp rally in global assets class with risk-on sentiment.