Last week – review
Market going into 3-day trading week with F&O expiry and profit booking seen in previous week, we expected this week to resume uptrend as ICICIBANK result was in-line with market expectation. Indices seen yet another week of profit booking as Banknifty continue to remain week as HDFCBANK remain weak closing at 1434.90 which is around 15% correction from 16-Jan-24 close.
Technical Insight
• Nifty expected to be in range of 20976 on lower end while fresh up move could be expected once Nifty crosses 21680.
• Banknifty range for this week could be seen as 43230 on lower side while fresh up move could be expected once Banknifty sustains above 46571.
Approach on Technical: This week again news flow will drive the market as US FOMC meeting outcome on 31-Jan-24, Indian market will be reacting to it on 1-Feb-24 and Budget ahead of general election will be on 1-Feb-24.
Technical setup is weak and it indicates further downside. Nifty @ 20976 & Banknifty @ 43230 on lower side could be tested this week. Nifty @ 21680 & Banknifty @ 46571 could be tested on higher side. VIX @ 13.86 will be important tool and need to turn cautious if VIX goes above 16.
Fundamental Insight
1) LIC Gets RBI Nod to Acquire 9.99% Stake in HDFC Bank
2) Cabinet Approves Rs 8,500 Crore Incentive Scheme For Coal Gasification Projects: Sources
3) Forex Reserves Fall By $2.8 Billion To $616.1 Billion, Says RBI
4) Budget 2024: Government Likely to Target 5.3% Fiscal Deficit Target for FY25, Say Economists
Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy
This week, US FED meeting outcome on 31-Jan-24, Indian market will react to it on 1-Feb-24 along with Union budget ahead of general election on same date 1-Feb-24. So, we expect any major move is expected on 1-Feb-24.
Our strategy would be to focus on keeping exposure around 70% and have balancing approach where we remain positive with medium to long term view and cautious in short term. Technical setup looks bearish and any lack of positive trigger may lead to correction.
When we see recent rally, which is seen from December 2023, state election result on 3-Dec-23 and US Fed guided that rate hike may done has triggered the ongoing rally. We have mentioned earlier also that now focus will shift to earning season which has been mixed so far. We believe post budget – market could see profit booking as run-up in PSU ‘s has been one of the best rallies seen in recent past.