Last week – review
Going into trade this week, global central banks announced coordinated action to provide liquidity and stability to banking system before Asian market opened on Monday morning. Market continue to trade in narrow range with weekly move in range of 2.5% – 3%.
Approach on Technical: Indices continue to trade in narrow range on back on weak news flow from global banks impacted sentiment globally. In our 11-Mar-23, we mentioned that at time when news flow drives the market technical may take a back seat.
Nifty above 17210 & Banknifty above 40200 could open fresh upside and Nifty below 16825 & Banknifty below 39050 could trigger further downside. We believe Nifty @ 16669 / 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386 are bargain buying level and turn cautious once VIX goes above 16.
Fundamental Insight
1) Union finance budget for 2023 – 24 / Finance bill passed with 64 amendments
2) Forex Reserves Rise At The Fastest Pace In Four Months
3) RBI fortnightly bulletin – for 24-Feb-23 to 10-Mar-23
Market View & Strategy
Global news continues to drive market sentiment, banking crisis in US & Europe continue to dampen sentiment while regulator keeps on providing support & confidence to banking system. Market this week continue to trade in range.
We continue to maintain our stance of last week, what could be bargain buying level – Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37247 are the level we believe are good bargain buying entry level with positional view. Any speculative position, we would prefer to have complete hedge position as we anticipate highly eventful next week or 2 weeks going into financial year end.