Last week – review
In our technical insight we did expect consolidation on indices and move this week was as narrow as it could get. It continues to remain stocks specific move as we are in result season. Last week started with reaction on INFY’s weak disappointing result & guidance and positive result from HDFCBANK.
Technical Insight
• Nifty move from 16918 to 17842, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 17489 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 17271. Nifty above 17842 could indicate fresh break-out and open further upside.
• Banknifty rally from 39273 to 42603, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 41331 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 40545. Banknifty above 42603 could open upside move towards fresh high of 44151.
Approach on Technical: Last week consolidation should continue next week as we are going into final F&O expiry for April 2023 series with steady technical setup.
Nifty @ 17271 & Banknifty @ 40545 are important level and should hold for uptrend to continue. Our base view is that indices would take support at 38.2% level and resume uptrend.
Fundamental Insight
1) HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger: RBI Grants No Exemptions On CRR, SLR Requirements
2) RBI Says Probability Of Lower Inflation Rising, Pegs Q4 GDP Growth At 5.4%
3) MPC Minutes: Members Continue To Emphasise On Pause, Not Pivot
4) Reliance Industries Q4 Results: Profit Jumps 19.8% Beating Estimates On Higher Margin
5) ICICI Bank Q4 Results: Net Profit Up 30% YoY
Market View & Strategy
Is this the “calm before the storm” or not is tough to answer but we surely believe that volatility is going to increase in coming weeks as US Fed meeting on 3-May-23 is critical and important event.
Our strategy this week would be to deploy fund which is currently available, but only if there is some correction and there is clear break-out supported by domestic and global cues.
Our broad view remains positive and would prefer to have stocks specific approach within basket of stocks within our various. concept list. Monday’s opening will be guided by RELIANCE & ICICIBANK result and F&O expiry will lead to increase volatility which could provide good reshuffling opportunity.