September 2023 - Equichain Wealth Advisors

Last week – review

If Friday’s up move is not considered, indices were flat for this week and continue to trade in narrow range, we expected decisive move but market continue to trade in range as market seen selling pressure on Wednesday & Thursday due to F&O expiry. Friday’s move came on back of light position carry forward to September series in 2nd half.

Technical Insight

• Nifty range for this week seen as 19319 to 19674. Nifty likely to cross 19478 and test 19674 on upside while Nifty below 19319 could be seen as weakness and further downside possible.

• Banknifty range for this week 44030 to 45219. Banknifty above 44578 could see fresh round of up move which could test 45219.

Approach on Technical: Technical continue to remain in range with no clear break-out in either direction. We continue to expect break-out in next week as F&O expiry for August series is over.

Nifty range for this week seen at 19319 to 19674 & Banknifty range for this week seen at 44030 to 45219. Nifty above 19478 & Banknifty above 44578 could be seen as fresh round of up move which could test upper range on Nifty @ 19674 & Banknifty @ 45219.

Fundamental Insight

1) Manufacturing PMI Rises To Three-Month High Of 58.6 In August
2) India Sees Russian Oil Ebbing As Rival Suppliers Step Up
3) Economy & Finance El Nino, Food Inflation To Delay RBI’s Easing Of Monetary Policy: Moody’s

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy

F&O expiry for August series has flat to negative after 4 months gain from March 2023. F&O position remain light going into September series as market has seen rally on 1st day of September month & F&O series.

Meanwhile India continues to remain in its own zone of high domestic consumption. RBI continue to remain vigilant as El-Nino could impact food inflation in near term and RBI may keep interest rate high going into festive season.

We have turned bullish and kept our investment unchanged for this week, our view remains bullish and continue to focus on deployment of fund which is available. We expect September month to remain positive after consolidation seen in current month.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

2-Sep-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf

Global Market – U.S. & China’s economic data – Mix picture

This week we will discuss U.S. and China’s economic data which continue to give mix indication and two different strategies by world’s top two economy. U.S. continue to witness robust growth and inflation is key concern and on the other hand for China – recession & slowdown remain key concern.

U.S Economic data & key takeaways

U.S. economic data released this week indicates mix set and which will influence decision making for interest rate in upcoming FOMC meeting on 20-Sep-23. As guided by U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell – Fed may pause at September meeting and wait for incoming data.

China’s Economic data & Steps

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came at 51 Vs expectation of 49 while PMI data released a day earlier came at 49.7 Vs estimate of 49.1.

China last week reduced tax on stock trading to boost confidence for the first time since April 2008. China’s central bank will trim the amount of foreign currency deposits banks are required to hold as deposits.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Recent steps by China could provide boost to consumption which will result in increase in commodity prices such as Crude oil & Metal. In this week, crude oil and metal prices have been rising. This increase in commodity prices will result in high inflation globally and increase worry for U.S.

Global market continues to indicate mix picture whereas Indian story is getting strong day by day. U.S. market continues to remain resilient where as China’s market is showing sign of stabilizing after measures of steps taken by Chinese government. We expect some positive move for global market in the month of September 2023.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Global Market – U.S. & China’s Economic data mix picture .pdf