Month: July 2023

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 14-Jul-23

Wall Street had another positive session as PPI & Core PPI data decline more than estimate.  Many big US Banks will come out with their quarterly earnings and provide fresh cues.

Brent Crude back above $80 as market sentiment improves after US CPI inflation data on Wednesday & PPI data yesterday.  Dollar Index below 100 would improve risk-on sentiment.

Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 seen some selling pressure / supply at higher level as valuation looks stretch going into result season.  HDFCBANK Q1FY24 result on 17-Jul-23 will be key.

F&O data: FII net sell 9554 contracts in index futures, net long: short remains at 69.22%:30.78%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.11 Vs 0.88 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.78 Vs 0.67 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate 50 – 70 points gap-up opening, indices continue to consolidate could trigger another round rally if supported by HDFCBANK & INFY result next week.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19554 Vs 19475 Nifty future previous close

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 12-Jul-23

Wall Street ended higher ahead of important US inflation data.  JP Morgan and other financials gained ahead of result later this week and PPI data on Wednesday.

India’s inflation data will be released today at 5:30 PM.  HCLTECH & TCS are due to announce their result today.  IT stocks going into result with low expectation.

GST Council meeting: GST increase to 28% on online-gaming, horse racing and casino.

F&O data: FII added net long 5151 contracts in Nifty while FII were net seller by 4600 in Banknifty & 541 in FINNIFTY futures.  Nifty PCR @ 1.08 stable.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.67 is near to oversold zone.

Approach on Indices: Banknifty is currently trading around important support level.  Nifty is trading near upper end of the range and break above 19524 could trigger another round of rally.  Banknifty trading near 44773 – an important support level.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19545 up 8 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 11-Jul-23

Wall Street had another positive session as it awaits CPI & PPI data on Wednesday & Thursday respectively.  NASDAQ closed flat as tech stocks seen profit booking at higher level.

PM Modi ‘s visit to France in focus: India set to buy 26 Naval Rafales & 3 Scorpene Subs.  Defense procurement board gives clearance ahead of PM’s visit.

Metal stocks were in focus as China slips to brink of deflation, adding urgency to stimulus package.  CPI data was flat in June and PPI fall by 5.4%.

F&O data: FII added 2979 contracts in index futures, net long: short position remains at 71.86%:28.14%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.98 Vs 0.89 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 0.74 Vs 0.75 previous.

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to consolidate, Nifty trading above important support level @ 19181 & Banknifty is trading close to important support level @ 44773.  Banknifty below 44773 could open further downside to 44228 level.

GIFTNIFTY 19484.50 up 28 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 10-Jul-23

Wall Street had another weak to flat session as jobs data were strong and market corrected on strong jobs data.  Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 91% probability of 25-bps rate hike in next US Fed meeting.

Reliance Industries will be in focus as it approved buyback of Reliance retails shares at 1362 per share.  Reliance retail in fully owned subsidiary of Reliance industries and unlisted and only minority shares are in public.

HAL wins deal of 458 crores from defense – Indian Navy for 2 helicopters.  Defense minister on 3-day visit to Malaysia.

F&O data: FII sold 11244 contracts in index futures, net long position remains at 70.44%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.89 Vs 1.48 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.75 Vs 1.12 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate flat to weak opening, Nifty @ 19181 & Banknifty @ 44228 likely to be tested and key support level.  

GIFTYNIFTY @ 19422.50 down 35.50 points

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Research Report

Global Market – U.S. Fed focus to shift to inflation on strong jobs data

Global Market – US Fed – focus shift to inflation on strong jobs data

This week we will discuss another part of the world where high inflation is problem will be back in focus as US Fed meeting on 26-Jul-23.  Last week, we have discussed that China’s PBOC is reducing policy rates and support growth and providing stimulus package.  

US Fed to hike to highest level seen in year 2000

US Fed current policy rates is 5.00% – 5.25%.  If US Fed increase policy rates by 25-bps on 26-Jul-23 to 5.25% – 5.50% – it will be highest policy rates in 21st Century near to rates seen in the year 2000.  Back in 2006 – 2007 policy rates in U.S. were at 5.25% before market has seen sub-prime crisis followed by recession.

US FOMC meeting minutes for June 2023 policy

Almost all members agreed for more rate hike needed and guided for at least 1 – 2 more rate hike in 2023.  Powell said at a conference in Madrid hosted by the Bank of Spain last week. “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go.”  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

We believe, it is time keep balance approach as globally risk-on sentiment is high despite fear of further rate hike by U.S. Fed.  We do believe that such high interest rate in U.S. could have global impact and market has not fully factored in steepest rate hike by US Fed in last 15 – 16 months.

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Weekly Reports

8-Jul-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, we maintain status quo and keep exposure around 70% to 85%.  Momentum in indices continue at the beginning of the week which later witness some selling pressure on Friday.  Nifty Small-cap 100 gain by 2.60% this week, other indices gain was capped below 1%.

Technical Insight

• Nifty level for this week would – support level @ 19181 & 18977 & resistance level @ 19512 & 19781.  Nifty likely to continue in consolidation zone with negative bias.

• Banknifty level for this week would – support level @ 44773 & 44228 & resistance level @ 45655 & 45990.  Banknifty seems to be in consolidation zone in uptrend.

Approach on Technical: Indices RSI & RSI average trading near 70 level before seen some supply at higher level after rally of 4% – 5% on Nifty & Banknifty with out any correction.  Fast up move on Indices do indicate some consolidation would be healthy.

Our strategy would to find fresh entry opportunity on correction, Nifty @ 18977 & Banknifty @ 44228 & 43345 would provide healthy entry opportunity.  We would avoid chasing momentum and play catch-up in upward momentum.  

Fundamental Insight

1) Annual Economic Review: Amidst Durable Domestic Growth, External Risks Persist
2) India’s Services PMI Stays Strong Despite Easing In June
3) India Should Push to Add Its Bonds to Global Indexes: RBI Report

Equichain Wealth: Market View & Strategy

Market will now focus on earnings season; IT will start earnings season with HCLTECH & TCS to come out with result on 12-Jul-23 & INFY on 20-Jul-23.  HDFCBANK which usually comes out with result in 2nd week and first among private banks to declare earnings is yet to announce day for Q1FY24 result.

We will continue to maintain strategy to remain invested in range of 70% to 85% and continue keep cautious stance.  Recent run-up seen on indices was too fast as compared to expectation.  Global cues continue to remain muted and indicate rate could go higher.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-Jul-23

Wall Street had muted session with minor cuts as US FOMC meeting minutes revealed hawkish signal and indicated rate hike on 26-Jul-23, next US Fed meeting.

Reacting US FOMC meeting outcome, US 10-year bond yield is now trading a 3.95% & Dollar index at 103 indicates further rate hike expected.

Crude oil prices remain steady, WTI Crude @ $72 & Brent crude trading around $77 level.  Base metal prices remain stable.

F&O data: FII added 4605 contracts in index futures, net long position now at 72.39%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.47 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.08 Vs 1.38 previous.

Approach on Indices: GIFTNIFTY indicate flat to negative start, with weekly F&O expiry, today could be a day of big correction which is overdue for some time now.  On lower side Nifty @ 19154 & Banknifty @ 44530 to act as strong support level.  

GIFTNIFTY @ 19488 down 24 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 5-Jul-23

U.S. market was closed on 4-Jul-23 for Independence Day.  Monthly economic data will be released later this week and US FOMC meeting minutes to be released tonight.

HDFCBANK quarterly business updates shows mix trend on merge entity.  HDFCBANK standalone business updates – loan growth at 15.8% & deposit growth at 19.2%.

LTIM to replace HDFC in Nifty from 13-Jul-23.  HDFC to de-list at trade as merge entity with HDFCBANK from 13-Jul-23.

F&O data: FII long position now stands at 71.89% or by 89765 contracts.  Nifty PCR @ 1.47 Vs 1.48 previous and Banknifty PCR @ 1.38 Vs 1.39 previous.

Approach on Indices: Run-up on indices is too fast supported by short covering, we would wait for correction to take fresh long and expect correction from current level.

GIFTYNIFTY @ 19498.50 up 5 points at 8:40 AM

Market View: Broder market sees some sign of consolidation; we would continue to follow strategy to increase cash level on rally and take opportunity to take fresh view on long position on correction & consolidation.  Q1FY24 result season will be key and provide further cues.  Quarterly business updates so far has been in-line with recent rally.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 4-Jul-23

Wall Street had muted session in a holiday shorten session followed by holiday on 4-Jul-23 on U.S. Independence Day.

Quarterly business updates from BAJFINANCE recorded growth of 32% on yearly basis.  In Q1FY23 recorded highest ever AUM growth.

IDFC & IDFCBANK set to merge: IDFC Ltd share holder to get 155 shares of IDFCFIRSTB against 100 shares of IDFC.

VIX @ 11.54: moved above 11 as market witness profit booking.

Approach on Indices: Momentum remains strong, but looks stretched from current level.  We would wait for correction / consolidation for fresh entry.   GIFTNIFTY indicate flat opening and we expect indices to see some selling pressure / supply at current level.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19456 up 17 points at 8:15 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 3-Jul-23

Wall Street continue to rally on Friday ahead of holiday shorten week in US and major jobs data by end of this week.  NASDAQ was up by 1.45% as tech stocks continue to do well.

China’s Caixin PMI continue to show weakness, eased to 50.5 from 50.9 indicate marginal expansion as 50 level mark separates expansion from contraction.

SGX Nifty to trade as GIFT NIFTY from 3-Jul-23, derivative contract with notional value of about $7.5 billion will shift to GIFTNIFTY.

F&O Data: FII added 16333 contracts in index futures, net long position now stands at 72433 contracts.  Net long: short contract now stands at 69.21%:30.79%.

Approach on Indices: Indices in unchartered territory, Nifty @ 19362 & Banknifty @ 44959 could be next target / resistance level and support level on Nifty @ 18932 & Banknifty @ 44253.

GIFTNIFTY @ 19365 up 20 points at 8:20 AM

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