Month: May 2023

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 11-May-23

KARNATAKA exit poll shows hung assembly, JDS could be king maker, Election result on 13-May-23, Saturday.

US CPI @ 4.90% Vs estimate of 5.0% Y/Y.  Core CPI @ 5.5% Vs estimate of 5.5%.  Core CPI in-line and CPI inflation lowest growth cheered market.

Wall Street ended mix, NASDAQ was up above 1%, US 10-year bond yield cooled-off to 3.425% below 3.50%, indicating pause in June Fed meeting.

China’s CPI rose 0.1% on annualized basis – Vs expectation of 0.4% rise.  China’s data shows limited recovery after re-opening.

VIX @ 13.08: towards 14 level ahead of election result on 13-May.

Approach on Indices: Indices after consolidation may attempt fresh up-move on back of lower US inflation data.  Today, it will be weekly index option expiry.  Nifty range seen 18300 – 18400 & Banknifty range seen 43200 – 43700.

SGX Nifty @ 18388.50 up 30 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 10-May-23

Indian market had a quite session yesterday, gave up opening gains to close flat.  Market continues to focus on corporate earnings and stocks specific move seen in absence of any global cues.

Wall Street ended on Tuesday with minor loss as investor shift focus to CPI & Core CPI due to be released on Wednesday, market also focus on meeting between political leaders to discuss debt ceiling.

F&O data: FII were net seller in index futures by 5244 contracts, net long: short position stands at 47.83%:52.17%.  Nifty PCR @ 1 Vs 1.10 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.74 Vs 0.90 previous.

Result in focus today: LT, DRREDDY & GUJGASLTD.

VIX @ 12.68: expect to move higher towards 14 level.

Approach on Indices: We see indices face resistance at higher level, might attempt 1 more time on Nifty towards 18499 & Banknifty towards 44020, but will need positive trigger.  We expect another flat to range bound session ahead of US inflation data & KARNATAKA exit poll numbers today after 6:30 PM.  

SGX Nifty @ 18344 up 33 points at 8:05 AM

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Daily Report 9-May-23

Wall Street had flat session after stellar rally on Friday, market awaits CPI & Core CPI inflation data due to be released on 10-May-23.  US 10-year bond yield back to 3.50% expect higher CPI data.

In absence of any major global cues, market will continue to focus on corporate earnings, stocks in focus would be PIDILITIND, MGL, ANDHRAPAPER, CARBORUNIV & VIPIND.

F&O data: FII bought 13337 contracts in index futures, FII long: short position in Index future now stands at 49.28%:50.72%.

VIX @ 12.64: expected to move towards 14 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, we expect indices to trade in range, Nifty range seen 18150 – 18400 & Banknifty range seen 42600 – 43700 for this weekly expiry.  Market almost recovered Friday’s fall indicates strength in market and will continue to remain strong unless there are fresh negative cues.

SGX Nifty @ 18337 down 13 points at 8:25 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 8-May-23

Banknifty was down more than 2% as HDFCBANK was down by 5.91%.  Second half witness broad base selling going into weekend and profit booking after vertical rally in last few weeks.

Wall street rallied on Friday helped by tech companies, APPLE was up another 4.69% after positive result and $90 billion in shares buy-back.  

VIX @ 12.30: could increase towards 14 level.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.85 from 1.34 previous & Banknifty PCR @ 0.59 Vs 1.28 previous.  From overbought zone to oversold zone in 1 trading day.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate positive opening of 30 points after sharp fall on Friday.  We expect sharp bounce today as we see Friday’s sell-off was overdone but upside could be limited on Nifty @ 18255 & Banknifty @ 43308 would face some selling again.

SGX Nifty @ 18155 up 31 points at 8:10 AM

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Weekly Reports

6-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

After F&O expiry for April series and first trading day of May-23 F&O series start with major rally, Indices this week had flat closing.  Indian market had flat closing on weekly basis, Banknifty ended week with cut of 1.32% while Mid-cap & Small-cap outperformed broader market.  Corporate earnings continue to dominate the sentiment as 2/3 earnings season is completed.

Technical Insight

• Nifty @ 17669 will act support level and Nifty above 18138 could test 18499 & 18860 level.  With RSI correcting for 70 level expected to consolidate next week.

• Banknifty RSI @ 57.95 & RSI average @ 70.19.  Previous day RSI @77.98 & RSI average @ 73.25.  From overbought to oversold zone in 1 trading day.  This indicates probability of high volatility in next week.

Approach on Technical: In last few weeks, market momentum was very strong and indices rallied without any major correction.

Nifty @ 17994 & 17669 could act as support level and prospective level for fresh entry, where as this week Nifty could face resistance @ 18138 & 18255.  Banknifty range for this week seen at 42685 – 44020 with a positive bias.  Banknifty sharp fall on Friday due to HDFCBANK seen to be overdone in near term.  Banknifty below 42685 could open further down side and on negative trigger.

Fundamental Insight

1) India Benchmark Yield Dips To 7.02%, Further Softening Expected in Near-Term: Experts
2) India’s Forex Reserves Rise By $4.53 Billion To Reach $588.78 Billion
3) GST Revenue Collection for April Highest Ever at Rs 1.87 Lakh Crore

Market View & Strategy

This week key event was US Fed meeting, Fed raised rates by 25-bps and hinted for pause on further rate hike as banking crisis with small & regional bank continues.

We would focus on Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 with stocks specific view and stocks which has so far underperformed broader market but has potential for catch-up rally.  Most of PSU are yet to declare result and we would focus with a view on dividend.


This week our strategy would to focus on stock rotation, to book profit partly or fully and move towards PSU where there is potential for dividend play as companies will announce annual result and AGM would be in focus.  Last few weeks have seen market rally which also makes us believe to keep 15% – 20% fund available on liquid for better opportunity in case of any correction due to any reason.

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Research Report

Global Market – US Fed comment & Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate rate cut by Dec-23

Global Market – US Fed comment & Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate rate cut by Dec-23

This week we will discuss the action taken by US Fed and indicative pause by US Fed and we see bond yield indicating softening in economy and fed fund rate monitor tool indicate rate cut by end of 2023.

US Fed decision on 3-May-23

• Fed raises rates by 25 bps as expected to 5.25%
•  Policy statement softens the rate guidance in a way consistent with past pauses
• Deletes reference to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”
• Unanimous decision
• Fed Chair Powell: a decision on a pause was not made today
• Powell: we’ll make decisions meeting by meeting, based on data

Fed rate monitor tool – showing US Fed 13-Dec-23 meeting

Currently US Fed continues to focus on long term inflation target of 2% and has removed this reference from this policy statement – “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” and have guided for decision to be taken meeting by meeting.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

This rate hike cycle by US Fed is one of the steepest rate hikes by US Fed and with last rate hike of 25-bps rate hike on 3-May-23.  US interest rate is highest in last 4-decades.

US Fed has guided for pause and not pivot as of now, there is banking crisis going in regional banks in US which is taken care by US regulator.  We believe market has not factored in any banking crisis in big US banks.  We have earlier also seen US Fed changing its view based on incoming data and we would prefer to focus on incoming US economic data.

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 5-May-23

Wall Street continue to correct post US Fed decision as worries over banking crisis continues, PacWest ‘s move to explore strategic options deepened fears about US banks.

APPLE announce result – beat market estimate on stronger iPhone sales, announce buy-back of $90 billion.

ADANIENT, HEROMOTOCO & TVSMOTOR announce result, beat market estimate.  TATAPOWER continue to deliver better result.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 1.34 Vs 1.02 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.28 Vs 1.09 previous.  FII long: short position at 47.29%:52.71%.

Approach on Indices: Indices do indicate overbought zone; some correction would be healthy.  We expect Nifty @ 17994 & Banknifty 42903 & 42603 to be considered as fresh entry level.  SGX Nifty indicate 50 points gap-down opening, expect further correction.

Stocks in focus: GRASIM, JUBLFOOD, ABCAPITAL, PRESTIGE & STLTECH.

SGX Nifty @ 18239.50 down 45.50 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Report 4-May-23

Wall Street ended with cut of less than 1% on all major indices reacting to US Fed decision of 25-bps rate hike.  US Fed guided for pause and avoided guiding for rate cut in near future.

US Fed chair Jerome Powell – If inflation stays high, we won’t cut rates, FOMC inflation outlook does not support rate cut.

Crude oil continues to drag lower on global economic concern, WTI Crude below $70 & Brent Crude oil below $75, lowest level since early 2022.

F&O data: FII net sold 15957 contracts in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 1.02 Vs 1.16 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.09 VS 1.00 previous.  Nifty range seen 18000 – 18200 & Banknifty range 43000 – 43500 for today.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap-down opening of 50 – 70 points as US Fed decision failed to bring any cheers.  We expect volatility after initial opening and through out the day due to week options expiry. 

SGX Nifty @ 18100 down 60.50 points at 8:10 AM

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Daily Report 3-May-23

Wall Street seen correction over 1% as worries over regional banks continues, more regional banks like FRC could be in-line for some financial trouble.

US Fed decision tonight, fed fund rate seeing probability of 87.7% probability of 25-bps rate hike.  ADP Non-farm employment change & ISM services PMI.

Crude oil down by 5% overnight as fresh concern on economic worries and supply exceeding demand putting pressure.

VIX @ 11.90: expect to increase further towards 14 level.

Approach on Indices: Indices are in overbought zone, going into US fed event today, we expect volatility and move of over 1% – 2% tomorrow on reaction to decision & commentary.  Going into trade today – market cues are mixed.

Market View: Today trade will be in anticipation and positioning ahead of event outcome tomorrow.  We see indices near upper-end of the range and time to sell-on-rise and we believe market will give small and fast correction in this zig-zag move.

SGX Nifty @ 18143 down 77.50 points at 8:30 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 2-May-23

Wall Street rallied on Friday and yesterday witness some profit booking as all eyes are on US Fed meeting outcome on 3-May-23.

US regulator seizes First Republic bank and sell assets to JP Morgan chase & Co on Monday, in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. banking failure.

GST Revenue Collection for April Highest Ever at Rs 1.87 Lakh Crore, GST Collection for March 2023 was at 1.60 lakh cores and April 2022 was at 1.67 lakh crores.

VIX @ 10.95: historic low level of VIX, remains our only concern.

Approach on Indices: Indices are trading in overbought zone, further rally from current level needs to be supported by positive trigger and short covering.  Nifty resistance zone 18137 / 18199 & Banknifty resistance zone 44020 / 44151 level.  Nifty support level @ 17842 & Banknifty key support level @ 42603.

Stocks in focus: KOTAKBANK, EICHERMOT, IDFCFIRSTB & RELIANCE.

SGX Nifty @ 18240.50 Vs Friday’s closing of 18112.15 at 8:05 AM

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