Month: May 2023

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 31-May-23

Wall Street closed mixed as U.S. lawmaker oppose deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling limit, market gets support from NVIDIA as the chipmaker company entered rare club of $1 trillion valuation.

Crude oil down 4% overnight as market now factors in another 25-bps rate hike by US Fed on 14-Jun-23.  WTI Crude oil below $70 & Brent crude below $75.

MSCI changes will be effective today, expect major volatility in last 30 minutes.  KOTAKBANK, HAL, MAXHEALTH & SONACOMS in focus.

China’s manufacturing PMI for May shrinks further, puts question on economic recovery post re-opening from stringent lock-down.

Approach on Indices: Indices trading near resistance zone after rally on Monday & Tuesday, going into trade on Wednesday is indicating 60 – 70 points gap-down opening, we expect profit booking to accelerate around Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 support level.

SGX Nifty @ 18661.50 down 68.50 points at 8:15 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
31-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 30-May-23

Banknifty made new fresh life time high as global cues helped passed 44151, previous high.  Banknifty – 11 stocks were higher and ICICIBANK was only in red by 0.27% cut.

Wall Street was closed on 29-May-23 on Memorial Day.  DOW30 futures is little changes after rally on Friday.

Details of U.S. debt deal will provide further cues to market, fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 58.4% probability of 25-bps rate hike.

F&O data: FII net long position in index futures at 29636 contracts, long: short position at 60.21%:39.79% indicates overbought zone.  Nifty PCR @ 1.33 Vs 1.37.

Approach on Indices: Yesterday’s rally can be considered as fresh breakout, but F&O data do indicate probability of correction before next up move is seen.  Fresh entry on Nifty preferred around 18458 / 18498 & on Banknifty @ 44018 & 43781.

SGX Nifty @ 18700.50 up 10.50 8:25 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
30-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 29-May-23

Wall Street rallied on Friday as news of U.S. getting on consensus on debt deal.  Monday U.S. market will remain close along with European market.

SGX Nifty indicate almost 1% higher on news of U.S. debt deal reached through.  Banknifty will open at fresh life-time high.  Mid-cap & Small-cap index will be at life-time high.

Corporate earnings season is near to end, stocks in focus will be IT & Banks.  Some profit booking expected after gap-up opening.

F&O data: FII are now long on index futures by 31909 contracts.  Nifty PCR @ 1.37 Vs 1.11 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.18 Vs 0.90 previous are very near to overbought zone.

Approach on Indices: Nifty opening around 18650 & Banknifty opening around 44300 can be considered as fresh breakout and Friday’s closing will act as support level for near term.  

Market View: Rally on back of news of U.S. debt deal is a relief rally according to us and we expect profit booking on gap-up opening over next 2 days, as US & European market will be closed on Monday.  We would find opportunity and prefer stock rotation which has underperformed so far and has potential.

SGX Nifty @ 18707 up 159 points at 8:45 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
29-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

27-May-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical view we have mentioned our expected target of 18499 which was achieved and Banknifty fell short of our target of Banknifty testing fresh high.  Indices manage to hold on to Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181, so we have maintained our bullish view.

Technical Insight

• Nifty RSI @ 67.49 & RSI average @ 63.38.  Nifty closing @ 18499 is almost at upper end of the range 18458 / 18498.  Nifty closing above 18499 for next 2 trading session can be considered as positive.

• Banknifty RSI @ 64.20 & RSI average @ 63.77.  Banknifty underperformed this week and it trading below 44151 its recent top made on 15-May-23.

Approach on Technical: Nifty has outperformed this week closing above 18458 level – recent top.  Banknifty underperformed and closed below 44151.

Going into trade on Monday SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening of around 100 points, Nifty @ 18499 & Banknifty @ 44018 – Friday’s closing to be considered as near-term support level for any long position for next week.

Fundamental Insight

1) Services Sector To Drive GDP Growth To 4.9% In Q4 FY23: ICRA
2) IMD Retains Forecast Of A ‘Normal’ Monsoon In 2023
3) FDI Declines 16% In FY23, First Year-On-Year Contraction In Decade
4) RBI Governor Das Says Won’t Be Surprised If India’s FY23 GDP Growth Exceeds 7%
5) Forex Reserves Drop By $6 Billion To $593.5 Billion

Equichain Wealth – Market View & Strategy

Technically, indices have closed at a level which can be considered as double top and fresh strength from current level could well open upside by next 2% – 3% on indices in next week.  As U.S. debt ceiling limit likely to hit by 1st week of June, any disappointing news or failure to finalize debt ceiling deal, market could react sharply lower.  We also see probability of profit booking even though deal gets through.  

Going into trade this week, we have been invested around 85% in our portfolio and we would prefer to reduce exposure by 5% – 10% on rally and deploy fresh fund only on major decline.  If next week market momentum remains positive with positive news flow, we believe market would provide opportunity for stock rotation within portfolio while keeping investment at same level.  In F&O segment we may prefer to go long with hedge position as we expect increase in volatility in next week.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
27-May-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – U.S. debt ceiling limit & impact on interest rate

Global Market – U.S. debt ceiling limit – Impact on Interest rate

This week we will discuss U.S. debt ceiling limit and its impact on interest rate.  We will discuss various scenarios and its potential impact on U.S. interest rate and its global impact on economy.  

U.S. debt ceiling limit – 3 probabilities

1) U.S. mange to raise debt ceiling limit
2) U.S. failed to raise debt by 1st week of June but manages to increase debt limit before 15-Jun-23 – When interest payment of $2 billion is due.
3) U.S. fails to raise debt ceiling limit before it hit the limit and eventually government defaults

Current U.S. debt ceiling limit is at $31.4 trillion

U.S. Congress voted to increase it by $2.5 trillion, which President Biden signed into effect on December 16, 2021. At that point, it was set at about $31.4 trillion. On January 19, 2023, the United States hit its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion.  U.S. debt ceiling limit is expected to hit by 1st June or by first week of June.  

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Currently market is factoring in U.S. to finalize a deal on debt ceiling and probability of 2nd and 3rd outcome is rare and not factored-in by market.

We do believe that in any case U.S. will increase the debt ceiling limit as failing to do so will have far reaching consequences.  We do believe it will put pressure on interest rate and there will be risk of banking crisis in U.S. regional banks as it remains venerable to high interest rate.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global Market – U.S. debt ceiling limit & impact on interest rate.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 26-May-23

Indian market recovered from lows to close flat as F&O expiry limit the downside.  BAJAJ-AUTO, ADANIENT, BHARTIARTL & ITC lead the recovery on Nifty.

U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years. 

Crude oil continues to trade lower on economic worries, Gold below $1950 & US 10-year bond yield @ 3.81%.

F&O data: FII starts June-23 series with net long position of 18787 contracts in Index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 1.11 Vs 1.00 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.90 Vs 0.76 previous. 

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to trade in range and currently trading near upper end of the range, Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181 remain key support for indices to remain in uptrend.  

Market View: Market starting new F&O series on light note as focus continue to remain on U.S. debt ceiling limit.  We will continue to focus on MSCI rebalancing on 31-May-23.  Stocks which will have net inflow will continue to remain upbeat until 31-May-23.

SGX Nifty @ 18434 down 32.50 points at 8:30 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
26-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 25-May-23

US FOMC meeting minutes – likely pause in Jun-23 meeting but no rate cut seen in near future.  Inflation still remains stubborn and above comfort level & jobs market is resilient.

With very little news on domestic front, Indian market taking cues from global market and uncertainty over U.S. debt ceiling talks impacting negative sentiment.

VIX @ 13.11: expected to move towards 14.

F&O data: FII net long: short position continues to remain around 50;50.  Nifty PCR @ 1.00 Vs 1.20 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.76 Vs 0.98 previous.

Approach on Indices: Yesterday’s closing does indicate further downside possible today.  Key level for Nifty will be at 18100 & Banknifty at 43200 on downside.  We expect volatility to continue as final F&O expiry for May 2023 series today.

SGX Nifty @ 18232 down 52 points at 8:35 AM

For Positional / delivery buying – Nifty @ 18131 & Banknifty @ 43181 could act as support level and provide fresh entry opportunity.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
25-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-May-23

U.S. market ended with cut of around 1% on major indices as deadlock of debt ceiling continues and no progress seen ahead of 1-Jun-23 deadline.

IT stocks rallied in last few days as F&O expiry seen some short covering rally supported by rally in U.S. market, expect IT stocks to remain weak today.

SGX Nifty indicating weak opening of around 70 – 80 points on weak global cues, F&O expiry could put pressure today.

F&O Data: FII net buy 8442 in index futures, net long: short position now remains at 50:50.  F&O data do indicate possibility of short-covering with 2 trading days for May-23 F&O expiry.

Approach on Indices: Going into trade on 24-May-23, SGX Nifty indicate weak opening of around 70 – 80 points, technical indication is mix, whereas F&O data is showing possibility of short covering.  One day before expiry could be highly volatile, we do expect big & decisive move today.  

SGX Nifty @ 18284 down 77.50 points at 8:15 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
24-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-May-23

Wall Street finished mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq helped by gains in Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, S&P 500 ended near flat as investors refrained from big bets ahead of a fresh round of talks about raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

Adani Stocks Market Cap Crosses Rs 10 Lakh Crore as Supreme Court Panel Report Drives Surge

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. gained the highest number of subscribers in March, outpacing the additions at Bharti Airtel Ltd., while Vodafone Idea Ltd. continued to lose users.

F&O data: FII continue to remain long around 48%, F&O data are mix ahead of final expiry for May-23 series.

Approach on Indices: We see Indices testing recent high this week as Nifty range seen at 18113 – 18498 & Banknifty range seen at 43181 – 44151.

SGX Nifty @ 18370 up 34.50 points at 8:30 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
23-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-May-23

Wall Street had another muted session, ended with minor cuts as debt ceiling crisis looms.   DOW30 futures trading with minor cuts going into fresh week, manufacturing & Services PMI, New home sales and US FOMC meeting minutes will be in focus.

RBI withdraws Rs 2000/- currency notes for circulation, will continue to remain legal tender even after 30-Sep-23, deadline set for exchange of Rs 2000/- notes, 10 notes at a time.

F&O expiry this week & US debt ceiling limit will be in focus.  

F&O data: FII net sell index futures by 5986.  Net long: short position remains at 47.64%:52.36%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.01 Vs 0.93 previous.  

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to remain in range of 18137 – 18498 & Banknifty in range of 43181 to 44151.  Banknifty continue to remain strong compared to Nifty.  

Market View: Major corporate results are out, few companies will be declaring their result this week, F&O expiry will drive volatility this week.  RBI ‘s decision to withdrawn Rs 2000/- currency note from circulation is expected to bring liquidity to banking system and will help keep interest rate lower.

SGX Nifty @ 18213 down 25 points at 8:25 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
22-May-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document