Month: April 2023

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 28-Apr-23

Indices close at month’s high on expiry with a rally on Nifty above 800 points and Banknifty above 3000 points compared to 29-Mar-23, previous F&O expiry.

Wall Street rallied as earnings boost sentiment as economic worries take a back seat.  Fed fund rate monitor tool indicate 84% probability of 25-bps rate hike on 3-May-23.

WIPRO announce 12000 crore buy-back @ 445 per share, result in-line with estimate.  AXISBANK result in-line with expectation with positive management commentary.

VIX @ 11.42: VIX consistently below 12 is misguiding in near term.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate 60 – 80 points gap-up opening as May F&O series begin.  Normally, we see built-up on first day of fresh series and expecting but we expect limited upside ahead of long weekend and US Fed meeting on 3-May-23.

Market View: So far earnings of IT sector are weak, banks have been able to deliver positive surprise.  We will continue to focus on stocks specific strategy.  

SGX Nifty @ 18066.50 up 73.50 points at 7:55 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 26-Apr-23

Wall Street down over 1%, NASDAQ fall 1.98% as fresh concerns of First Republic Bank as stocks prices of FRC ended 50% lower.  Google’s parent ALPHABET rose 4% after market hours as revenue beat.

Gujarat based companies is formulating policies for dividend, buy back, bonus & splitting fares of state PSU ‘s.

Companies announcing result today and will be in focus: SBILIFE, HDFCLIFE, BAJFINANCE, LTTS, INDUSTOWER & KPITTECH.

VIX @ 11.52: surprisingly low, continue to indicate low volatility.

Approach on Indices: After a decent run-up consolidation going into final two days of F&O expiry seems likely.  Banknifty in particular looks overbought from current level.  We expect volatility to increase ahead of F&O expiry and key event next week.

Market View: Corporate earnings will continue to drive market and we would prefer stock specific approach and use correction for fresh entry.  

Stocks in focus: Gujarat state PSU, DALBHARAT, BAJFINANCE & LTTS.  View of RELIANCE remains bullish post result.

SGX Nifty @ 17754 down 32.50 points at 8:00 AM

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26-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 25-Apr-23

Wall street had another quite session, NASDAQ underperform as market awaits tech earnings.  Crude moves higher, gold recovers from recent low & Dollar index at 101 level.

F&O data: FII added fresh long in index futures, net addition by 12272 contracts in index futures.  FII long: short position now stands at 43.79%:56.21%.  

Many corporate earnings in US & INDIA will continue to drive market and we expect some volatility ahead of F&O expiry on Thursday.

VIX @ 11.67: trading near lower end of the range.

Approach on Indices: with final F&O expiry this Thursday, indices do indicate further upside once as Banknifty has given positive break-out and Nifty near its high.  Any correction today or tomorrow could be considered as buying opportunity.

Stocks in focus: CANBK, AEGISCHEM, TITAN & CENTURYTEX.

SGX Nifty @ 17779 up 20 points at 8:05 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Apr-23

RELIANCE & ICICIBANK will react to its result, RELIANCE result was better than estimate mainly on O2C segment.  

ICICIBANK recorded highest ever NIM margin @ 4.90%, ICICIBANK result was positive and in-line with estimate.

HDFCBANK & HDFC merger: RBI provide clarity on SLR, CRR & LCR.  RBI provides relief on HDFCLIFE holding post-merger and priority sector lending.

VIX @ 11.63: trading below 12, trend reversal likely towards 14

Approach on Indices: Today indies will be reacting set of good news.  Nifty @ 17799 & 17842 remains resistance level.  Banknifty at 42603 could act as target resistance level.

Market View: we see risk / reward ratio favourable in RELIANCE, while ICICIBANK & HDFCBANK could witness profit booking after positive opening.  WIPRO to announce another buy-back on 27-Apr-23 along with result could help relief rally in IT stocks.

Stocks in focus: RELIANCE, HDFCLIFE, WIPRO, LTTS & BHARTIARTL. 

SGX Nifty @ 17697.50 up 58 points at 8:20 AM

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24-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Research Report

Global Market – US Fed will pause or hike another 25-bps?

Global Market – US Fed to pause or hike rate by another 25-bps?

This week we will discuss whether US Fed will pause or hike rate by another 25-bps as widely expected by market.  All major data has now been out which does indicate slowdown, now US GDP for Q1 for 2023 will be released on 27-Apr-23.

Key Economic data to be released in next week

1) CB Consumer Confidence
2) Advance GDP q/q
3) Unemployment claims
4) Core PCE Price Index
5) Employment Cost Index.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Now the focus will shift to US Fed meeting on 3-May-23, from 21-Apr-23 to 3-May-23 till Fed decision is out is currently under black out period.  So now there will be no comment from US Fed members and major economic data will be last quarter advance GDP data and core PCE price index which could provide further cues.

We do believe, US Fed could surprise by temporary pause as it is done by RBI MPC meeting.  So incoming data will have its impact and currently fed fund monitor tool indicate 89.1% probability of 25-bps rate hike as on 21-Apr-23.  Even if there is rate hike by US Fed, we expect commentary to be dovish.

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Weekly Reports

22-Apr-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

In our technical insight we did expect consolidation on indices and move this week was as narrow as it could get.  It continues to remain stocks specific move as we are in result season.  Last week started with reaction on INFY’s weak disappointing result & guidance and positive result from HDFCBANK.

Technical Insight

• Nifty move from 16918 to 17842, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 17489 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 17271.  Nifty above 17842 could indicate fresh break-out and open further upside.

• Banknifty rally from 39273 to 42603, retracement at 38.2% level comes at 41331 & 61.8% retracement level comes at 40545.  Banknifty above 42603 could open upside move towards fresh high of 44151.

Approach on Technical: Last week consolidation should continue next week as we are going into final F&O expiry for April 2023 series with steady technical setup.

Nifty @ 17271 & Banknifty @ 40545 are important level and should hold for uptrend to continue.  Our base view is that indices would take support at 38.2% level and resume uptrend.

Fundamental Insight

1) HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger: RBI Grants No Exemptions On CRR, SLR Requirements
2) RBI Says Probability Of Lower Inflation Rising, Pegs Q4 GDP Growth At 5.4%
3) MPC Minutes: Members Continue To Emphasise On Pause, Not Pivot
4) Reliance Industries Q4 Results: Profit Jumps 19.8% Beating Estimates On Higher Margin
5) ICICI Bank Q4 Results: Net Profit Up 30% YoY

Market View & Strategy

Is this the “calm before the storm” or not is tough to answer but we surely believe that volatility is going to increase in coming weeks as US Fed meeting on 3-May-23 is critical and important event.  

Our strategy this week would be to deploy fund which is currently available, but only if there is some correction and there is clear break-out supported by domestic and global cues.  

Our broad view remains positive and would prefer to have stocks specific approach within basket of stocks within our various. concept list.  Monday’s opening will be guided by RELIANCE & ICICIBANK result and F&O expiry will lead to increase volatility which could provide good reshuffling opportunity.

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22-Apr-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 21-Apr-23

Wall Street had another flat to negative session with TESLA shares down 9.7% as market south clarity on interest rate.

RBI MPC policy 6-Apr-23 – minutes released: RBI Governor sees significant change in economic activity since February.  Banking crisis and OPEC+ decision of production cut add to uncertainty.

HCLTECH Q4FY23 result in-line with street estimate, after disappointing TCS & INFY numbers.  HCLTECH result could provide stability in IT stocks and limit the downside.

VIX @ 11.94:  surprisingly low, expect to move towards 14.

Approach on Indices: last 4 days of consolidation has manage to close between RSI & RSI average on both indices.  We see correction on Nifty @ 17479 & Banknifty @ 41331 would provide fresh entry opportunity or fresh long on Nifty above 17842 & Banknifty above 42603.

Market View: Today SGX Nifty indicate another flat opening with some built-up could be seen ahead of RELIANE result today & ICICIBANK result on Saturday.  Market would react to both this result on Monday.  IT stocks could see some relief short covering after HCLTECH result.

Stocks in focus: INFY, HCLTECH, LTTS, OBEROIRLTY, AXISBANK.

SGX Nifty @ 17669.50 up 4.50 points at 8:40 AM

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21-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 20-Apr-23

Wall Street had another quite session as market continues to focus on next move by US Fed.  NETFLIX fell more than 3% after reporting mix quarters.  

TESLA result below market estimate, posted lowest quarterly margin in 2-years.  Musk says – better to focus on volume and harvest that margin for future.

Crude oil prices are softening after steep rise seen post OPEC+ nations surprise production cut at the beginning of this month.  Gold prices sees softening.

VIX @ 12.15: continue to remain around 12 – 13, surprisingly low.

F&O data: FII activity remains muted, long: short position in index futures at 36.02%:63.98%

Approach on Indices: broad trends remain positive; Nifty @ 17479 & Banknifty @ 41331 are seen as key support level for fresh long entry.  Indices in last 3 days has been consolidating after up move seen in previous 2 weeks.

Stocks in focus: JSWSTEEL, TATASTEEL, IRCTC & AVANTIFEED.

SGX Nifty @ 17693.50 up 40 points at 8:05 AM

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20-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 19-Apr-23

Wall Street had another quite session as J&J and Goldman Sachs disappoints while tech stocks supported.  US market closed flat as market awaits further clarity on interest rate by US Fed.

Government increase windfall tax on Crude oil production to 6400/- per ton from Nil as on 4-Apr-23.  No windfall tax on Diesel, Petrol & ATF.

Market going into Wednesday with no major cues from domestic or global market.

VIX @ 12.08: trading near lower end of the range.

Approach on Indices: Indices are stuck in narrow range as market wait for clear directional move.  Market in last 8 – 12 trading session has rallied by 5% – 7% without any major correction.   Any consolidation / correction would be healthy and would prefer to take fresh entry.  Nifty @ 17489 & Banknifty @ 41331 are levels we are watching out for.

Market View: Global cues are muted as next action by US Fed keeps market on sideways, so far corporate earnings in IT has been disappointing and many companies are due to announce result in next 6 – 8 trading days.

SGX Nifty @ 17714.50 down 7 points at 8:15 AM


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19-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Report 18-Apr-23

Wall Street had another flat to positive session as market awaits further clarity from corporate earnings and US Fed decision.  So far, most of major US Banks came with result beating analyst estimate.

Chinese economy recovery on track as Q1 GDP beats estimate, metal and commodity stocks in focus.

VIX @ 12.26: expect to move to 14 level.

Approach on Indices: Indices are in correction / consolidation mode, Nifty @ 17479 & Banknifty @ 41331 could act as support level and provide entry.  SGX Nifty indicate mild down opening as there is no major news or global cues.

Market View: This week our strategy is to focus on stocks which has so far underperformed in recent rally and do have potential for catch-up rally.  We would focus on Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks.

Stocks in Focus: HINDALCO, BANKBARODA, ABCAPITAL, EXIDEIND, INDIANB, VOLTAS & JUBLINGREA.

SGX Nifty @ 17729 down 34.50 points at 8:05 AM

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18-Apr-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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