Month: March 2023

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 10-Mar-23

Wall Street was down by 1.66% to 2.05% on weak US Economic data, SVB financial lead rout in banks ahead of Friday’s jobs data.

SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ:SIVB) slumped more than 55% after the bank announced a $2.25 billion equity raise after revealing a $1.8B net loss and delivered negative annual and first quarter guidance amid the impact from higher interest rates.

Bank of Japan kept interest rate unchanged at -0.10% VS estimate of -0.10%.

VIX @ 12.72: expected to bounce to 14 – 16 range.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate 150-points gap-down opening on weak global cues.  Indices likely to open around support level on Nifty @ 17462 & Banknifty @ 41070.

SGX Nifty @ 17454.50 down 163.50 points at 8:40 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 9-Mar-23

Wall Street ended mix after US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony Day-2.  Powell: Haven’t made any decision about March meeting, will be guided by incoming data.

US Economic data: ADP Non-farm employment change came at 242k Vs estimate of 197k.   JOLTS Jobs opening @ 10.82 M Vs estimate of 10.58 M.

F&O data: FII long: short position at 24.92%:75.08%.  Nifty PCR @ 1.27 Vs 1.12 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.27 Vs 1.00 previous.  F&O data looks overbought in near term as weekly index options expiry today.

VIX @ 12.45: at extremely low level, could move towards 14.

Approach on Indices: In last 3 trading session, Indices gained over 2%, but indices have seen correction / consolidation on intraday basis.  Nifty range seen between 17700 – 17800 & Banknifty range seen 41400 – 41800 as weekly Index options expires today.

Market View: Index continue to trade in range, but momentum seen picking up in mid-cap & small-cap stocks.  Today market likely to correct / consolidate.  

SGX Nifty @ 17789.50 down 10.50 points at 8:05 AM

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9-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 8-Mar-23

Wall Street witness sharp fall after US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony, his comment does raise concern on interest rate peak could be higher as compared to December estimate of 5.61%.

Indian met department expect strong heat wave this summer, power stocks in focus as demand in summer could surpass all previous records.

VIX @ 12.27: heading towards 14 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate opening around 17700, Nifty could find support @ 17591 & Banknifty @ 41070, we expect indices to take support from this level and expect bounce.

Market View: as global sentiment has impacted due to US Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony and going into central bank’s policy which starts from 9th & 10th March by Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

SGX Nifty @ 17700 down 153 points at 8:55 AM

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8-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-Mar-23

Indian market rally on Friday was triggered by short covering led by FII.  ADANI group stocks continue its positive momentum after promoter stake sale of 15446 crores.

The Chinese government said over the weekend that it was targeting economic growth of 5% this year, up from 3% in 2022. But the forecast was regarded as softer than analyst expectations.

US Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies on 7th & 8th March 2023.  Indian market to remain close on 7-Mar-23.

VIX @ 12.18: expect to increase to 14 level.

Approach on Indices: Nifty likely to test 17798 & Banknifty could test 41979 this week.  Today’s gap up opening could witness some profit booking but we expect positive momentum to continue.

Stocks in focus: HAL, INDUSINDBK, CANBK, CONCOR, TATACHEM & IDFCFIRSTBK.

SGX Nifty @ 17712.50 up 80.50 points at 8:30 AM

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6-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Weekly Reports

4-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

We have turned cautious going into trade this week and right so as Nifty made fresh low since Hindenburg report on 24-Jan-23 & Budget on 1-Feb-23.  Nifty manage to hold on to 200-DMA & Banknifty manage to hold psychological level of 40000 level.  If we exclude Friday’s gain on Indian indices, most indices would be within 1% gain or loss, Friday’s rally was supported by short covering.

Approach on Technical: Friday’s move was supported by short covering as Nifty & Banknifty manage to hold on to critical support level.  

We believe, that market has formed near term bottom on Nifty @ 17255 & Banknifty @ 39970.  We expect indices to test upper end of the range this week and any consolidation could be utilized to build up long position.

Fundamental Insight

Here are some of the highlights of the eventful week where Indices manage to hold on to lower end of the range and ADANI group stocks rallied improved the sentiment as promoter manage to sell stake.

• India’s GDP Growth Slows To 4.4% In Q3; Pegged At 7% For Full Year
• GDP Growth May Exceed 7% This Fiscal, Says CEA Nageswaran
• Axis Bank Concludes Citi Retail Business Acquisition At Rs 11,603 Crore
• Prices of domestic cooking gas cylinders have been hiked by up to Rs 50 across India with effect from March 1.
• GST Collections In February Dip Below Rs 1.5 Lakh Crore
• Former Supreme Court judge AM Sapre, tasked to oversee a probe into the recent Adani Group share crash and other regulatory aspects for stock markets, panel to submit its report in a sealed cover within two months.
• India’s Forex Reserves Fall $325 Million To $560.94 Billion

Market View & Strategy

We believe market has prices in negative news and downside could be in form of consolidation and in case of any positive trigger we see more upside potential from current level. 

We would add long position on any correction / consolidation and prefer to deploy fully in range of 95% to 100% this week and play long.  We will review our bullish view if Indices go below this week low and any adverse news from two key reason mentioned here, we expect market to consolidate and gradual up move till next corporate earnings season that starts from 2nd week of April 2023.

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4-Mar-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Research Report

Global Market – Key challenges for global central banks

This week we will discuss the challenges the central banks would face globally as next round of central banks meeting starts from next week with Bank of Japan meeting outcome on 10-Mar-23.  High core CPI inflation will next big challenge for central banks as their obsession to control inflation continues.

We would focus on BOJ, ECB & US Fed meeting outcome as we believe, their decision will impact decision larger global narrative as their greater impact due to various reason.

1) Bank of Japan – Meeting outcome on 9-Mar-23 & Statement on 10-Mar-23
2) ECB meeting outcome on 16-Mar-23
3) US Fed meeting outcome on 22-Mar-23

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Any major change in policy by BOJ will impact global liquidity as BOJ has adopted negative interest rate since February 2016.

US Fed post meeting conference will and guidance of future action will be an important event as more hawkish US Fed will challenge economic activity which is already showing sings of slowdown.  Key challenge for US Fed will be to manage soft landing.

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Global Market – Key challenges for global central banks.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 3-Mar-23

Adani Portfolio companies complete ₹15,446 crore secondary equity transaction with #GQG Partners.  SC names panel to review investor protection norms.

F&O data: FII Long: Short position at 14.80%:85.20%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.91 Vs 0.92 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.76 Vs 1.14 previous.  F&O data indicate highly oversold zone.

VIX @ 12.97: within comfortable range.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate gap-up opening of around 100 points.  Technical indicate mix pictures as indices continue to trade in narrow range.  Nifty range 17325 – 17591 & Banknifty range seen at 39970 – 41567.

Market View: broad market continues to trade in narrow range as we see accumulation happening at lower level.  We believe, its time to remain cautiously optimistic as March 2023 will focus around central bank’s action.  Today positive opening cues comes from comment from Raphael Bostic – Atlanta Federal Reserve President.

SGX Nifty @ 17456.50 up 101.50 points at 8:40 AM

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3-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 2-Mar-23

Wall Street ended flat as concern interest rate continues, German CPI @ 0.8% Vs estimate of 0.5%.  

AXISBANK completes acquisition of CITI Bank ‘s India business at cost of 11603 crores.  Acquisition added 1.8 million credit card and deposit of 39900 crores.

GST Collection in February @ 1,49,577 crores, just short of 1.50 lakh crores, recorded 12% growth compared to previous year.

VIX @ 13: within comfortable range of 12.50 – 14

Approach on Indices: Nifty & Banknifty is managing to hold on to lower level and forming base, Nifty @ 17375 & Banknifty @ 39970 level.  F&O weekly option expiry today – expect short covering in 2nd half.

Market View: Market continue to play on positive domestic cues Vs concern on global cues.  We continue to focus on Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks with stocks specific story.  We believe, market is in accumulation zone till some near-term lows are held on as it forms double bottom.

SGX Nifty @ 17475.50 down at 8:40 AM

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2-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 1-Mar-23

India’s GDP for Q3FY23 came @ 4.4% Vs estimate of 4.7%.  Second advance estimate of FY23 GDP growth at 7%, unchanged at 7% in first advance estimate before Budget.

Domestic LPG price increase by Rs 50 per cylinder, commercial LPG price hiked by 350 per cylinder of 19 KG.

VIX @ 14.02: likely to test 16 again.

Approach on Indices: Technical setup is showing weakness, Banknifty below 39970 could test lower level @ 39286.  Nifty could test 17157.

Market View: India’s 10-year bond yield @ 7.46, could put pressure on Banking stocks today.  Currently market is in oversold zone and any positive trigger could result in short covering rally.  We continue to remain accumulation zone and have turned cautious.

SGX Nifty @ 17375.50 down 23.50 points at 8:30 AM

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1-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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