Month: March 2023

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 31-Mar-23

Wall Street was up around 1% – 2.5% in last 2 trading session as Indian market was closed on Thursday.  Wall Street witness relief rally as banking crisis fears ease.

Government To Borrow Rs 8.88 Lakh Crore In First Half Of FY24.  Gross borrowings for the full fiscal are pegged at Rs 15.43 lakh crore.

Gold & Silver trading near recent highs, Gold is trading just below $2000, crude oil rise around 8% – 10% from lows on supply disruption from middle-east and production cut from Russia.

VIX @ 13.63: cool-off below 14 could trigger short covering.

F&O data: FII net short position rises to 90.87% as start of fresh series.  Nifty PCR 1.05 Vs 0.80 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.94 Vs 0.91 previous.

Approach on Indices: Technical shows perfect base formation managing to hold lows of mid-March on Nifty @ 16825 & Banknifty @ 38613.  Major rally on above Nifty @ 17201 & Banknifty @ 40503.

SGX Nifty @ 17252 up 17 points compared to 17235 at 8:05 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 29-Mar-23

Today will be F&O expiry for March series as last trading day for current financial year 2022 – 23.

Wall Street in a relatively quite session ended with minor losses as there was no major news – positive or negative and no any economic data.

Market behavior in last few sessions as been quite surprising as any attempt of bounce in market is countered by selling pressure.  US Market is trading near or above level before SVB crisis begins on 9-Mar-23.  Indian market is trading below 9-Mar-23 level.

F&O data: FII after a day of short covering again added short position in Index futures with 156402 contract net short in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 0.80 Vs 0.85 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.91 Vs 0.76 previous.

Approach on Indices: F&O data shows built up on Nifty at 17000 strike price & Banknifty range seen from 39500 – 40000.  Technical & F&O data shows another calm day, we see limited downside.

SGX Nifty @ 17000 up 9.50 points at 8:00 AM

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Daily Reports

Daily Report 28-Mar-23

Wall Street closed higher as relief rally following First Citizens Bank Shares struck a deal to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank.  Nasdaq end the day with minor cuts on profit booking in APPLE, META & MICROSOFT.

Global cues are stable as Banking crisis worries likely to have calm down.  S&P500 is trading above the level compared to 8-Mar-23, a day before SVB crisis came into focus.

Further short covering in F&O segment by FII could trigger short covering rally going into final F&O expiry.

VIX @ 15.44: likely to remain in 14 – 16 range.

F&O data: FII covered 36899 contracts in Index futures, client was net seller by 39771 contracts in Index futures.

Approach on Indices: SGX indicative opening is 50 points higher, Indices trading near lower end of the range, we expect short covering rally ahead of final F&O expiry tomorrow.  Major rally on Nifty above 17199 & Banknifty above 40142 expected.

SGX Nifty @ 17060.50 up 47.50 points at 8:20 AM

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28-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 27-Mar-23

Wall Street recovered from initial weak cues on DEUTSCHE Bank as German chancellor assured about financial of DEUTSCHE Bank.  

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has closed door meeting with all key regulator – no decision outcome will be shared with public.

Last trading day for current financial year will be 29-Mar-23 and 31-Mar-23 will last trading day for calendar year but trade in Equity & FO segment will be settled on 3-Apr-23.

VIX @ 15.24: expected VIX to be in 14 – 16 range.

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.78 Vs 0.86 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.72 Vs 0.70 previous.  FII net short remains at 13.33%:86.67%.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate positive opening, likely to recover loss made in last hour on Friday, no major global cues, technical looks sides ways.  Nifty @ 16925 & Banknifty @ 39054 to act as support level

SGX Nifty @ 17005.50 up 86 points at 8:10 AM

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27-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Research Report

Global Market – Banking Crisis in US & Europe – Domino effect started?

Global Market – Banking crisis in US & Europe – Domino effect started?

This week we will discuss whether this ongoing crisis will have domino effect on US & European banking system and more banks will follow.  This week we will also focus on US Fed & Bank of England monitory policy decision.  Big question remains that whether market will witness domino effect in US & European ongoing banking crisis.

What is Domino effect?

“a cumulative effect produced when one event initiates a succession of similar events.”1 The term usually refers to something that is inevitable or at least very likely to happen, due to causal events that have already occurred.

Banking crisis in US & Europe – Domino effect started?

• 9-Mar-23: SVB report loss of $1.8 billion due to distress bond sale.
• 10-Mar-23: FDIC took control of SVB and closed SVB and FDIC insured depositors
• 12-Mar-23: FDIC shut down SIGNATURE BANK.
• 9-Mar-23: US regulator shut down SILVERGATE Bank – key bank in crypto world struggling after FTX and Genesis fall.
• 15-Mar-23: Credit Suisse as much as 30%, Swiss National Bank came to its rescue.  
• 19-Mar-23: UBS agrees to buy Credit Suisse in an emergency deal aimed at stemming financial market panic.
• 16-Mar-23: First Republic Bank witness sharp sell-off as customer withdraw deposits.  US Big 11 banks deposit $30 billion unsecured deposit.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

Latest bank to show stress is DEUTSCHE Bank which is German bank and ECB will be central bank is focus.  On Friday, ECB ‘s Lagarde told EU leaders ECB fully equipped to provide liquidity to euro area financial system, if needed – RTRS

Financial crisis in US & Europe is evolving, it will be difficult to predict the quantum of problem and market reaction to it, ECB raised interest rate by 50-bps on 16-Mar-23, US Fed raises interest rate 25-bps on 22-Mar-23 & BOE raised interest rate on 23-Mar-23.  

Their comment on future rate hike has surely changed and it could be sign of pause as we see interest rate to peak around current level.

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Global Market – Banking Crisis in US & Europe – Domino effect started?.pdf
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Weekly Reports

25-Mar-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Going into trade this week, global central banks announced coordinated action to provide liquidity and stability to banking system before Asian market opened on Monday morning.  Market continue to trade in narrow range with weekly move in range of 2.5% – 3%.

Approach on Technical: Indices continue to trade in narrow range on back on weak news flow from global banks impacted sentiment globally.  In our 11-Mar-23, we mentioned that at time when news flow drives the market technical may take a back seat.

Nifty above 17210 & Banknifty above 40200 could open fresh upside and Nifty below 16825 & Banknifty below 39050 could trigger further downside.  We believe Nifty @ 16669 / 16747 & Banknifty @ 37386 are bargain buying level and turn cautious once VIX goes above 16.

Fundamental Insight

1) Union finance budget for 2023 – 24 / Finance bill passed with 64 amendments
2) Forex Reserves Rise At The Fastest Pace In Four Months
3) RBI fortnightly bulletin – for 24-Feb-23 to 10-Mar-23

Market View & Strategy

Global news continues to drive market sentiment, banking crisis in US & Europe continue to dampen sentiment while regulator keeps on providing support & confidence to banking system.  Market this week continue to trade in range.  

We continue to maintain our stance of last week, what could be bargain buying level – Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37247 are the level we believe are good bargain buying entry level with positional view.  Any speculative position, we would prefer to have complete hedge position as we anticipate highly eventful next week or 2 weeks going into financial year end.

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25-Mar-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Mar-23

Wall Street ended with positive gains, corrected from day’s high on growth uncertainty.  Wall Street recovering from yesterday’s fall after treasury secretary Janet Yellen ‘c comment.

ECB hikes rate by 25-bps to 4.25% in-line with market expectation.  BOE 9-members voted 7-2 in favor of rate hike.  BOE guided for sharp fall in prices in April to June period, despite inflation jump to 10.4% in February.

Accenture result: lowered next year growth guidance from 8% – 11% to 8% – 10%.  ACCENTURE to cut 19000 jobs.  Accenture Q2 result was above market estimate.  

VIX @ 14.49: continues to trade in 14 – 16 range.

Approach on Indices: Indices continue to trade in range as any up-move attempt is countered by selling pressure.  Nifty range seen 16900 – 17200 & Banknifty range seen 39100 – 40000.

SGX Nifty @ 17048 down 35.50 points at 8:15 AM

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24-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-Mar-23

Wall Street down by around 1.60% – 1.65%, as late sell-off seen post treasury secretary Jennet Yellen ‘s comment on blanket insurance on Bank deposit.

US Fed hikes rate by 25-bps to 4.75% – 5.00%.  In line with market estimate.  Fed median forecast for 2023 seen at 5.1% and by end of 2024 median rate @ 4.3%

Fed statement removed reference about “ongoing increases” will be appropriate and replaced with “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” 

VIX @ 14.81: expect to further cool-off towards 14.

F&O data: FII net short by 196378 contracts in index futures.  FII net short is 36% of entire outstanding position in Index futures.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, Indices continue to trade in oversold zone.  US Fed outcome and Wall Street overnight failed to provide much needed trigger for short covering.  Nifty range seen @ 17100 – 17200 & Banknifty range seen around 39900 – 40200 due to weekly options expiry.

SGX Nifty @ 17142.50 down 15.50 points at 8:30 AM

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23-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Mar-23

Wall Street recovered as market digest recent news and fears ease, TESLA recovered on better-than-expected forward guidance, close @ $197.58 up by 7.82%.

US Fed meeting outcome tonight, Indian market will react to outcome tomorrow, US Fed expected to increase 25-bps and commentary will be key driver.

Asian market rally ahead of US Fed event as risk-on sentiment continues.

F&O data: FII net short by 195500 contracts in index futures, it is 35% of total outstanding position in Index futures.

Approach on Indices: Indices in last few days was trading lower on back of banking crisis, bounce back from oversold zone.  Any positive trigger from US Fed meeting could lead short covering rally on Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 41567.

SGX Nifty @ 17180.50 up 36.50 points at 8:40 AM

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22-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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Daily Report 21-Mar-23

Wall Street had relief rally as FRC continues to decline, FRC closed at fresh low @ $12.18 down by $10.85 or 47.11%.  UBS recovers from early correction on fear as Credit Suisse takeover could downgrade.

Gold touches $2000, seen back post Russia-Ukraine crisis as financial crisis feared.  Gold prices in India touches above 60000 level mark.

US Fed meeting 22-Mar-23: market factoring 72.3% probability of 25-bps hike.  US Fed chair commentary will be important to watch on backdrop on ongoing banking crisis.  

F&O data: Nifty PCR @ 0.83 Vs 0.87 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.78 Vs 0.83 previous.  FII net long now at all-time low of 8.62%.

Approach on Indices: SGX nifty indicate 70 – 80 points gap-up opening, Nifty @ 16669 & Banknifty @ 37387 remains bargain buying level depends on event outcome 22-Mar-23, Indian market will react on 23-Mar-23.  Indices likely to consolidate in near term.

SGX Nifty @ 17099 up 74.50 points at 7:45 AM 

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21-Mar-23 Daily-Report.pdf
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