Month: February 2023

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 8-Feb-23

RBI MPC Meeting today at 10:00 AM.  Market expectation of 25-bps rate hike stands around 70%.  RBI Governor comment will be key.

FII – F&O data: FII in Index futures net long: short now at 15.95%:84.05%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.81 Vs 0.96 previous

VIX @ 14.12: move below 14 could trigger short covering.

Approach on Indices: Indices could have directional move after today’s RBI MPC meeting outcome.  Indices are poised to move higher unless there is any major negative.  F&O data do indicate scope of short covering, technical remains mix.

Market View: all eyes will be on RBI MPC decision and RBI governor commentary.  Market has factored in 25-bps rate hike, any positive surprise could trigger sharp short covering rally.

SGX Nifty @ 17799.50 up 69.50 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
8-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 7-Feb-23

Indian market ended yesterday with minor losses as strong jobs data on Friday dented sentiment.  ADANI groups stocks witness some recovery.  Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 ended in green.

Wall Street ended with minor cuts as US 10-year bond yield move above 3.60% and US Fed chair Jerome Powell ‘s speech today in focus.

Quarterly result after-market hours – TATASTEEL & LICHSGFIN disappoints.  HINDALCO subsidiary NOVELIS reported 95% in consolidated profit.

RBI MPC meeting outcome tomorrow at 10:00 AM.  Market expecting 25-bps rate hike and commentary to be positive.

VIX @ 14.69: comfortable till it stays below 16.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicating gap-up opening of around 60 – 80 points, likely to test 41999 & 42200 while strong support remains at 41024.  We expect upside to be capped as upside trigger seen to be limited.

Market View: Metal stocks could open lower on weak TATASTEEL & HINDALCO subsidiary result.  IT stocks could remain under pressure, Banking stocks could attempt one more round of rally as SBIN & ICICIBANK remains top pick

SGX Nifty @ 17861.50 up 100.50 points at 7:55 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
7-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 6-Feb-23

Wall Street halted its winning streak, as better than expected jobs non-farm payroll data & unemployment rate @ 3.4%, reduced the hopes of pause in near future.

SBIN result beats all estimate, profit rises by 68.5% on higher NII and lower provision.  Exposure in ADANI group stocks at 0.88% of total loan book.

Government to convert AGR dues of Vodafone Idea dues into Rs 16000 crores equity.  Government increase windfall tax on Crude oil production & Petrol & Diesel products.

VIX @ 14.40: within comfortable level below 16.

Approach on Indices: Indices likely to face resistance around Nifty @ 18041 & Banknifty @ 42200 this week.  Looking at VIX – indicates market volatility to reduce substantially.   Banknifty chart better place compared to Nifty.

Market View: RBI MPC meeting on 8-Feb-23 and reaction to SBIN result is expected to be positive in opening trade.  ITC & TATAPOWER are other two result which could have positive reaction.

SGX Nifty @ 17826 down 14 points at 7:55 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
6-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

4-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review:

This week was highly volatile and eventful, Union finance Budget on 1-Feb-23 was continuation of capex budget – a strategy followed by Government of Indian since COVID budget which started with stimulus package post COVID and expansionist since 1-Feb-21 Budget.  

Approach on Technical: We believe, technical levels do tend to go beyond chart, support and resistance level.  

VIX @ 14.40: We see volatility to reduce substantiality in coming weeks as scheduled event such as Budget, US Fed, BOE & ECB meeting are over & RBI MPC meeting on 8-Feb-23 is awaited.  Nifty range for this week seen @ 17580 to 18041 & Banknifty range seen 41024 to 42200.

Market View & Strategy

All key events, Union Budget, US Fed, BOE & ECB meeting were positive for market.  RBI MPC policy meeting on 8-Feb-23, we expect first status quo or unchanged in policy by RBI MPC, and expected to be positive for market.  ADANI news will continue to drive the market sentiment, but we feel this news have mostly played on.

We would be positioning ourselves with a cautious view and uncertainty and the main reason for this is that there is no substantial trigger for upside.  We have positive view on budget but in near term or for the month of February, we see upside limited and downside risk in case of any news flow. 


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
4-Feb-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – Soft landing of US Economy likely

Global Market- Soft landing of US Economy likely

This week, we will discuss the outcome of all 3 central bank ‘s and their comment on future guidance.  We will also discuss US Jobs data.  We see central bank ‘s and market are preparing in for soft landing.  Central banks continues its monitory tightening policy while key data continue to remain mix with last quarter US GDP data came at 2.90% growth.

US Fed meeting outcome on 1-Feb-23

• US Fed raises rates by 25-bps to 4.50% – 4.75%.
• US Fed chair Jerome Powell: couple more rate hikes expected.
• Fed futures still sees price cut this year, median forecast for 2023 @ 4.486%.

US Economic data – this week

• ADP non-farm employment change: Actual @ 106k Vs estimate @ 176k, weak data
• ISM manufacturing PMI: Actual @ 47.4 Vs estimate @ 48, weak data.
• JOLTS Jobs openings: Actual @ 11.01 M Vs estimate @ 10.28M, strong data.
• Average hourly earnings: Actual @ 0.3% Vs estimate @ 0.30%, in-line with estimate.
• Non-farm employment change: Actual @ 517k Vs estimate @ 196k, very strong data.
• Unemployment change: Actual @ 3.4% Vs estimate @ 3.6%, very strong data.
• ISM Services PMI: Actual @ 55.2 Vs estimate @ 50.50, strong data.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

This week was very busy as there were 3 key central banks, most of the meeting outcome was in-line with market expectation and commentary was also in-line with expectation.  Some US economic data were soft where as some economic data came in strong.  

Soft landing: inflation to cool-off with very minimum economic pain.  Recession could be mild without any major impact of jobs, economic and corporate earnings.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global market -Soft landing of US Economy likely.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 3-Feb-23

ADANI group stocks continue its rout as indices manage to recovery from early loss.  NSE placed ADANI group stocks in ASM category.

DJSI – removes ADANI group stocks from sustainability index.  

Wall Street rallied – META announce strategy and make 2023 as “Year of Efficiency” and announced $40 billion buy back.  

APPLE next quarterly result miss estimates, AMAZON disappoints and provided weak guidance.

VIX @ 15.73: below 16, continue to trade around critical zone.

Approach on Indices: Indices may attempt another round of bounce to level on Nifty @ 17775 & Banknifty @ 41597.  Currently indices are in correction zone and any bounce will be opportunity to reduce exposure.

Market View: SGX Nifty indicating around 60 points gap-up opening, market has lots of news to digest going into today’s trade.  Concern on ADANI group stocks will continue, NASDAQ is near to around 20% up from its December 2022 lows.  APPLE & AMAZON disappoints as economic outlook remains weak.

SGX Nifty @ 17710 up 71 points at 8:00 AM.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
3-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 2-Feb-23

Indian market rallied immediately after Budget speech was concluded as Nifty near 18000 and Banknifty tested 42000 level in spot market.  

Budget continues its expansion policy with 10 lakh capex for FY24, Railway allocated 2.40 lakh cores, highest in 10-years.

ADANI group cancelled ADANIENT – FPO yesterday evening after massive fall seen yesterday after Credit Suisse statement of not accepting ADANI group bonds.

US Fed raises rates by 25-bps to 4.50% – 4.75%, in-line with market expectation.  Wall Street rallied after Fed chair Jerome Powell press conference.  

Fed will continue to make decision meeting by meeting based on incoming data.  Full effect of rapid tightening yet to be felt.

VIX @ 16.78: need to be cautious till it remains above 16.

Approach on Indices: trend remains downward going into trade today, with weekly F&O expiry today, short covering or some buying can be expected around Nifty @ 17400 & Banknifty around 39500.

SGX Nifty @ 17578 down 122 points at 8:05 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
2-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 1-Feb-23

ADANIENTER FPO subscribed fully, market sees sign of relief.  FPO participation seen from family office of Indian corporates.

GST Collection at 1.56 lakh cores in January 2023 for the month December 2023, 2nd highest GST collection after October last year.

FII net seller in equity by 5439 crores, total sell figures for January 2023 are now at 41465 crores, highest sell figures in last 6 months.

Union Budget @ 11:00 AM, this is last full budget before general election next year.   

VIX @ 16.88: cool-off below 16 likely.

Approach on Indices: today & tomorrow, indices will react to Budget & US fed meeting outcome.  Nifty range expected in 17600 – 18100 & Banknifty range seen 40000 – 41500. We expect Indices to trade in this range, unless some major surprise.

Market View: We would prefer to go by strategy.  We would prefer to keep cash level around 25% to 35% and take fresh view once budget is concluded.  No bad news is good news.

SGX Nifty @ 17841.50 up 89.50 points at 8:30 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
1-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document