Month: February 2023

Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 28-Feb-23

Wall Street traded in narrow range as month end with all major economic data for February are out, next set of data starts from 1st week of March.  

F&O data: FII added 8472 short in index futures contract, Long: Short exposure stands at 17.45%:82.55%.  Nifty PCR @ 0.72 Vs 0.78 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 1.04 Vs 0.62 previous.

Global risk indicator: Dollar index cooled-off from above 105 to closed below 105 level.  US 10-year bond yield stable @ 3.92%.

VIX @ 13.88: back to below 14, indicate potential short covering.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat opening, technical setup do indicate potential short covering rally from current level.  Nifty @ 17376 & Banknifty @ 39970 remains important level to hold on closing basis.  

SGX Nifty @ 17490 up 2 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
28-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 27-Feb-23

Wall Street ended another session with more than 1% cut, NASDAQ was down 1.69%.  Core PCE Price index came @ 0.6% Vs estimate @ 0.4%.

Global market has renewed fear after concern of Core inflation, Core PPI & Core CPE price index showing pressure on inflation and renewed worries of more rate hike by US Fed.

ADANI group stocks continue to remain under pressure and retails participation has reduced in past few months.

VIX @ 14.18: cooled-off after testing level near to 16.

Approach on Indices: Indices trading at important support level and near to its 200-DMA, Nifty 200-DMA @ 17368 & Banknifty 200-DMA @ 39216, which will now be last hope for bulls.  We see limited downside from current level and continue to wait for fresh triggers.

SGX Nifty @ 17519 down 23.50 points at 8:40 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
27-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Research Report

Global Market – Core CPI Inflation data in US & Europe – Next hurdle?

Global Market – Core CPI Inflation data in US & Europe – Next hurdle?

This week, we will discuss Core CPI inflation data from US & Europe, which will set the stage from next monitory policy action by US Fed, BOE, ECB & BOJ.   Global market continues to find cues and navigate around whether there will be soft landing or hard landing.  

Core CPI, Core Retail sales, Core PPI & Core PCE Price Index

Today we will focus on data which does not include fuel and food price index in inflation, retail sales or Producer price index (PPI) data.  In recent times we have seen crude oil & natural gas prices has come down bringing some relief in US & European countries.

Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion

The strong data in this month will compel US Fed, BOE, ECB & BOJ to maintain its tight monitory policy.   Next round of central banks meeting starts from 

1) BOJ on 10-Mar-23, 
2) ECB on 16-Mar-23, 
3) US Fed on 22-Mar-23, 
4) BOE on 23-Mar-23 & 
5) RBI MPC on 3-Apr-23.  

We believe, globally market has not factored in continuation of strong monitory policy and another round of strong rate hike followed by hawkish commentary could be negative for risk-on sentiment and bring fresh round of downward move in global asset classes.  

We would turn cautious as after this week data which is clearly indicating inflation more sticky than earlier market estimate.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Global Market – Core CPI Inflation data in US & Europe – Next hurdle?.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

25-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Last week, we focused on 61.8% retracement level on Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970, Indices tested lower level & on Friday closed below this important support level.  This weekly closing is lowest closing since 24-Jan-23 (Hindenburg report on ADANI group stocks) & Budget on 1-Feb-23.  

Approach on Technical: Nifty & Banknifty closed below 61.8% retracement level and is showing weakness on chart.  Both indices are approaching their respective 200-DMA on Nifty @ 17368 & Banknifty @ 39216.

RSI & RSI average indicate oversold zone.  In case of any sign of trend reversal, short covering rally could bring Nifty up to 18070 & Banknifty cold rally up to 41567 in an optimistic or positive triggers.

Market View & Strategy

What led to correction of around 2% – 3% on Indian & US Indices – strong US Economic data, mainly Core CPI, Core retail sales, Core PPI & Core PCE Price Index which has turned the sentiment towards more tight monitory policy.  

We now would turn cautious and watchful inflation remains key concern and key central banks meeting in March 2023 starts from 10-Mar to 3-Apr 2023 and their focus has shifted to managing inflation.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
25-Feb-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 24-Feb-23

Wall Street manage to close in green as NVIDIA delivered upbeat guidance following quarterly result sending it shares up by 14%.  Prelim GDP for Q4 came at 2.7% Vs estimate of 2.9%.

Russia – Ukraine crisis completes 1 year, with no sign of end.  However, most commodities are trading below Russia-Ukraine crisis peak.

Globally market continue to take cues from fear of recession in global market and fear of higher interest rate, global cues remain mix.

VIX @ 15.08: Need to turn cautious only above 16.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate positive opening of around 40 – 50 points, Nifty & Banknifty is now within 2% from its 200-DMA.  We expect consolidation on indices to continue.

Market View: We believe, current market correction could be utilized to accumulate gradually as we see limited downside as we see global risk is over-played in Indian market.

SGX Nifty @ 17646.50 up 55.50 points at 8:40 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
24-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 23-Feb-23

Wall Street ended the day flat after big drop seen yesterday after WALMART result.  US FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday had little impact on market.

US FOMC Meeting minutes: all Fed official backed 25-bps hike, few officials could have favour 50-bps rate hike, saw ongoing rate hike appropriate.

RBI MPC Meeting minutes: rate hike should be tapered but pausing it would be pre-mature, says Governor Das.

VIX @ 15.59: need to turn further cautious above 16 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicating positive opening of around 40 – 50 points, Nifty & Banknifty closed at lowest level since ADANI story broke on 24-Jan & Budget on 1-Feb-23.  We expect these levels could hold, in any case of Indices weaken below this level could see further downside.

SGX Nifty @ 17605.50 up 48.50 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
23-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 22-Feb-23

Wall Street saw sharp sell-off after disappointing guidance from WALMART and weak numbers from HOMEDEPOT.  DOW30 down by 2.06% & NASDAQ down by 2.50%.

US 10-year bond yield near to 4%, as odds from rate hike in June has increased to 59%, market expecting 25-bps rate hike in March & May 2023 meeting.  

US Fed meeting minutes due to be released today.

VIX @ 14.01: expect to increase towards 16 level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate weak opening on back of global cues.  Indices on chart do indicate downward move, but we expect downside could be limited or could see surprise short covering by EOD.  With final 2 days for February F&O series, we expect downside to be limited.

Market View: We would continue to believe and focus on domestic story.  Recently market has failed to build on any positive momentum since Budget either due to news flow on ADANI group stocks or due to global weakness.

SGX Nifty @ 17765 down 80.50 points at 8:20 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
22-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 21-Feb-23

Wall Street was closed yesterday.  WALMART & CAPGEMINI are key results to watch out for today.

F&O data: FII added net short position by 7893 contracts in index futures.  Nifty PCR @ 0.74 Vs previous @ 0.88.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.54 Vs previous @ 0.60.

FII Long: Short exposure now stands at 21:94%: 78.06%. 

F&O data indicate: market is in highly oversold zone.

VIX @ 13.38: heading towards 14, within comfortable level.

Approach on Indices: SGX Nifty indicate flat start, F&O data indicate market in oversold zone.  Technical view showing possibility of short covering.  We expect short covering on Nifty @ 18070 & Banknifty could bounce to 41999.

SGX Nifty @ 17855.50 down 9.50 points at 8:45 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
21-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Daily Reports

Daily Report 20-Feb-23

Wall Street ended mixed with DOW30 ended with gain of 0.39%, while S&P500 & NASDAQ ended in red.

F&O data – last week for February 2023 series: FII added net short position by 11340 contracts in Index futures.  

Nifty PCR @ 0.88 Vs 1.04 previous.  Banknifty PCR @ 0.60.  Both indices PCR indicates in oversold zone, PCR could go further low.  

Market this week remain will focus on F&O expiry with US Fed meeting minutes to be released on 22-Feb-23.

VIX @ 13.08: VIX made low of around 12, moving towards 14.

Approach on Indices: Indices would continue to trade in narrow range, downside from current level looks limited and could find support around Nifty @ 17817 & Banknifty around 40769.  Indices around this support level could provide fresh entry opportunity.

SGX Nifty @ 17967.50 up 30.50 points at 8:00 AM

Click on the attachment to read the full report:
20-Feb-23 Daily-Report.pdf
View Document
Categories
Weekly Reports

18-Feb-23 Technical & Fundamental Insight

Last week – review

Indices traded in narrow range; one attempt was made to break-out on upside but failed.  Nifty closed above 18000 psychological level 2 days but failed to give convincing break-out.  ADANI group stocks continue to remains in focus but volatility has reduced.

Approach on Technical: Today we are taking broader view on Nifty & Banknifty chart when major uptrend started from September 2022 end till mid of December 2022.

We would assume that Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970 are 61.8% retracement level of rally on Nifty from 16747 to 18887 & Banknifty rally from 37386 to 44151.  Indices are in consolidation zone and we see potential of fresh uptrend till 61.8% retracement levels hold.

Fundamental Insight

1) India’s Forex Reserves Drop The Most In Over 10 Months To $567 Billion
2) Budget 2023 To Boost India Growth To 7% In FY24: RBI Bulletin

The tax changes proposed in the budget will put at least Rs 35,000 crore in the hands of households, the central bank said. The implications of these three aspects on the outlook for growth are profound.

Market View & Strategy

As result season Q3FY23 ends, there is no major positive or negative surprise.  Currently what we could term as potential positive triggers are 1) Budget – Pro-growth, 2) Global energy prices are coming down, 3) Real interest rate in India remains positive, that is Repo rate – inflation. 

We have continued to remain bullish and would continue to increase exposure around 90% to 95% level in our long only concept as we would bet on rally from current level.


Click on the attachment to read the full report:
18-Feb-23 Fundamental & Technical Insight.pdf
View Document