| Indian Market | 18-Feb-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty | 17276.30 | -98.45 | -0.578% |
| Sensex | 57832.97 | -319.95 | -0.55% |
| Banknifty | 37599.15 | -918.10 | -2.38% |
| Indian Market | 18-Feb-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Other Indices | Close | Change | % chg |
| Nifty Mid-Cap 100 | 29201.30 | -528.10 | -1.78% |
| Nifty Small-Cap 100 | 10441.80 | -251.50 | -2.35% |
| India VIX | 22.01 | 3.33 | 17.83% |
| US Market | 18-Feb-22 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Change | Close | Change | % chg |
| Dow 30 | 34079.18 | -658.88 | -1.90% |
| S&P 500 | 4348.87 | -69.77 | -1.58% |
| Nasdaq | 13548.07 | -243.08 | -1.76% |
| Currency / Commodity | 18-Feb-22 |
|---|---|
| Indices | Current |
| USD/INR | 74.6475 |
| EUR/INR | 84.7180 |
| Dollar Index | 96.105 |
| US 10-year bond | 1.927 % |
| WTI Crude Oil | $ 91.80 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $ 93.80 |
| Gold | $ 1900.80 |
| Bitcoin | $ 38,228 |
| FII / DII Activity | 18-Feb-22 | Rs. (In Crores) |
|---|---|---|
| (Weekly - Prov) | Buy | Sell |
| FII | 12215.48 | |
| DII | 10592.21 |
Technical Insight
- Nifty fall from 18350 to 16833 continues to trade in narrow range expected to give decisive break on either direction.
- While analyzing, we are also keeping in mind that last week started with news on Russia-Ukraine tension, despite of high volatility -Nifty manage to hold on to crucial level of 16833 taking support near 200-DMA @ 16799.
- Nifty 100-DMA comes at 17617 and 200-DMA comes at 16851. Nifty trading in this range of 18 – 20 trading days. We expect Nifty to give move within next 2 weeks.
- Banknifty RSI @ 47.55 & RSI average 50.83. Banknifty 100-DMA @ 37765 & 200-DMA @ 36554. We see this as classic case of base formation and ready for up move.
- Strategy on technical view: Bottom formation process underway and will wait for firm indication to go aggressive long.
Fundamental Insight
- This week in fundamental insight, we would like to highlight or to recall the fundamental value of the business rather than get carried away by the price movement happening currently. Volatility in market is mainly due to 2 reason – first is Russia-Ukraine crisis and the second is ongoing buzz on next move by US FOMC meeting on 15-16 March 2022
- Q3FY22 result season concluded this week, normally companies announce quarterly result within 45 days of quarter end.
- Indian IT companies are different from tech companies in US and new age tech companies or Fin-Tech companies.
- Budget announce on 1-Feb-22 reiterated government fiscal expansion policy. RBI MPC Policy on 10-Feb-22 maintained accommodative stance. At some point these factors will come in focus and short-term news and events gets over.
- Government cancels remaining FY22 gilt switch auctions as Budget aim complete: RBI. 10-year G-Sec closed at 6.64%.
- FII continue its selling sphere so far for the month of February 2022 – FII sold 21,928 crores and starting from 1-Oct-21 to 18-Feb-22: FII sold 1.64 lakh crores in equity market.
- We would like to highlight – in first 2 weeks of January where Nifty made a sharp rally from sub 17000 level to 18350 level in just 14 – 17 trading days, FII turned buyer in 4 – 5 trading days.
Market View & Strategy
- Any major dip due to new of war and geo-political tension – this could well turn out to be a buying opportunity – “Value Buying”. This may come another 7 – 10 percent correction form current level.
- So now the important question comes to our mind is “Who blinks first”. We see major decisive move till the end of financial year March 2022 and clear indication of that move is expected in next 2 weeks.
- In short term we would prefer to play via Future & Options through proper hedging and due risk management. Volatility could well turn out to be an opportunity if goes in favour.
- We firmly believe in playing on risk-reward as news from Russia-Ukraine is beyond analysis or prediction, still market will give huge swing as we have seen volatility last week.
Disclaimer: The market view and updates we are sharing are true to the best of our knowledge and sharing just for information purpose and any action would be purely investor’s own responsibility. Investor are advised to take necessary guidance from certified adviser and hence we will not be responsible for any profit or loss incurred due it. We do not have PMS license and we are not recommending anything to buy or sell.
