Last week – review
If Friday’s up move is not considered, indices were flat for this week and continue to trade in narrow range, we expected decisive move but market continue to trade in range as market seen selling pressure on Wednesday & Thursday due to F&O expiry. Friday’s move came on back of light position carry forward to September series in 2nd half.
Technical Insight
• Nifty range for this week seen as 19319 to 19674. Nifty likely to cross 19478 and test 19674 on upside while Nifty below 19319 could be seen as weakness and further downside possible.
• Banknifty range for this week 44030 to 45219. Banknifty above 44578 could see fresh round of up move which could test 45219.
Approach on Technical: Technical continue to remain in range with no clear break-out in either direction. We continue to expect break-out in next week as F&O expiry for August series is over.
Nifty range for this week seen at 19319 to 19674 & Banknifty range for this week seen at 44030 to 45219. Nifty above 19478 & Banknifty above 44578 could be seen as fresh round of up move which could test upper range on Nifty @ 19674 & Banknifty @ 45219.
Fundamental Insight
1) Manufacturing PMI Rises To Three-Month High Of 58.6 In August
2) India Sees Russian Oil Ebbing As Rival Suppliers Step Up
3) Economy & Finance El Nino, Food Inflation To Delay RBI’s Easing Of Monetary Policy: Moody’s
Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy
F&O expiry for August series has flat to negative after 4 months gain from March 2023. F&O position remain light going into September series as market has seen rally on 1st day of September month & F&O series.
Meanwhile India continues to remain in its own zone of high domestic consumption. RBI continue to remain vigilant as El-Nino could impact food inflation in near term and RBI may keep interest rate high going into festive season.
We have turned bullish and kept our investment unchanged for this week, our view remains bullish and continue to focus on deployment of fund which is available. We expect September month to remain positive after consolidation seen in current month.