Last week – review
Indices traded in narrow range; one attempt was made to break-out on upside but failed. Nifty closed above 18000 psychological level 2 days but failed to give convincing break-out. ADANI group stocks continue to remains in focus but volatility has reduced.
Approach on Technical: Today we are taking broader view on Nifty & Banknifty chart when major uptrend started from September 2022 end till mid of December 2022.
We would assume that Nifty @ 17565 & Banknifty @ 39970 are 61.8% retracement level of rally on Nifty from 16747 to 18887 & Banknifty rally from 37386 to 44151. Indices are in consolidation zone and we see potential of fresh uptrend till 61.8% retracement levels hold.
Fundamental Insight
1) India’s Forex Reserves Drop The Most In Over 10 Months To $567 Billion
2) Budget 2023 To Boost India Growth To 7% In FY24: RBI Bulletin
The tax changes proposed in the budget will put at least Rs 35,000 crore in the hands of households, the central bank said. The implications of these three aspects on the outlook for growth are profound.
Market View & Strategy
As result season Q3FY23 ends, there is no major positive or negative surprise. Currently what we could term as potential positive triggers are 1) Budget – Pro-growth, 2) Global energy prices are coming down, 3) Real interest rate in India remains positive, that is Repo rate – inflation.
We have continued to remain bullish and would continue to increase exposure around 90% to 95% level in our long only concept as we would bet on rally from current level.